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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: "Gratton Trade" for Weber Makes Financial & Hockey Sense
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Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hart-Land, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jul 23 @ 8:38 AM ET
As Poile, I am disappointed. I advise Weber that I tried to get a deal but could not get it done, will advise league office of my decision to match.
- spatso


You know, it still blows my mind that they played hardball with Weber last year. If he's your captain and face of the franchise and you REALLY have all the money in the world and are ready to pay it, then why approach negotiations in this manner ..especially when you knew Suter could walk?

If the Flyers did this with Roo, I'd be furious.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hart-Land, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jul 23 @ 8:38 AM ET
I need my dosage of Tomahawk!
- LordStanley88


I hate the Braves.
Flyers_01
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.03.2006

Jul 23 @ 8:39 AM ET
he sits out he doesnt get paid. also weber knew this could happen. he has no more right to be po'd than the preds do over an offer sheet. its business. besides, while i know it would be expensive, imo we match and if things arent rosey then we trade him next year. he would be worth a fortune on the open market to 29 potential buyers. hes signed long term which is a plus. sure his contract would run off a few suiters (or is that suters lol) but the big boys would be lining up. imo, thats waaaaay better for the franchise than taking 4 likely low end 1st rounders or a terribly one sided deal from philly now.
- predswilrule


Actually, I think he would still get paid even if he sits out. Only 1 mill of the $27 mill he'll get over the next 11 months is salary, the rest is signing bonus. Someone can correct me if i'm wrong but the only amount at risk if he decides to sit out part of the season is the $1 million in salary.

Also, in your scenerio you say 29 other teams would be interested. That is possible but i'd bet fewer than 8 have the financial means to pay him the 10+ mill/yr in the short term that he'd making yearly.

Anyway, it's all speculation at this point. I don't think the Preds match but I do think there's a trade not including the Schenns or Couterier. The Pred's future is brighter without Weber than with him unless the owners are committed to losing bucketfulls of money a year. Look at the Coyotes to see what happens when owners lose many millions of dollars.
Pyzik
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Flemington, NJ
Joined: 01.18.2008

Jul 23 @ 8:41 AM ET
Actually, I think he would still get paid even if he sits out. Only 1 mill of the $27 mill he'll get over the next 11 months is salary, the rest is signing bonus. Someone can correct me if i'm wrong but the only amount at risk if he decides to sit out part of the season is the $1 million in salary.

Also, in your scenerio you say 29 other teams would be interested. That is possible but i'd bet fewer than 8 have the financial means to pay him the 10+ mill/yr in the short term that he'd making yearly.

Anyway, it's all speculation at this point. I don't think the Preds match but I do think there's a trade not including the Schenns or Couterier. The Pred's future is brighter without Weber than with him unless the owners are committed to losing bucketfulls of money a year. Look at the Coyotes to see what happens when owners lose many millions of dollars.

- Flyers_01


in the sitting out scenario, teams can and have filed suit to get most if not all of a signing bonus back in cases where a player sits out. I don't recall a case in the NHL but the NFL has had it happen.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jul 23 @ 8:46 AM ET
First off, how about Bill posting this at 2:50 am?

Secondly, one minute I'm convinced Nashville won't match the offer sheet and the next I think there's no way they don't. The thing that stands out to me most is what Weber's agent said about him wanting to play in Philly and not Nashville. Hopefully this is true because you don't want a guy who doesn't want to be there if you're Nashville. It'll put more pressure on them not to match.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jul 23 @ 8:51 AM ET
You know, it still blows my mind that they played hardball with Weber last year. If he's your captain and face of the franchise and you REALLY have all the money in the world and are ready to pay it, then why approach negotiations in this manner ..especially when you knew Suter could walk?

If the Flyers did this with Roo, I'd be furious.

- Hextall271


I think that was a lie on the ownership's part.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 23 @ 8:52 AM ET
First off, how about Bill posting this at 2:50 am?

Secondly, one minute I'm convinced Nashville won't match the offer sheet and the next I think there's no way they don't. The thing that stands out to me most is what Weber's agent said about him wanting to play in Philly and not Nashville. Hopefully this is true because you don't want a guy who doesn't want to be there if you're Nashville. It'll put more pressure on them not to match.

