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The other day I came across an interesting article on All About The Jersey, a New Jersey Devils-centric blog I'm sure many of you are familiar with, relating to Cory Schneider.
I'd recommend reading the piece (I linked to it in the intro) but, in short, it was argued Schneider could be a liability for the Devils in the near future as a) he is coming off a bad season; b) he's at the age where many goaltenders begin their steady decline and; c) he's signed long-term for a good chunk of money.
I'm not here to dump on the piece by any means -- it was well thought out and I have a lot of time and respect for anyone who actually puts in some work to back up their opinions -- but, with not much else going on right now, I figured I'd share some thoughts and defend Schneider a little bit:
1) Schneider did not have a good season, especially by his standards. There's no hiding from that and I'm not here to argue otherwise.
In saying that, I think there's reason to believe Schneider will bounce back and provide the Devils with quality goaltending going forward.
Prior to last year, Schneider posted *at least* a .921 save percentage in each of his six seasons as a regular NHLer. He was consistently among the best and I think it's reasonable to say he's a lot closer to the guy we saw for six years than the one we saw last season.
2) Yes, Schneider is at the age where you start to worry about a decline in production. I'm less concerned with his age than I would be for a lot of others, though.
Generally, high-end goaltenders decline slowly and still remain efficient well past their prime (see Henrik Lundqvist, Roberto Luongo, etc). They don't just fall off a cliff over the course of one year.
3) Schneider has started 40+ games just four times in his career, 50+ games three times, and 60+ games just once. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on him, which I think will help him age more gracefully than others.
4) Though Schneider's overall numbers took a dent -- bad defense and a worse penalty kill surely played a part -- he actually posted the best high-danger save percentage of his Devils career last season.
The sample size for high-danger shots isn't as big as lesser danger looks -- teams allow more shots from the blue line than the slot, for example -- but some believe high-danger save percentage is the best indicator of true goalie talent.
The logic behind it, of course, is that it's harder to stop Sidney Crosby from the slot than from just inside the blue line, so you can't really get lucky and inflate your numbers. If you stop high-end shots at a good rate, which is difficult to do, it's probably because you're good.
Schneider, as you saw above, was the 3rd best goaltender in the NHL last season when it came to stopping high-danger looks.
He is still very effective when it comes to stopping difficult shots, so I'm willing to believe he has the talent to get back on track with stopping shots from a distance.
5) Seven goaltenders make as much or more than Schneider and four others have a cap hit within $250,000 of what Schneider makes. Essentially, he's paid like the 8th best and is making just a hair more than the 12th best.
Even if Schneider doesn't get back to the .924+ save percentage he posted in 2014-15 and 2015-16 -- his only two years as an undisputed starter in the NHL -- he'll be playing up to his contract if he can provide above average goaltending and come anywhere close. And I think he can do that for at least a few more years.
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