Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Edmonton Oilers:
1. Goaltending
On paper, David Rittich vs Mikko Koskinen is hardly a marquee matchup. The numbers tell a different story – at least so far.
Among 50 eligible goaltenders (300+ minutes), Rittich ranks 3rd with a .935 save percentage. Koskinen sits 19th with a very respectable .918SV%.
Both have drastically out-performed the 'starters' – Smith owns a .876SV% while Talbot owns a .895SV% – and another strong showing tonight could help solidify a larger role moving forward. Each team has playoff aspirations so, sooner or later, the coaches will have to consistently play the guy providing the best chance to win.
2. Doing damage at 5v5
While the Oilers haven't been great at keeping the puck out on the PK, it's not due to poor performance. They rank top-10 in Corsi Against/60 and top-5 in Expected Goals Against/60 in that game state. They don't give up much in terms of shot volume or chances. They're also a disciplined team. In other words, this is probably not a blowup spot for the Flames' power play. They'll have to take care of business at 5v5 if they want to come out on top.
3. A dynamic duo
Leon Drasiaitl and Connor McDavid are as good of a duo as you'll find. They've played ~560 minutes together at 5v5 since the beginning of 2017-18. In that time, the Oilers have generated 68.65 shot attempts, 36.31 scoring chances, and 4.08 goals per 60 minutes.
For perspective of how insane that is, the league-leading Toronto Maple Leafs average 60.44 attempts, 30.22 chances, and 2.84 goals per 60. Those numbers don't hold a candle.
Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk are still posting excellent 5v5 numbers, however, they're giving up scoring opportunities at a higher clip than in years past. They'll pay if they don't clean up their act vs Draisaitl and McDavid.
4. Needed reinforcements
The Flames have drawn three penalties over the last three games. No, not three per game. Three total. For whatever reason, they're struggling to generate chances for their power play to go to work. Getting Dillon Dube should help in that regard as he has a +5 penalty differential through 14 games and leads the team drawing 2.08 minors per 60 minutes played.
5. Young Sam Bennett™
Bennett has recorded 27 scoring chances (3rd) and 17 high-danger chances (2nd) over the last 10 games. Despite consistently generating quality looks, especially around the net, he hasn't potted a goal during that stretch.
Though he'll likely never be an above average finisher, it feels like he's going to break through sooner than later. It's simply not possible to come up empty-handed while creating numerous chances per game over a lengthy period of time.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Sam Bennett
Dillon Dube - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Garnet Hathaway - Derek Ryan - Michael Frolik
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Juuso Valimaki - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Edmonton (via dailyfaceoff.com)
Drake Caggiula - Connor McDavid - Leon Draisaitl
Ryan Spooner - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Ty Rattie
Milan Lucic - Cooper Marody - Alex Chiasson
Jujhar Khaira - Kyle Brodziak - Zack Kassian
Oscar Klefbom - Adam Larsson
Darnell Nurse - Matthew Benning
Jason Garrison - Kris Russell
Mikko Koiskinen
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on SN, SN1, and CBC.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
On strong 5v5 numbers, Czarnik's role, and Hanifin's penalty killing
On penalty killing prowess, Lindholm’s scoring, and goaltending
Predicting the Pacific Division standings
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»