The Leafs are not going to get anyone as good as Kessel in return. Re-sign Kessel and call it a day.

If he doesn't sign by draft day it'd probably be unwise not to trade him but they'd only be cutting their losses at that point. It's not a good "Plan A" move.

I'd rather build around Kessel at age 26-27 than build around whatever 18 year old busts they'd get in return. You also don't just trade your best player when he's still young so you get a better draft pick either. That's asinine.

If you want to get a good pick trade Phaneuf, Kulemin, Lupul, or whoever once you have Kessel on a deal. Guarantee they'd be a bottom 5 team for years if they did that and they'd still have Kessel.

If you think the team wouldn't compete in 8 years (potentially the length of the next Kessel deal) then they're screwed anyway since guys like Rielly, JVR, Gardiner, Kadri, etc could all leave anyway and their window would be closed again.

The Leafs are not going to get anyone as good as Kessel in return. Re-sign Kessel and call it a day.

If he doesn't sign by draft day it'd probably be unwise not to trade him but they'd only be cutting their losses at that point. It's not a good "Plan A" move.

I'd rather build around Kessel at age 26-27 than build around whatever 18 year old busts they'd get in return. You also don't just trade your best player when he's still young so you get a better draft pick either. That's asinine.

If you want to get a good pick trade Phaneuf, Kulemin, Lupul, or whoever once you have Kessel on a deal. Guarantee they'd be a bottom 5 team for years if they did that and they'd still have Kessel.

If you think the team wouldn't compete in 8 years (potentially the length of the next Kessel deal) then they're screwed anyway since guys like Rielly, JVR, Gardiner, Kadri, etc could all leave anyway and their window would be closed again.
- daeth

Assuming whatever prospect/high draft pick you would get in return will "bust" is whats asinine...

The Leafs are not going to get anyone as good as Kessel in return. Re-sign Kessel and call it a day.

If he doesn't sign by draft day it'd probably be unwise not to trade him but they'd only be cutting their losses at that point. It's not a good "Plan A" move.

I'd rather build around Kessel at age 26-27 than build around whatever 18 year old busts they'd get in return. You also don't just trade your best player when he's still young so you get a better draft pick either. That's asinine.

If you want to get a good pick trade Phaneuf, Kulemin, Lupul, or whoever once you have Kessel on a deal. Guarantee they'd be a bottom 5 team for years if they did that and they'd still have Kessel.

If you think the team wouldn't compete in 8 years (potentially the length of the next Kessel deal) then they're screwed anyway since guys like Rielly, JVR, Gardiner, Kadri, etc could all leave anyway and their window would be closed again.
- daeth

I get where you're coming from, but Kessel is not a player to build around. He is an excellent support player, and can be a huge help to any team, but he cannot carry a team on his back. He is a 1-way player and won't be the pillar of our franchise.

If CBJ offered us their 1st and a prspect for Kessel, I would take it right now.

I get where you're coming from, but Kessel is not a player to build around. He is an excellent support player, and can be a huge help to any team, but he cannot carry a team on his back. He is a 1-way player and won't be the pillar of our franchise.

If CBJ offered us their 1st and a prspect for Kessel, I would take it right now.
- mfreedman

You're going to get even less of a player in return. How does that help?

People rarely trade 26-27 year old players coming off four consecutive 30+ goal seasons. Firstly because there aren't a lot of players who've done that, secondly because unless you find a sucker to rip off you're never going to get fair value.

If the Leafs need to trade Kessel to rebuild why would it make sense for Columbus to trade assets to get him? They need to rebuild even more badly. A similar trade like that got Burke fired. I don't think lottery teams are lining up to make that deal.

Assuming whatever prospect/high draft pick you would get in return will "bust" is whats asinine...
- gretzky

Odds are they'd never amount to much. That's the nature of prospects. More often than not they end up being depth players or worse.

You're going to get even less of a player in return. How does that help?

People rarely trade 26-27 year old players coming off four consecutive 30+ goal seasons. Firstly because there aren't a lot of players who've done that, secondly because unless you find a sucker to rip off you're never going to get fair value.

If the Leafs need to trade Kessel to rebuild why would it make sense for Columbus to trade assets to get him? They need to rebuild even more badly. A similar trade like that got Burke fired. I don't think lottery teams are lining up to make that deal.


