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Nothing is happening in the hockey world right now and we have no idea how long that will remain the case.
I understand the regular season hasn’t been fully completed, however, there is no guarantee it will be. Maybe they’ll play a couple more games. Maybe they’ll simply jump to the playoffs as soon as it’s safe to do so.
I don’t know.
What I do know is that 69 games is enough time to judge what kind of season a player had, and if they failed or succeeded in living up to expectations.
With that in mind, I’ll be commenting on the season each member of the Devils had as well as their likely role and expectations moving forward.
Let’s start with Will Butcher.
Counting stats: 56 games played, 21 points (four goals, 17 assists), 17:55 average time on ice
5v5 underlyings: 1.18 points/60, +.51 CF% Rel, +3.87 GF% Rel, +2.06 xGF% Rel, 99.3 PDO
2019-20 review: Many people were disappointed by Will Butcher’s performance during the 2018-19 campaign. I wasn’t necessarily one of them. While his overall production dipped, it was still solid and the Devils controlled a much larger share of the shots, goals, and expected goals with him on the ice.
If the top power play hadn’t struggled, and/or Taylor Hall didn’t miss the whole 2019 portion of the season, his outputs would’ve been a little higher and the same can probably be said about the perception of his play.
I thought some were unfairly harsh on Butcher last season. I’m certainly not of that stance this year.
Butcher’s rate production at 5v5 is solid. Again, his relative numbers were positive across the board (but less so). That’s more to do with cushy usage and offensive impact than defensive competence, which was completely non-existent.
The Devils conceded 3.26 goals per 60 minutes with Butcher on the ice at 5v5. That’s a horrendous number that bested only Matt Tennsyon among Devils blueliners with 20+ games played.
It was no fluke either. The Devils gave up more chances per 60 minutes with Butcher than any other defender on the roster. Yes, even Tennyson.
Put simply, his defensive numbers were horrific despite getting sheltered more than most (all?) other New Jersey blueliners.
He also averaged fewer than 18 minutes per game, a far cry from the 19:16 he played on a nightly basis a year ago. That says a lot, especially given the state of New Jersey’s defense this season.
There are a lot of replacement level players, and guys having horrible years, and yet Butcher’s role only shrank. It’s not hard to understand why.
Fun fact(s): Butcher recorded more 5v5 points than Drew Doughty, Jacob Trouba, Oscar Klefbom, Mark Giordano, Seth Jones and John Klingberg while appearing in fewer games.
2020-21 outlook: I think Butcher is a guy the Devils might be willing to listen on this summer. Whether anything actually comes of it is a different story – the Devils need defenders, so if a prime offer (relatively speaking) isn’t tabled they’ll probably just hold onto Butcher. That’s fine.
It is clear he can not handle difficult defensive minutes, though. As it stands he is probably the best – the most talented, anyway – left-handed defender on the roster. That can’t and won’t fly.
I think the Devils are going to hunt for a defender or two this summer. They certainly have the assets to pull something off. And I expect they will.
If Butcher is back, which I’d say is more likely than not, I anticipate he’ll play somewhat sheltered 5v5 minutes on either the 2nd or 3rd pairing (2nd is doable if there’s somebody steady with him) and see some power play usage.
If all goes well, I think the 2018-19 campaign is a reasonable expectation for him; 30-35 points and solid relative impacts at 5v5. That won’t wow anybody, but at this point the Devils will sign up for competence from any defenseman who can provide it.
numbers via naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com
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