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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Offseason Defense Planning, Defensemen in 2013 Draft
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jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 3 @ 9:42 AM ET
I'd think maybe you start at Laughton or Cousins and hammer out a deal, if you're targeting prospects like those.
- BulliesPhan87

Exactly.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 3 @ 9:42 AM ET
Just for clarification, I said include Couts in a package for Weber. So you are saying that most would have been ok with Couts, Read, Simmonds and two firsts? (As an example). In other words, any package that included Couts but not with Schenn.


- TheGreat28


I would not be okay with that package for Weber. It's too much.


Do you think that any team will trade a top-tier young d-man (2/3 years of NHL experience) for a player who is strong defensively but whose offensive game is purely "potential" at this point?

If I remember correctly, few people wanted to trade him straight up for Hamilton or PK Subban during the lockout. In another year they will be the next Pietrangelo or OEK. At some point the Flyers will have to "gamble" on a prospect if they want a 1/2 dman, in my opinion.

- TheGreat28



It depends on need. If a team has a surplus of one thing, and a need in another, it's possible.
Couturier is not a player you trade in a gamble in my opinion.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 3 @ 9:44 AM ET
Here is the best part about all of this BS... We could keep Couts, not make any trades and end up getting exactly what we need.... IN THE DRAFT.

Say we do end up drafting Pulock we get a guy who scored 147 points in the WHL and was a plus 46.

Hell i'd take Pulock over Rielly in a heartbeat anyway...

- jak521

I don't know much about Reilly, and only what I've read about Pulock. But I agree, why not see where the chips fall at the draft? That's not to say I'm totally opposed to a trade, I just prefer it makes more sense than trading down from a proven NHLer to an unproven prospect, highly anticipated though he may (or may not) be.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 3 @ 9:45 AM ET
If you're not ready to judge Couturier's offensive upside, who just finished his 2nd NHL Season, then it makes zero sense that you would be willing to trade him for Rielly. Are you ready to judge Rielly's upside? Who has playerd zero NHL games.
- MJL


Would you trade Couturier straight up for Seth Jones? Because he hasn't played an NHL game either.

I think there is a logical inconsistency to say keep Couturier and not trade him for a top prospect because he is an established nhl forward with a high-end ceiling when that ceiling is solely predicated upon his offensive potential. He could just as easily end up as a Handzus type player. Would you have trade Handzus for Neidermayer back in 2006?
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 3 @ 9:47 AM ET
The whole idea of a face saving trade is to pay less then you were willing to originally, but something just to stay in good graces... Why trades couts in that scenario when you could trade other less highly rated players.

Everyone thought we had Weber in the bag.

- jak521


Because Read/Simmonds and a first wasn't going to get Weber. Considering the number of offer sheets that have not been matched, I think we were vastly overstating the likelihood that we had him in the bag.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 3 @ 9:52 AM ET
Would you trade Couturier straight up for Seth Jones? Because he hasn't played an NHL game either.

I think there is a logical inconsistency to say keep Couturier and not trade him for a top prospect because he is an established nhl forward with a high-end ceiling when that ceiling is solely predicated upon his offensive potential. He could just as easily end up as a Handzus type player. Would you have trade Handzus for Neidermayer back in 2006?

- TheGreat28



Yes, I probably would. Seth Jones is projected to be a franchise defenseman, and the #1 overall pick. Are you saying that Rielly is equal to that? Otherwise that reply makes no sense.

Again, in my opinion you're incorrect , in stating that Couturier's ceiling is soley predicated upon his offensive potential. Couturier has clearly shown he has outstanding Hockey sense, and is already capable of matching up and playing against NHL Superstars such as Malkin in a playoff setting. He has already proven he can play in the NHL.

What does Rielly have that is equal or on par with Couturier?

Your question of Handzus for Neidermayer, in my opinion, doesn't make sense and is not a comparable situation.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

May 3 @ 9:52 AM ET
Happy Birthday Ron Hextall!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8_wrJpRDaU
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

May 3 @ 9:55 AM ET
Happy Birthday Ron Hextall!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8_wrJpRDaU

- johndewar


Next GM of the Philadelphia Flyers
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 3 @ 9:55 AM ET
Would you trade Couturier straight up for Seth Jones? Because he hasn't played an NHL game either.

I think there is a logical inconsistency to say keep Couturier and not trade him for a top prospect because he is an established nhl forward with a high-end ceiling when that ceiling is solely predicated upon his offensive potential. He could just as easily end up as a Handzus type player. Would you have trade Handzus for Neidermayer back in 2006?

