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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Patience and Prospects
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flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Mar 20 @ 9:55 AM ET
Hard to believe any players that get bought out by other teams will be any good. There'd be a reason for buying them out...
- NickTheKid87


not true -- heavy contracts could be reason for buy out
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

Mar 20 @ 9:55 AM ET
suffer for 3 years and dominate for 10..... they already have schennx2,couts, giroux...now they need a defenseman...i would absolutely tank the season for jones...


4 to 5 years to develop....fine by me ...

Giroux will be 29/30
scenns wil be 27/28
couts will be 25.....

thats the big picture. No need to trade anyone just suck really bad for 19 games....i mean come one is druin or mackinon a bad cancellation prize? HELL NO.

- Philly1980


Honestly I view Voracek as being a bigger requirement to our core then either Schenn or Couturier.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 20 @ 9:55 AM ET
It's basically the issue. I think as he matures more, there is potential to play limited time on the first pairings, but he can't be that guy. Just not his game.
- Flyers_V88

What do you mean matures more? He is 28 years old! What we see is what we are gonna get.. He hasnt had a single PP point in over three years. He cant play that position. He doesnt wrack up assists, even secondary, which would be potentially indicative of his puck moving skills. He's not a puck mover.. In order to be a true top pairing guy you either have to be a supremely skilled shutdown d-man (who still has mobility and the ability to get the puck up ice fast) or you are the total package d-man. Coburn is neither of those. Im not just picking on the guy either.. hell two seasons ago I was pushing for them to give him some PP time to see what he could do.

My biggest problem with Coburn is that if he isnt gonna be producing offensively.. with his gift of size and speed.. he needs to be a defensive stalwart.. It just isnt happening. He leads the NHL in minor penalties, and is in the bottom 5 in +-
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:56 AM ET
not true -- heavy contracts could be reason for buy out
- flyersfan51


Who has a heavy contract that is more than a role player that will get bought out?
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 20 @ 9:57 AM ET
Honestly I view Voracek as being a bigger requirement to our core then either Schenn or Couturier.
- opeth_pa

exactly or voracek or read....they just need to tank this year...i think they will be set....anyway if they get the top 1 pick....the value of that pick would be astronmical...basically they could have most #1 guys just for that pick.


you dont think nashville unloads:

Weber for a package containing Jones/Mackinon + read +
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:57 AM ET
It's basically the issue. I think as he matures more, there is potential to play limited time on the first pairings, but he can't be that guy. Just not his game.
- Flyers_V88


His tackling technique has matured nicely, helping him to lead the NHL in minor penalties this season.
Flyers_V88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ajax, ON
Joined: 02.26.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:57 AM ET
I would hate a deadline deal unless they are selling. I would prefer if all moves came in the offseason otherwise.
- NickTheKid87

Yeah I agree for sure. I hope they try and unload assets at the deadline, assuming we don't go on a savage winning streak, and re-tool in the summertime. I just hope the move(s) Holmer does potentially make are really planned and evaluated. I don't think the franchise can afford to mis-calculate on a big move. Our AHL depth is almost non-existent, and we don't have the lucury of cap space.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 20 @ 9:58 AM ET
I highly doubt Richards, Hossa and Luongo get bought out. They would trade those guys long before buying them out.
- NickTheKid87


No one wants their contracts.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 9:59 AM ET
No one wants their contracts.
- Feanor


You honestly think they couldn't find a taker for any of those players? I would be shocked. Those teams could eat some of the cap hit as well and still get a good return.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Mar 20 @ 9:59 AM ET
Last week on NHL Live EJ Hradek had a top 5 list of buyout candidates.

5. Briere
4. Brad Richards
3. Hossa
2. Luongo
1. Bryzgalov

Those middle three players would all be worth considering signing to short term deals, if the price was right.

- Feanor


I'd flip Bryz and Briere on this list. Everyone likes to flip out the "Buy out Bryz" line with no consideration as to who they'd put in his place.

Really, the whole "Flyers and Goalies" bromide is just tired amongst national hockey types.

