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G31 Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs: Looking for a bounce back |
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Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Five things to watch when Calgary takes on Toronto:
1. Tightening up. I thought the Flames did a fairly good job of limiting the danger against Edmonton in G1 of their series. They were really picked apart in G2, though. Toronto is another team with lethal starpower up front and they’re extremely dangerous off the rush. They can cause a lot of the same problems as Edmonton; but to an even more extreme level. Calgary’s forwards are really going to need to provide consistent back pressure in this one. I’m not talking about just trailing the defenders to try and take away the extra layer. They need to have a forward – perhaps the center – back at the same level as the blueliners, which would allow two Flames players to attack the Toronto puck carrier at the line and force a dump-in or a change in possession. The commitment really needs to be there for the Flames to keep Toronto to three or less.
2. Adjustments are needed. The Flames play a connected game under Darryl Sutter with a lot of dump-and-chase. There isn’t anything wrong with that when it’s done right, obviously, but that just doesn’t mesh with Johnny Gaudreau. That’s not a knock on him or me trying to create a narrative about the ‘soft skill guy’ not fitting in this system. It’s just the truth. Gaudreau is at his best off the rush, and a dump-and-chase mentality takes away from that. There is a reason Gaudreau has generated *checks notes* only three 5v5 scoring chances in four games under Sutter. It may not sound too bad but, well, it is. Gaudreau is tied with Juuso Valimaki and Oliver Kylington for 14th on the team in that span. The Flames need to get him going, and making him chase pucks and win battles in the corner isn’t the way to do it. I understand Sutter wants all players to buy in but there has to be some sort of tweak or exception made for Gaudreau. It’s not about special treatment; it’s about maximizing your players; especially the high-end ones.
3. Stay out of the box. If the Flames want to have a real chance of winning this game, they need to stay disciplined. I’m talking three penalties or fewer. Toronto is next-level good on the man advantage. They’re at or near the top of the league in shot and goal generation, and no team averages more expected goals per minute. They’re getting Wayne Simmonds, a strong net-front player, back tonight as well so their PP is getting another boost; not that they needed one. The best way to slow their PP down is to avoid it altogether.
4. Lights out. That’s the best way to describe the play of the Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Dillon Dube line under Sutter. Four games is four games but they’ve been flat-out dominant at 5v5. Their share of the Expected Goals is more than 73%(!) and they’ve yet to be scored against. Obviously those kinds of numbers aren’t sustainable but they sure look the part of a true top line. They’re going to see a lot of Toronto’s top-6 in this one, which is as potent as anybody’s in the NHL. This is going to be a very good test for them.
5. In need of a bounce-back. Jacob Markstrom was lit up like a Christmas tree last time out. He conceded seven times and they weren’t exactly all high-danger opportunities. He has played very well in stretches but his year as a whole is nothing to write home about. Markstrom owns a pedestrian .903 save percentage and has conceded 6.9 goals above expectation. *That* is not what the Flames are paying him for. They need him to be much better moving forward, and a quality showing against the Maple Leafs would be a good place to start.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and MoneyPuck.com
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