- NickTheKid87


If your Nashville and you have the funds to match why would you trade with the Flyers unless you can get back what you want? I'm just confused and the theory. They have money to match the offer sheet but want to trade him to ice a better competitive team. I wouldnt deal Weber if I'm Nashville until the Flyers meet my demands. However I think they have to match even though I believe they will be destroyed taking on that contract. Will wait and see...
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 23 @ 8:53 AM ET
You know, it still blows my mind that they played hardball with Weber last year. If he's your captain and face of the franchise and you REALLY have all the money in the world and are ready to pay it, then why approach negotiations in this manner ..especially when you knew Suter could walk?

If the Flyers did this with Roo, I'd be furious.

- Hextall271



They have the money to pay salaries. In which the monthy payments are due on the 15th and 30th of each month, during the Season. Look at Rinne's deal. There is no signing bonus money. It is the upfront money that causes an issue with Nashville.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 8:53 AM ET
You know, it still blows my mind that they played hardball with Weber last year. If he's your captain and face of the franchise and you REALLY have all the money in the world and are ready to pay it, then why approach negotiations in this manner ..especially when you knew Suter could walk?

If the Flyers did this with Roo, I'd be furious.

- Hextall271


I think Nashville ownership knows they put impossible constraints on Poile. So, last year they changed their capital structure, they have expanded Wilson's holdings, they told their fans they would be a cap team and compete for a Cup.

That is what the green light is all about. They must match or everything falls apart. Corporate sponsors will be the first to go, followed by box owners and season ticket renewal cancellations. The green light will come with no strings attached.

Poile matches unless Holmgren gives him something that he can sell his own players and fans. Every argument about the financial stress of the Preds is an argument supporting a green light strategy.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 23 @ 8:56 AM ET
First off, how about Bill posting this at 2:50 am?

Secondly, one minute I'm convinced Nashville won't match the offer sheet and the next I think there's no way they don't. The thing that stands out to me most is what Weber's agent said about him wanting to play in Philly and not Nashville. Hopefully this is true because you don't want a guy who doesn't want to be there if you're Nashville. It'll put more pressure on them not to match.

- NickTheKid87



One of Weber's Agents also said this.

http://www.philly.com/phi...fer_sheet.html?page=2&c=y

Epp, the agent, acknowledged that Weber would enjoy becoming a Flyer, but that he would still feel comfortable if he returned to Nashville.

"He's had a successful career in Nashville and it's home, so it's not a place where he doesn't think he can't finish his career," Epp said.

jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 23 @ 8:59 AM ET
I think Nashville is strongly considering matching the offer which would lead me to think sending them Voracek and Bourdon (2 RFAs) and Meszaros who is coming off back surgery isn't going to be enough with 3 first round picks. I think if its 2 1sts and the Schenn Brothers, it's a different story.
- sulshawn

Preds would do the deal in a second for Voracek, MAB, Meszaros a 3 #1s. Flyers would be stupid to make that trade.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 23 @ 9:00 AM ET
One of Weber's Agents also said this.

http://www.philly.com/phi...fer_sheet.html?page=2&c=y

Epp, the agent, acknowledged that Weber would enjoy becoming a Flyer, but that he would still feel comfortable if he returned to Nashville.

"He's had a successful career in Nashville and it's home, so it's not a place where he doesn't think he can't finish his career," Epp said.

- MJL


Weber is in a win win situation. He's getting big money upfront from either team. Also others have said match and trade Weber after the year is out, I guess people think Weber won't have a NTC/NMC. He could turn into another Nash suggesting where to go and Nashville still might not get fair value. So much going on, good stuff.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jul 23 @ 9:01 AM ET
If your Nashville and you have the funds to match why would you trade with the Flyers unless you can get back what you want? I'm just confused and the theory. They have money to match the offer sheet but want to trade him to ice a better competitive team. I wouldnt deal Weber if I'm Nashville until the Flyers meet my demands. However I think they have to match even though I believe they will be destroyed taking on that contract. Will wait and see...
- stveshdy


From a PR standpoint Nashville almost has to match because they already lost Suter. I'd be a tough pill to swallow for the fan base to see their top 2 players (and captain) leave. But with how things have gone for Nashville, I wouldn't be surprised if a de facto trade is agreed upon. That might help mend Homer and Poile's relationship a bit.
NickTheKid87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 11.19.2010

Jul 23 @ 9:02 AM ET
Preds would do the deal in a second for Voracek, MAB, Meszaros a 3 #1s. Flyers would be stupid to make that trade.
- jstross


But we'd get Weber.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 23 @ 9:03 AM ET
I think Nashville ownership knows they put impossible constraints on Poile. So, last year they changed their capital structure, they have expanded Wilson's holdings, they told their fans they would be a cap team and compete for a Cup.