Aside: I think EJ Hradek is awful.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Mar 20 @ 10:00 AM ET
Here is a hypothetical if the flyers do get the #1 overall pick in this years draft

What #1 NHL ready defenseman could they get for it?
Flyers_V88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ajax, ON
Joined: 02.26.2013

Mar 20 @ 10:01 AM ET
What do you mean matures more? He is 28 years old! What we see is what we are gonna get.. He hasnt had a single PP point in over three years. He cant play that position. He doesnt wrack up assists, even secondary, which would be potentially indicative of his puck moving skills. He's not a puck mover.. In order to be a true top pairing guy you either have to be a supremely skilled shutdown d-man (who still has mobility and the ability to get the puck up ice fast) or you are the total package d-man. Coburn is neither of those. Im not just picking on the guy either.. hell two seasons ago I was pushing for them to give him some PP time to see what he could do.

My biggest problem with Coburn is that if he isnt gonna be producing offensively.. with his gift of size and speed.. he needs to be a defensive stalwart.. It just isnt happening. He leads the NHL in minor penalties, and is in the bottom 5 in +-

- jak521

I meant mature in more of an efficiency sense. Typically, as players age, their skills flat-line by their mid-20s, and from there it's a matter of developing better hockey IQ and having a better ability to read plays and know where to be and when to exert, when not to, etc.
steelydan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 04.16.2009

Mar 20 @ 10:01 AM ET
The Flyers position of strength here is not a glutton of forward talent, but rather having the multiple 2nd-pairing defensemen that fit the same prototype:

Coburn, Meszaros, Grossmann, and L. Schenn.

Here we have 4 players that all have a similar game, though certain aspects of the players' games are stronger than others. Coburn/Meszaros have skating ability with offensive potential, whereas Schenn/Grossmann have a mean streak and excel as stay-at-home defensemen type.

That being said, I think stay-at-home guys are more valuable down the stretch, especially for playoff runs. Offense from the blue-line is a key part to any team's success, but having responsible guys who play smart will prove more important in key situations. You just have to expect that your go-to goal-scorers (Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Simmonds, Jake) will pot you that big goal.

Therefore, I would think the Flyers benefit the most from dealing Coburn/Meszaros, be it during the TDL or draft. People can argue which one has more potential, etc.; but I wouldn't lose sleep over one or the other. Of course Briere, Gagne, Fed, etc. will be valuable TDL pieces as well and some may fetch a bigger return, there has to be a concerted effort from the Front Office to try and acquire a defenseman that has a healthy mix of offense, speed, and responsibility.


johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Mar 20 @ 10:03 AM ET
You honestly think they couldn't find a taker for any of those players? I would be shocked. Those teams could eat some of the cap hit as well and still get a good return.
- NickTheKid87


Marian Hossa has always been one of my favorite players to watch. Hated when he was on the Pens.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 10:03 AM ET
The Flyers position of strength here is not a glutton of forward talent, but rather having the multiple 2nd-pairing defensemen that fit the same prototype:

Coburn, Meszaros, Grossmann, and L. Schenn.

Here we have 4 players that all have a similar game, though certain aspects of the players' games are stronger than others. Coburn/Meszaros have skating ability with offensive potential, whereas Schenn/Grossmann have a mean streak and excel as stay-at-home defensemen type.

That being said, I think stay-at-home guys are more valuable down the stretch, especially for playoff runs. Offense from the blue-line is a key part to any team's success, but having responsible guys who play smart will prove more important in key situations. You just have to expect that your go-to goal-scorers (Giroux, Briere, Schenn, Simmonds, Jake) will pot you that big goal.

Therefore, I would think the Flyers benefit the most from dealing Coburn/Meszaros, be it during the TDL or draft. People can argue which one has more potential, etc.; but I wouldn't lose sleep over one or the other. Of course Briere, Gagne, Fed, etc. will be valuable TDL pieces as well and some may fetch a bigger return, there has to be a concerted effort from the Front Office to try and acquire a defenseman that has a healthy mix of offense, speed, and responsibility.

- steelydan


Mesz isn't really the same kind of dman as the other 3. He is mobile and has a big shot. He's not a stay at home guy. He's more of a two way dman. The other 3 are stay at home. Coburn doesn't really have much offensive potential also.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 10:05 AM ET
Marian Hossa has always been one of my favorite players to watch. Hated when he was on the Pens.
- johndewar


He's still a good player even with the huge deal. I could see a contender wanting him. I think buying him out would be a worst case scenario.
nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Mar 20 @ 10:05 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Patience and Prospects
- bmeltzer