- TheGreat28

There is no logical inconsistency here. There's simply one player, who has potential but no NHL experience, and another player, who has both potential and a couple solid seasons worth of NHL experience. Couturier is a more proven commodity, he's more of a known. Trading him for an unproven commodity would be irresponsible.
GirouxForTheShow
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Fuck you raff
Joined: 01.04.2009

May 3 @ 9:57 AM ET
There is no logical inconsistency here. There's simply one player, who has potential but no NHL experience, and another player, who has both potential and a couple solid seasons worth of NHL experience. Couturier is a more proven commodity, he's more of a known. Trading him for an unproven commodity would be irresponsible.
- BulliesPhan87


I think I'd trade him to COL for the 1st overall, but I mean COL wouldn't do that and Seth Jones is projected to be a generational talent.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 3 @ 9:58 AM ET
There is no logical inconsistency here. There's simply one player, who has potential but no NHL experience, and another player, who has both potential and a couple solid seasons worth of NHL experience. Couturier is a more proven commodity, he's more of a known. Trading him for an unproven commodity would be irresponsible.
- BulliesPhan87

But thats the ONLY way to get a young d-man
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 3 @ 9:58 AM ET
Here is the best part about all of this BS... We could keep Couts, not make any trades and end up getting exactly what we need.... IN THE DRAFT.

Say we do end up drafting Pulock we get a guy who scored 147 points in the WHL and was a plus 46.

Hell i'd take Pulock over Rielly in a heartbeat anyway...

- jak521


Here's my worry - that Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen and Pulock ALL go in the top 10. I really don't want Monahan or Shinkaruk for the Flyers - good players, just redundant or with risks. I'd be ok with Nichuschkin or Zykov since they are pure wingers...but I really want one of those 4 dmen. I'd consider trading down if they are not available and they could get a really good pick (not for marginal pick).
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 3 @ 9:59 AM ET
I think I'd trade him to COL for the 1st overall, but I mean COL wouldn't do that and Seth Jones is projected to be a generational talent.
- GirouxForTheShow

I dont know about that. Seth Jones is projected to be the #1 pick in a solid draft. I honestly dont see ANY generational talents in this draft though.

Generational talents are guys like Gretzky, Mario, Crosby.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

May 3 @ 10:01 AM ET
Considering that half the posters here have a bromance with Couturier, just about any proposal you make is going to get crapped on . The prevailing opinion last July was there no way the Flyers should trade Couts in a deal for Weber, so that tells you something.

Personally, I think a 1/2 defenseman trumps a selke winner in today's nhl. So the only issue with Rielly or any other prospect not in nhl is whether he is likely to reach that level. But as Bill points out in his blog, teams value young, talented NHL-proven D (seemingly much more than the Flyers) and are loathe to part with them. So, that begs the question ( ), how do you get one?

They will likely either need to gamble on a player like Rielly, and give up a lot in a trade, or start drafting them. I would do Rielly or Hamilton in a heartbeat for Couts. But I'd be willing to bet that Leafs wouldn't trade Rielly straight up for Couts; Boston wouldn't trade Hamilton for him; and same for Reinhart, Murray, etc.

- TheGreat28

When did you poll us to arrive at the conclusion of half the posters?

How is it that a defense of keeping a young center instead of trading him away is readily dismissed as a "bromance" just because they want him on the team?

I'm not loathe to trading for D but Couturier is not the forward I shop to do it. He & Giroux should be cornerstones.

GirouxForTheShow
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Fuck you raff
Joined: 01.04.2009

May 3 @ 10:02 AM ET
I dont know about that. Seth Jones is projected to be the #1 pick in a solid draft. I honestly dont see ANY generational talents in this draft though.

Generational talents are guys like Gretzky, Mario, Crosby.

- jak521


Okay, I'll give you that. He is at least projected to be a franchise 1st pairing defenseman who is equally good on both sides of the puck. Although unproven, his projection outweighs his lack of experience to me, at least in a trade straight up for Couturier.

Although, he could be a generational talent in 5 years. What do you know?
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 3 @ 10:03 AM ET
Yes, I probably would. Seth Jones is projected to be a franchise defenseman, and the #1 overall pick. Are you saying that Rielly is equal to that? Otherwise that reply makes no sense.

Again, in my opinion you're incorrect , in stating that Couturier's ceiling is soley predicated upon his offensive potential. Couturier has clearly shown he has outstanding Hockey sense, and is already capable of matching up and playing against NHL Superstars such as Malkin in a playoff setting. He has already proven he can play in the NHL.

What does Rielly have that is equal or on par with Couturier?

Your question of Handzus for Neidermayer, in my opinion, doesn't make sense and is not a comparable situation.

- MJL


Rielly may not be a franchise dman on the order of jones, weber, chara, oek, etc. But I think he is only a step down.

At the end of the day, it's quite simple - I value a 1/2 dman over a selke winning forward. You can change the names of any of the players. I valued Howe/Desjardins over Brindamour/Primeau as a point of reference.

I'm just saying you can't ding Rielly on potential, which assumes he may not reach it, but automatically assume that Couturier reaches his.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

May 3 @ 10:03 AM ET
I dont know about that. Seth Jones is projected to be the #1 pick in a solid draft. I honestly dont see ANY generational talents in this draft though.

