Yesterday was an eventful day with a blockbuster trade to bring aboard defenseman Seth Jones reshuffling the deck in many ways for the Blackhawks including the makeup of the D corps, draft strategy for the 1st and 2nd rounds, and direction of the franchise.
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Seth Jones
Trade details:
* Blackhawks receive Seth Jones, 2021 1st round pick, and 2022 6th round pick
* Blue Jackets receive Adam Boqvist, 2021 1st round pick, 2021 2nd round pick, and 2022 1st round pick
* If Chicago wins one of the the 2022 draft lotteries, the 2022 1st round pick becomes the 2023 1st round pick instead
Contract details:
* $9.5M AAV for 8 years
* Starts 2022-23
* Ends 2029-30
* Full NMC
* $5.4M cap hit for 2021-22
Salary details:
* 2022-23: $10M
* 2023-24: $12.5M
* 2024-25: $12.5M
* 2025-26: $10.5M
* 2026-27: $8M
* 2027-28: $7.5M
* 2028-29: $7.5M
* 2029-30: $7.5M
All that talk about Columbus desiring centers was untrue and/or Chicago wasn't willing to part with any of their own. It was clear that Kirby Dach -- as well as winger Alex DeBrincat and Lukas Reichel -- was off limits. The Jackets didn't want Dylan Strome or Henrik Borgstrom either.
Although 2021 1st rounders were swapped, the Hawks dropped from the 11th spot down to the final spot of 32nd. Also, next year's 1st round pick was lost but there's plenty of time to gain one back such as through a salary-eating deal to help out another team with cap woes.
The immediate contract extension obviously guaranteed that the assets given up weren't for just a single season. However, a root cause of fan anger with this trade was adding a second 1st round pick. One 1st rounder was inevitable but pitching in another was needlessly excessive.
Why was it overkill? The Jackets didn't have as much leverage as they should have given Jones wanted out of Columbus with a year left on his current contract. Plus, there didn't seem to be any other suitors which meant the Hawks were arguably outbidding themselves:
* The Flyers upgraded their defense by trading for Rasmus Ristolainen earlier on Friday and obtaining Ryan Ellis last week.
* The Avalanche have their own marquee players' contracts to address this offseason and next.
* The Stars reportedly bowed out of the running yesterday giving the Hawks a clear path to close the deal.
Impact on the Salary Cap
A second point of consternation is the $9.5M salary that Jones will earn for 8 years. Will that handcuff the Hawks from re-upping with their future like Dach, DeBrincat, Reichel, and Borgstrom as well as Dominik Kubalik, Wyatt Kalynuk, Ian Mitchell, and Nicolas Beaudin?
Looking through a lens of optimism, there's time to sort out the team's salary structure so that Jones' contract doesn't cripple the team in the long term. There are a number of factors that could work in Chicago's favor over the next several years:
* Jonathan Toews' $10.5M AAV could be gone in 2023 if he chooses to retire due to his chronic ailment.
* Patrick Kane's $10.5M AAV may be a tad less when he likely re-signs to extend his tenure in Chicago past 2023.
* Brent Seabrook's $6.875M AAV contract comes off the books in 2024.
* Andrew Shaw's $3.9M AAV goes away next summer.
* Duncan Keith's $5.538M AAV for the next 2 years is completely on the Oilers payroll now.
* Calvin de Haan's $4.55M AAV on an expiring deal could be flipped at the TDL or just allowed to lapse.
* Connor Murphy's $3.85M AAV also on an expiring deal could be flipped at the TDL or renewed at an uptick in the $4.5-$5.0M range.
The 2021 offseason is still in its first half, too, so there's more opportunity to shed salaries like those of Strome, de Haan, and Nikita Zadorov. High draft picks could be recouped as well in trades of these players or to take on other teams' albatross contracts.
Impact on the Blueline
One of the vaunted young 4 horsemen on the Hawks blueline was bound to go. It so happened to be Boqvist. Kalynuk may have surpassed Boqvist as the best of the bunch in terms of all-around play. Mitchell isn't far behind. Beaudin is poised to at least be a solid 3rd pair defender.
Beyond what's now the top 3, of course, there's more coming up in the D pipeline with Chad Krys, Jakub Galvas, Alec Regula, Isaak Phillips, and Michael Krutil in the AHL, Alex Vlasic and Wyatt Kaiser in the NCAA, and Louis Crevier and now Nolan Allan in Canadian juniors.
Not all will make it but it's still in the Hawks best interest to develop them as far as they can take them then use some as trade bait like in the Alex Nylander trade costing Henri Jokiharju and now the Jones trade involving Boqvist.
Additionally, there are also support blueliners who are young in Riley Stillman and Seth's brother Caleb. They could be fixtures and part of the squad who are around when the team is a contender again or be part of trades down the road to acquire assets to fill needs.
