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Five takeaways from Game 6 of Calgary vs Dallas:
1. Riding the spark. Geoff Ward finally shook up the lines down the stretch of G5 and it worked. Although the Flames didn’t come back and win, the top-6 was much better after the switch. Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Elias Lindholm out-attempted Dallas 9-3 and created five chances at 5v5. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Tobias Rieder helped the Flames out-attempt the Stars 12-6. Score effects likely played a part as well – the Stars were more worried about defense than offense – but, for the first time in a while, each of the top two lines actually looked good and were clicking at the same time. I would imagine they'll roll the same units if Matthew Tkachuk remains out. The question is whether they'll get the same results.
2. Taking advantage of P3. Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg are playing lights out on the top two pairings. Dallas has out-scored Calgary 4-1, and controlled 55% of the attempts, with Heiskanen on the ice at 5v5. They’ve been even more dominant with Klingberg out there, out-scoring Calgary 6-2 and controlling nearly 65% of the attempts. They’re on top of their games and are playing a *ton* of minutes. Making matters worse: one of them is on the ice at almost all times. When they’re not, though, Calgary has made serious headway. Andrej Sekera has been the constant on P3. In just ~50 minutes of ice, the Stars have been out-scored 5-1. The Flames have made the most of their time away from Heiskanen and/or Klingberg and that has allowed them to keep this a series. If they’re going to take this thing to seven games, they probably need to muster up another goal or two against Sekera’s unit tonight. They have last change, too, so they can get the matchups they want against him. They have to capitalize.
3. Even more from 93. He has a reputation as a playoff player. Even so, the level of play we have seen from him is almost shockingly good. He leads all Flames in goals, points, shots on goal, scoring chances, high-danger chances, and expected goals. This while hitting everything that moves and causing all kinds of problems on the forecheck. As I’ve discussed a million times, Calgary’s top unit isn’t producing at 5v5 so they need guys like Bennett to continue to punch above their weight class.
4. Mistake-free goaltending. Cam Talbot has been rock solid almost every game these playoffs. Of nine goaltenders with 400+ minutes to their name, only Carey Price and Joonas Korpisalo have posted higher save percentages. Even so, the Flames are on the ropes because they just aren’t clicking enough offensively and, honestly, It’s tough to see that changing against such a stout defensive team. Talbot has to slam the door shut for the Flames to win tonight. If he allows a weak one, it’ll be very difficult to get it back.
5. Wonky usage. This is a do or die game, which means we could see some crazy ice time numbers. Maybe it is Mark Giordano playing 29 minutes in regulation. Maybe it is the 4th line seeing four minutes of ice. Maybe it is Sam Bennett leading all forwards in ice time. Geoff Ward is going to play the guys that are giving him something and bench the ones that aren't. The Flames are out of wiggle room. They can't wait around for Sean Monahan or Johnny Gaudreau to find their games. If they aren't performing, the ice will reflect that.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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