Odds are they'd never amount to much. That's the nature of prospects. More often than not they end up being depth players or worse.
- daeth

It really depends where Columbus ends up. Last year they finished in last place. They also lost Nash this year, so you wuld assume it would be even worse. Kessel would replace Nash, so I would see them still ending up in the bottom 3.

The Leafs after losing Kessel, would also most likely finish in a worse position than last year, so let's say bottom 5.

Trading Kessel to give us a really good shot at MacKinnon AND Drouin is worth it to me. Imagine those 2 as our 1-2 punch for the next 10 years. ... jsut my feeling

It really depends where Columbus ends up. Last year they finished in last place. They also lost Nash this year, so you wuld assume it would be even worse. Kessel would replace Nash, so I would see them still ending up in the bottom 3.

The Leafs after losing Kessel, would also most likely finish in a worse position than last year, so let's say bottom 5.

Trading Kessel to give us a really good shot at MacKinnon AND Drouin is worth it to me. Imagine those 2 as our 1-2 punch for the next 10 years. ... jsut my feeling
- mfreedman

But why would Columbus do that deal?

You're going to get even less of a player in return. How does that help?

People rarely trade 26-27 year old players coming off four consecutive 30+ goal seasons. Firstly because there aren't a lot of players who've done that, secondly because unless you find a sucker to rip off you're never going to get fair value.

If the Leafs need to trade Kessel to rebuild why would it make sense for Columbus to trade assets to get him? They need to rebuild even more badly. A similar trade like that got Burke fired. I don't think lottery teams are lining up to make that deal.


Odds are they'd never amount to much. That's the nature of prospects. More often than not they end up being depth players or worse.
- daeth

Not true when applied to top 10 picks or elite prospects..

Not true when applied to top 10 picks or elite prospects..
- gretzky

I'll use 2000-2005 as a reference because it's fairly recent while still giving most of the players time to reach their potential, making this mostly fair.

2005: Benoit Pouliot, Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon (5/10)

2004: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd, Al Montoya, Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik (7/10)

2003: Nikolai Zherdev, Andrei Kostitsyn (2/10)

2002: Scottie Upshall, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom (4/10)

2001: Alexandr Svitov, Stanislav Chistov, Pascal Leclaire, Tuomo Ruutu, Dan Blackburn, arguably Komisarek (5/10, maybe 6/10)

2000: Rostislav Klesla, Raffi Torres, Lars Jonsson, Nikita Alexeev, Brent Krahn, Mikhail Yakubov (6/10)

Total: 29/60, 30/60 if we conclude Komisarek is/was only a depth player.

--------------------

Then there are all the picks outside of the top 10, easily making what I said true. I don't see the Leafs getting a top pick in return for Kessel. I can't see anyone else making the same mistake Burke did. You'd get a Kovalchuk type package in return probably. Mid to late 1st + mid range prospect and scraps.

I'll use 2000-2005 as a reference because it's fairly recent while still giving most of the players time to reach their potential, making this mostly fair.

2005: Benoit Pouliot, Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon (5/10)

2004: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd, Al Montoya, Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik (7/10)

2003: Nikolai Zherdev, Andrei Kostitsyn (2/10)

2002: Scottie Upshall, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom (4/10)

2001: Alexandr Svitov, Stanislav Chistov, Pascal Leclaire, Tuomo Ruutu, Dan Blackburn, arguably Komisarek (5/10, maybe 6/10)

2000: Rostislav Klesla, Raffi Torres, Lars Jonsson, Nikita Alexeev, Brent Krahn, Mikhail Yakubov (6/10)

Total: 29/60, 30/60 if we conclude Komisarek is/was only a depth player.

--------------------

Then there are all the picks outside of the top 10, easily making what I said true. I don't see the Leafs getting a top pick in return for Kessel. I can't see anyone else making the same mistake Burke did. You'd get a Kovalchuk type package in return probably. Mid to late 1st + mid range prospect and scraps.
- daeth

Maybe this will help you understand why a lottery team should build around an 18-20 year old and not a 25 year old.



Link to the article it is from.
http://www.arcticicehocke...-points-per-game-peak-age

You also need to realize that there is a risk no matter what way you deal with Kessel. If you trade him for a young elite prospect or high pick yes it's true not *all* of them turn out but if you lose Kessel for nothing in 1.5 years as a UFA then are you any better?