Generational talents are guys like Gretzky, Mario, Crosby.

- jak521


and brian propp.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

May 3 @ 10:03 AM ET
Wrong. The prevailing opinion was that Couts, Schenn + shouldnt even be thought of when you have the ability to OS Weber. Thats exactly what the Flyers did.... And almost everyone was surprised that Nashville matched.


EDIT: I also love how you have so eloquently labeled Cout's fans as having a "bromance". Nope... its just not every day that one of the better defensive forwards in the game who also has the skill set to be a very good offensive forward (at age 19!) falls into your lap. It takes an educated fan to know what you have before its gone.

- jak521

this post
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 3 @ 10:07 AM ET
Here's my worry - that Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen and Pulock ALL go in the top 10. I really don't want Monahan or Shinkaruk for the Flyers - good players, just redundant or with risks. I'd be ok with Nichuschkin or Zykov since they are pure wingers...but I really want one of those 4 dmen. I'd consider trading down if they are not available and they could get a really good pick (not for marginal pick).
- TheGreat28

I have Nurse going as the 2nd d-man 7th overall to the Oilers.. and the third d-man being Pulock to the Flyers...

Looking at the draft... a lot of the teams before us need forwards.. and the top 15 players are so closely ranked at it wouldnt be going off the board the Sabres took Monahan and NJ took Shinkaruk.. Dallas worries me though..
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

May 3 @ 10:09 AM ET
I'd think maybe you start at Laughton or Cousins and hammer out a deal, if you're targeting prospects like those.
- BulliesPhan87


Do you think Cousins gets you one of the top young defense prospects not in the NHL? Laughton?

And I'm not trying to bash you by the way. I think we (myself included) have a tendency to overrate our prospects.
GirouxForTheShow
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Fuck you raff
Joined: 01.04.2009

May 3 @ 10:11 AM ET
When did you poll us to arrive at the conclusion of half the posters?

How is it that a defense of keeping a young center instead of trading him away is readily dismissed as a "bromance" just because they want him on the team?

I'm not loathe to trading for D but Couturier is not the forward I shop to do it. He & Giroux should be cornerstones.

- Flyskippy


The rumo(u)red deal was Couts, Schenn, 1st rounder+. That's a deal I wouldn't make. Straight up? Yes, probably. But just because I don't trade Couts Schenn++ doesn't mean Couturier is automatic bromance.

And for the record, he did practically shut Malkin down in those playoffs. That deserves at least bromance consideration.
Flyskippy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ignoreland, GA
Joined: 11.04.2005

May 3 @ 10:12 AM ET
Next GM of the Philadelphia Flyers
- bradleyc4

Not a matter of if, but when...

Hextall & Ruff '14
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 3 @ 10:12 AM ET
Rielly may not be a franchise dman on the order of jones, weber, chara, oek, etc. But I think he is only a step down.

At the end of the day, it's quite simple - I value a 1/2 dman over a selke winning forward. You can change the names of any of the players. I valued Howe/Desjardins over Brindamour/Primeau as a point of reference.

I'm just saying you can't ding Rielly on potential, which assumes he may not reach it, but automatically assume that Couturier reaches his.

- TheGreat28

You have sample (albeit small) of professional hockey for Reilly... and to be honest, it didnt jump out to me as a #1-2 offensive d-man. He had 3 points in 17 games. If he was ready to make the jump to the #1-2 d-man spot he would have been putting up points like Justin Schultz.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 3 @ 10:14 AM ET
Do you think Cousins gets you one of the top young defense prospects not in the NHL? Laughton?

And I'm not trying to bash you by the way. I think we (myself included) have a tendency to overrate our prospects.

- TheGreat28

If you would have read the post... you would see he said "start" with them.

Obviously that wouldnt likely cut it. But to just go the total other end of the insanity spectrum and trade a centerpiece to your team for a guy who likley wont play in the NHL for another year or two is seriously not very sensible.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 3 @ 10:17 AM ET
Rielly may not be a franchise dman on the order of jones, weber, chara, oek, etc. But I think he is only a step down.

At the end of the day, it's quite simple - I value a 1/2 dman over a selke winning forward. You can change the names of any of the players. I valued Howe/Desjardins over Brindamour/Primeau as a point of reference.

I'm just saying you can't ding Rielly on potential, which assumes he may not reach it, but automatically assume that Couturier reaches his.

- TheGreat28



If an when Rielly becomes a 1/2 D man in the NHL, you might have a point. None of the comparisons you are offering are comparable to the Couturier for Rielly trade.

Nobody, myself included has assumed that Couturier will reach his potential, and that Rielly won't. That's the point you're missing. What is being considered is that Couturier has already established himself as an NHL player. Rielly has not.
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