I couldn't agree more. the Flyers, probably because of Snider's desire to win another cup, patience or lack of, has been a source of my frustration. I appreciate that we have an owner who spends and wants to win more than anything but i truly believe it take patience and building thru the draft. I realize preaching patience when the Flyers haven't won a cup in, oh what feels like an eternity, seems silly but I think the lack of patience at times has hindered the organization. they built some great teams in the 70's and 80's that way. And after the season that we all denied every happened Snider swore up and down that the Flyers would "go back to grassroots" and never again trade kids or picks. ummmmm ok.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Mar 20 @ 10:08 AM ET
I highly doubt Richards, Hossa and Luongo get bought out. They would trade those guys long before buying them out.
- NickTheKid87


You asked for candidates.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Mar 20 @ 10:08 AM ET
You honestly think they couldn't find a taker for any of those players? I would be shocked. Those teams could eat some of the cap hit as well and still get a good return.
- NickTheKid87


The problem is players like Hossa and Luongo are unlikely to be playing in the last years of their current deals, and whatever team has them will have a portion of their contract counting against the cap for years after they have retired.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcs...ongo-rule-in-the-new-cba/

If Hossa retired after the 2016-17 season when he will be 38, Chicago would be charged $17.1 million spread evenly against their cap for the next four seasons.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Mar 20 @ 10:09 AM ET
You honestly think they couldn't find a taker for any of those players? I would be shocked. Those teams could eat some of the cap hit as well and still get a good return.
- NickTheKid87


Luongo would be long gone from V if they had a taker earlier in the season.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 20 @ 10:09 AM ET
I meant mature in more of an efficiency sense. Typically, as players age, their skills flat-line by their mid-20s, and from there it's a matter of developing better hockey IQ and having a better ability to read plays and know where to be and when to exert, when not to, etc.
- Flyers_V88

i still disagree.. I understand guys become a bit more savvy, but i dont think coburn is gonna turn into one of those guys.. just my opinion though. For years we have all talked about it his raw talent.. His size and speed are a rare combo for a d-man.. however, he has never been able to put it all together (aside from his first full seasons here). He is now in his seventh full season.. Will he just start to learn the game now? I dont think so.. Do I think he is as bad as he has been this season.. No way! But to be honest.. I dont think he will ever be a true 2-way guy.. and I dont think he will ever be a great shutdown d-man.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Mar 20 @ 10:12 AM ET
The problem is players like Hossa and Luongo are unlikely to be playing in the last years of their current deals, and whatever team has them will have a portion of their contract counting against the cap for years after they have retired.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcs...ongo-rule-in-the-new-cba/

If Hossa retired after the 2016-17 season when he will be 38, Chicago would be charged $17.1 million spread evenly against their cap for the next four seasons.

- Feanor


Yeah I know about that. I guess what I am saying is that I think we, as fans, think the chances of teams using the buyout(s) is greater than it actually is. Just my opinion of the matter.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Mar 20 @ 10:12 AM ET
Good stuff, Mr. Meltzer.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Mar 20 @ 10:18 AM ET
Good stuff, Mr. Meltzer.
- BulliesPhan87

Zip it pal
nastyflyergirl
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: this space for rent, PA
Joined: 09.19.2006

Mar 20 @ 10:19 AM ET
What a fantastic read!

The lack of patience has been our best friend and worst enemy. We have one of the greatest records of all time (win%). We are practically in the playoffs EVERY year.. and very rarely are projected to not make the playoffs. That is because we are always in a win now state of mind.

Its our worst enemy because we never allow our players to fully blossom before moving them for more established (but often lesser skilled/lower ceiling) players. For example...

Bernie Parent in 1971... traded after 3 and a half mediocre seasons.. Imagine if he was never brought back a few seasons later where he lead the team to our only two cups.

JJ Daigneault- played 900 career NHL games... traded for a guy who ended playing 25...

Scott Mellanby and Craig Berube traded for Dave Brown and the rights to Jari Kurri (who never played a game for the Flyers)... Mellanby would go on to play another 15 seasons in the NHL

Justin Williams for Danny Markov.. and I understand that we needed defense to make a push for the cup... however.. Williams: 2 cups - Flyers:0

Patrick Sharp for Matt Ellison

Dennis Seidenberg for Peter Nedved

Kris Versteeg for a 2nd rd pick

Sergei Bobrovsky

I dont want to add Couts or Schenn to that list.

- jak521



not to mention the way they trade away draft picks, esp 1st and 2nd rounders
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