That is what the green light is all about. They must match or everything falls apart. Corporate sponsors will be the first to go, followed by box owners and season ticket renewal cancellations. The green light will come with no strings attached.

Poile matches unless Holmgren gives him something that he can sell his own players and fans. Every argument about the financial stress of the Preds is an argument supporting a green light strategy.

- spatso



I agree with a lot of your points, especially something to sell the fans on. I am just speculating but I really think if the Flyers want Weber and Nashville to decline matching, it will be both Schenns and 2 firsts. It is a steep price but it means parting with 1 of Brayden and Couturier, not the 2 that Nashville demanded earlier:

My point is that it gives Predators something to show fans that they made a good financial and hockey trade that was the best they were going to get for someone who showed they really wanted to be elsewhere. In fact, it would not shock me to see Nashville use the Flyers draft picks to acquire a Bouwmeester from Calgary.

Since June 24, I had been waiting for a press conference introducing Luke Schenn. With the story about the brothers uniting to play for a team, I thought this should have happened weeks ago. Last year, it took a little over a week to 2 to bring in Simmonds and Vorcaek and Schenn when they were acquired in a trade, we are going on almost 4 with Luke.

So maybe when Homer acquired Luke, it was to be used in a deal for Weber. When NNashville asked for both Couturier and Brayden (per Dreger) and maybe Luke, Homer said no way and submitted the offer sheet.

I also don't see how Nashville would accept Voracek MAB and Meszaros and 3 firsts. I like those players and have no problem as a Flyesr fan if they are on the team next year, but I think Poile and Nashville ownership would want some players who are not RFAs
right-winger
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 07.21.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:09 AM ET
Maybe from the outside I don't understand, but I think too much is being made of the fanbase/revenue loss if Weber isn't matched. The media gets carried away IMO of these doom and gloom scenarios for the franchise without Weber. If ownership really thought one guy was that important, they'd have already offered a deal he'd have taken if he really is ok staying there. And him signing the offer sheet tells me he's ok staying there. And make no mistake, Weber is not a marketing option like Crosby or Ovechkin. We all know he's a great player, but he obviously isn't going to turn around a franchise single handedly. It would have already happened, or would be much further along than it is. And Nashville still has some good young d-men in their system. If they get players, they can still be a playoff team IMO due to how Trotz seems to get more than the sum of their parts out of his players. The picks received allow things like bringing in more bodies via trade, or moving up in a supposed deep draft, or just using them to deepen the prospect pool.
- eayost


I agree with this. Teams lose star players all the time (it's even worse in MLB) and manage to survive. Nashville themselves lost Kimo and Hartnell the same off-season. What did they do? They had other guys step up and Weber and Suter blossomed into stars. Fwiw, I'm not trying to compare Kimo and Hartnell to Weber and Suter, just saying there is precedent for the team losing quality players and still icing a competitive team.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:10 AM ET
I agree with a lot of your points, especially something to sell the fans on. I am just speculating but I really think if the Flyers want Weber and Nashville to decline matching, it will be both Schenns and 2 firsts. It is a steep price but it means parting with 1 of Brayden and Couturier, not the 2 that Nashville demanded earlier:

My point is that it gives Predators something to show fans that they made a good financial and hockey trade that was the best they were going to get for someone who showed they really wanted to be elsewhere. In fact, it would not shock me to see Nashville use the Flyers draft picks to acquire a Bouwmeester from Calgary.

Since June 24, I had been waiting for a press conference introducing Luke Schenn. With the story about the brothers uniting to play for a team, I thought this should have happened weeks ago. Last year, it took a little over a week to 2 to bring in Simmonds and Vorcaek and Schenn when they were acquired in a trade, we are going on almost 4 with Luke.

So maybe when Homer acquired Luke, it was to be used in a deal for Weber. When NNashville asked for both Couturier and Brayden (per Dreger) and maybe Luke, Homer said no way and submitted the offer sheet.