Better off making a minor gamble on a player worth building around than saying "Kessel's as good as we will get probably, so he will have to do...."

Trading Kessel insures a high pick for you in a deep draft year too. You would basically be getting an elite prospect/high pick in return for Kessel and then another high pick from tanking.

I really don't see how long term you can think you are better off hoping a 26 year old one dimensional UFA re-signs with you over landing two stud prospects in a year that's been hailed as a very deep draft with a lot of high end talent.

How bad are your scouts anyway that they have you this nervous to grab a top prospect???

Also, if you don't think Kessel would land you a top prospect I would bet money Florida would send you Huberdeau or that NYI would send you Strome(+?) for Kessel. Both teams are desperate to make a bigger splash NOW and have enough pieces to "rebuild" with.

I'm not condoning either of those deals but saying you can't land a top prospect for Kessel is simply not true IMO. There would be a suitor I am sure.

Do you know how many 25 year old players [technically was 24 when he did it) have had four consecutive 30 goal seasons? He may even become a consistent point a game player, who knows. He hasn't been given a chance to prove if last year was a fluke or not. This has been a problem with this organization for a while. They always toss guys to the curb before they're given a proper chance to become the players they can become.

I love how Kessel is just some throw away player and taking a gamble with mid-late picks is somehow a better option. Unless Burke gets a job as GM somewhere else you're not going to get a huge package for him. Teams have not made trades like that at all in recent years. Probably the closest was Jordan Staal who's a better overall player and was guaranteed to sign long-term more or less with his brother on the team.

If you want the Leafs to suck bad enough to get a top pick this year simply trade away their depth players. It would be quite easy to get this team to tank without trading Kessel, and those players would be exponentially easier to replace in the future.

Do you know how many 25 year old players have had four consecutive 30 goal seasons? He may even become a consistent point a game player, who knows. He hasn't been given a chance to prove if last year was a fluke or not. This has been a problem with this organization for a while. They always toss guys to the curb before they're given a proper chance to become the players they can become.

I love how Kessel is just some throw away player and taking a gamble with mid-late picks is somehow a better option. He's being severely underrated right now.

If you want the Leafs to suck bad enough to get a top pick this year simply trade away their depth players. It would be quite easy to get this team to tank without trading Kessel, and those players would be exponentially easier to replace in the future.
- daeth

Who said Kessel is some throw away player? It just happens to be a good time to move him given his age and where you guys stand as a team. His value is also the highest it will ever be, IMO.

Burke actually left you guys in a great place *if* you take this opportunity to melt it down and start from scratch.

Rielly, Gardiner, Trade from Kessel and this years very high 1st rd. pick would give you 4 players with high potential to build around and they would be very young giving you nearly a decade to find players to compliment them before they will naturally regress. I am not even counting Lupul, Kulemin, Kadri, etc. that could be packaged together to bring another top prospect back.

Short term it will suck, but long term it would be so worth it.

My .02 anyway. Obviously we won't see eye to eye on this one. Be interesting to see how Leaf management deals with it.

I just don't see the Leafs ever getting value in return, mostly because I can't really recall a time where a top end offensive player in his prime has been traded for fair value when picks and prospects were involved.

Kessel will probably be good for another 8 years. He seems like the kind of player who just wants money so I don't think re-signing him would be a problem. That's a lot of time rebuild with him as part of the core. If it takes longer than that I think we would've been doomed anyway lol.

Short term it will suck, but long term it would be so worth it.
- gretzky

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=649655

"We need to continue building the team," he said. "It's not starting from scratch. … To gut it now will set the franchise back a long way and something we're not interested in doing."

Doesn't seem like an option anyway.

But why would Columbus do that deal?
- daeth

Cause Howson's an idiot

Cause Howson's an idiot
- mfreedman

By all means if we can get the 1st overall pick for him do it

I'll use 2000-2005 as a reference because it's fairly recent while still giving most of the players time to reach their potential, making this mostly fair.