I also don't see how Nashville would accept Voracek MAB and Meszaros and 3 firsts. I like those players and have no problem as a Flyesr fan if they are on the team next year, but I think Poile and Nashville ownership would want some players who are not RFAs

- sulshawn


You do realize that the Flyers rarely have off-season acquisition press conferences immediately after adding players? They signed Bryzgalov last summer on June 23rd, and had his introductory PC 2 months later.

The delay in the Schenn introduction has more to do with the Flyers standard practice of waiting for guys to finish their summer and come to Philly than a looming trade.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 23 @ 9:11 AM ET
he sits out he doesnt get paid. also weber knew this could happen. he has no more right to be po'd than the preds do over an offer sheet. its business. besides, while i know it would be expensive, imo we match and if things arent rosey then we trade him next year. he would be worth a fortune on the open market to 29 potential buyers. hes signed long term which is a plus. sure his contract would run off a few suiters (or is that suters lol) but the big boys would be lining up. imo, thats waaaaay better for the franchise than taking 4 likely low end 1st rounders or a terribly one sided deal from philly now.
- predswilrule


Yeah but how much are other willing to gut their cores? personally i think Voracek, Mezzaros, Gustaffson + 2 first is way overpayment. Do you think other teams are willing to trade more that that? Sure their might be someone crazy but essentially the price will be lowered when teams will have to gut themselves just to get him. A top 6 winger + a top four defenseman + prospect + 2 first is more than enough at this point.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 23 @ 9:11 AM ET
All the guys on here that hated the Richards and Carter deals when they were announced last year are going to hate what Holmgren gives up to finally get Weber. But, like last year, you will come around to understand that a bold move like this requires an enormously courageous finish.

The green light strategy has taken the money part of the deal off the table. Nashville owns his rights for 14 years based on the terms negotiated by the Flyers. Ownership has decided they will pay. The only thing that matters is what would you be prepared to give to get Weber?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 23 @ 9:12 AM ET
Preds would do the deal in a second for Voracek, MAB, Meszaros a 3 #1s. Flyers would be stupid to make that trade.
- jstross


Why is that? They'd be getting a Norris caliber defenseman.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 23 @ 9:12 AM ET
I agree with this. Teams lose star players all the time (it's even worse in MLB) and manage to survive. Nashville themselves lost Kimo and Hartnell the same off-season. What did they do? They had other guys step up and Weber and Suter blossomed into stars. Fwiw, I'm not trying to compare Kimo and Hartnell to Weber and Suter, just saying there is precedent for the team losing quality players and still icing a competitive team.
- right-winger


I really hope my speculation is wrong with a trade involving Schenns to Nashville but if Nashville declines to offer and gets player compensation with draft picks, I can see Nashville putting together a trade for like a J-Bo or something.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:13 AM ET
Instead of the Schenn's, spatso, would Jake andd Coburn, plus picks, be sufficient in your eyes?

Just curious.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:14 AM ET
Why is that? They'd be getting a Norris caliber defenseman.
- Jsaquella


Yea I think you'd be deranged to reject that deal even under the circumstances.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 23 @ 9:14 AM ET
All the guys on here that hated the Richards and Carter deals when they were announced last year are going to hate what Holmgren gives up to finally get Weber. But, like last year, you will come around to understand that a bold move like this requires an enormously courageous finish.

The green light strategy has taken the money part of the deal off the table. Nashville owns his rights for 14 years based on the terms negotiated by the Flyers. Ownership has decided they will pay. The only thing that matters is what would you be prepared to give to get Weber?

- spatso


I agree. I also look at what the Flyers gave up to get a 34 year Pronger who was 1 year away from UFA, (2 1st, 1 3rd, Lupul and Sbisa). I think the Flyers really want Weber, and will need to compensate with a heavy combo of players and draft picks for Preds not to match to get a 26 year old Norris Trophy candidate who is compared a lot to Pronger.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 23 @ 9:14 AM ET
All the guys on here that hated the Richards and Carter deals when they were announced last year are going to hate what Holmgren gives up to finally get Weber. But, like last year, you will come around to understand that a bold move like this requires an enormously courageous finish.

The green light strategy has taken the money part of the deal off the table. Nashville owns his rights for 14 years based on the terms negotiated by the Flyers. Ownership has decided they will pay. The only thing that matters is what would you be prepared to give to get Weber?

- spatso


Although I expect a green light strategy to be announced, the fact remains that thus far it hasn't been.
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