2005: Benoit Pouliot, Gilbert Brule, Jack Skille, Brian Lee, Luc Bourdon (5/10)

2004: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd, Al Montoya, Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik (7/10)

2003: Nikolai Zherdev, Andrei Kostitsyn (2/10)

2002: Scottie Upshall, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Petr Taticek, Eric Nystrom (4/10)

2001: Alexandr Svitov, Stanislav Chistov, Pascal Leclaire, Tuomo Ruutu, Dan Blackburn, arguably Komisarek (5/10, maybe 6/10)

2000: Rostislav Klesla, Raffi Torres, Lars Jonsson, Nikita Alexeev, Brent Krahn, Mikhail Yakubov (6/10)

Total: 29/60, 30/60 if we conclude Komisarek is/was only a depth player.

--------------------

Then there are all the picks outside of the top 10, easily making what I said true. I don't see the Leafs getting a top pick in return for Kessel. I can't see anyone else making the same mistake Burke did. You'd get a Kovalchuk type package in return probably. Mid to late 1st + mid range prospect and scraps.
- daeth

I'd take Bourdon out of there, guy died, no clue what he could have done. And Ladd's been close to 30 goals the last two years, while playing on one of the pooptiest teams in the league.

I'd take Bourdon out of there, guy died, no clue what he could have done. And Ladd's been close to 30 goals the last two years, while playing on one of the pooptiest teams in the league.
- Feeling Glucky?

Only two guys on my list were bad, I'll take it.

Only two guys on my list were bad, I'll take it.
- daeth

Oilers fans would probably argue Smid, too. But yea, your point stands.

Oilers fans would probably argue Smid, too. But yea, your point stands.
- Feeling Glucky?

I was going to mention Smid, but it's beside the point. There's a huge list of star talent that emerged from the top 10 as well.

No brainer to draft high this year with as many picks as possible. I'm not so convinced Kessel will even stay as a UFA either..

I was going to mention Smid, but it's beside the point. There's a huge list of star talent that emerged from the top 10 as well.

No brainer to draft high this year with as many picks as possible. I'm not so convinced Kessel will even stay as a UFA either..
- gretzky

I tend to think that as of now he's a depth player, but dmen develop late a lot of the time so that can change for sure.

I was going to mention Smid, but it's beside the point. There's a huge list of star talent that emerged from the top 10 as well.

No brainer to draft high this year with as many picks as possible. I'm not so convinced Kessel will even stay as a UFA either..
- gretzky

Well, that's the thing. If you know he's gonna leave, obviously you trade him.
If you have anything less than an understanding of a deal at the deadline, you trade him.

If you know he's gonna stay, you keep him.

I tend to think that as of now he's a depth player, but dmen develop late a lot of the time so that can change for sure.
- daeth

I'll give Smid the benefit of the doubt. I don't watch the Oilers as much as I'd like to(a few crazy fans aside, they're one of my favourite teams) and you really gotta watch defensive d-men to figure out how good they are.

Smid is very good and very underrated. You won't find a single Oiler fan that says otherwise. Plays with his heart on his sleeve every game. You sure won't notice him if you just watch the highlight reels though.

He is very similar to Josh Gorges. Lots of hits, blocked shots, and rock solid in the D zone but he will never be a point producer. Offense is the only thing holding both back from being #1 D men.

Even as a one dimensional #2 or #3 D man I am comfortable with saying he lived up to his draft spot. #2/#3 gritty defensive D men are a rare breed in the NHL. I would take one at 9th overall all day long.

Either way, saying most top 10 guys bust and grouping Smid in with them is quite ironic. He is the Oilers best D man.

Smid is very good and very underrated. You won't find a single Oiler fan that says otherwise. Plays with his heart on his sleeve every game. You sure won't notice him if you just watch the highlight reels though.

He is very similar to Josh Gorges. Lots of hits, blocked shots, and rock solid in the D zone but he will never be a point producer. Offense is the only thing holding both back from being #1 D men.

Even as a one dimensional #2 or #3 D man I am comfortable with saying he lived up to his draft spot. #2/#3 gritty defensive D men are a rare breed in the NHL. I would take one at 9th overall all day long.

Either way, saying most top 10 guys bust and grouping Smid in with them is quite ironic. He is the Oilers best D man.
- gretzky

His numbers show that most aren't complete busts, however, top-10 isn't the guarantee people make it out to be.

I didn't even say most top 10 picks are busts anyway. I said most prospects amount to nothing more than depth players or worse. He brought up the top 10 thing, and it just so happens that even a large number of those picks don't amount to much.