Impact on the Franchise Direction
Last but certainly not least is the frustration with the Blackhawks organization not picking a lane and staying in it. Is the franchise rebuilding or not? Giving up Boqvist, two 1st rounders, and a 2nd rounder in a trade is the antithesis to a rebuild, isn't it?
It could very well be true that management has lost patience and wants to hasten the pace toward contention by shifting from a rebuild back to a retool on the fly like they were doing from roughly 2015 to 2020. As that saying goes, you have to give to get.
Was that the right choice, though, for where the team is at presently? On the one hand, Seth Jones isn't a panacea as there are other holes that the team needs to address to contend again. But on the other hand, the team needed an upgrade on the blueline and Jones provides that.
Then again, as mentioned above, there's more offseason left to go so the makeup of the team and the impact on the salary cap and organizational direction are still a work in progress. And that's just this summer. Evolution of the team continues into the new season and beyond.
Preliminary Blueline Projection
Assuming the Hawks can ship out de Haan and Zadorov this summer, the D pairs could look something like this:
C Jones - S Jones
Kalynuk - Murphy
Stillman - Mitchell
Beaudin
Up next from Rockford:
Krys, Galvas, Regula
But if one of de Haan or Zadorov remains on the team while the other is elsewhere, the blueline gets altered to something like this:
C Jones - S Jones
de Haan/Zadorov - Murphy
Stillman - Kalynuk
Mitchell/Beaudin
Up next from Rockford:
Mitchell/Beaudin, Krys, Galvas, Regula
And if both de Haan and Zadorov are still Blackhawks by the season opener, the D corps could morph to something like this:
C Jones - S Jones
de Haan - Murphy
Zadorov - Kalynuk
Stillman
Up next from Rockford:
Mitchell, Beaudin, Krys, Galvas, Regula
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Nolan Allan
Sources: The Athletic, Dobber Prospects, Elite Prospects, FC Hockey, Last Word on Sports, Lines, Recruit Scouting, Scouching Report, Smaht Scouting, The Draft Analyst, The Hockey News, The Hockey Writers
Nolan Allan it is. He's a purely defensive defenseman who is razor focused at net protection, keeps it simple, manages gaps, uses angles, blocks shots, plays physical, and hits hard. While his offense is non-existent, he has above average skating to help transition pucks.
Many scouting reports describe Allan as suffocating as he closes in on puck handlers in the neutral zone and suppresses them in his own end. That ability to defend the rush is a welcome sight as it's much better than giving up the blueline and letting the opposition get set up.
Another thing to like about Allan is that he can flip the ice a la Duncan Keith by constantly disrupting plays, recovering pucks swiftly, and moving it the other way. He can also munch minutes without being a liability. And he is well liked by coaches and teammates.
While I did have Allan on my list of draft hopefuls, I had him pegged for after the 2nd round. Even a 2nd round selection would have been a stretch in my eyes. Regardless, his style is much needed on the Chicago blueline. If he reaches the NHL, what's his ceiling, though?
It's doubtful he's 1st pair caliber but perhaps he's the defensive anchor to the 2nd or 3rd pair. If he can be a standout defensive stalwart in the 3/4/5 spot and on the PK, that would be fantastic. But it does seem wasteful to use a 1st rounder on a lower-ceiling player.
Worse case scenario is Allan becomes the next Dylan Olsen. Best case scenario is he becomes the next Niklas Hjalmarsson but with more snarl. Along with Vlasic, the Hawks now have a pair of D prospects to groom as shutdown defenders who may not be out of place on a mobile blueline.
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Rounds 2-7
After giving up one of their 2nd round picks in the trade with Columbus, the hope is that the Hawks can not only regain a second 2nd rounder but also pick up a 3rd rounder as they currently don't have one in that third stanza. More picks in other rounds would be welcome, too.
Here's a list of draftees who I tagged as selections in the 2nd round or later but were taken in the opening round:
Forwards
* Zach Bolduc (C), Blues (17th)
* Tyler Boucher (RW), Senators (10th)
* Xavier Bourgault (RW), Oilers (22nd)
* Wyatt Johnston (C), Stars (23rd)
* Isak Rosen (LW), Sabres (14th)
* Chase Stillman (RW), Devils (29th)
Defensemen
* None
Goalies
* None
Next is a list of draftees to consider in the 2nd round or later:
Forwards
* Jackson Blake (RW)
* Colton Dach (LW)
* Dylan Duke (C)
* Nikita Chibrikov (RW)
* Samuel Helenius (C)
* Alexander Kisakov (C)
* Sasha Pastujov (RW)
* Prokhor Poltapov (RW)
* Aatu Raty (C)
* Simon Robertsson (RW)
* Red Savage (C)
* Logan Stankoven (C)
Defensemen
* Sean Behrens (D)
* Vinny Iorio (D)
* Kirill Kirsanov (D)
* Jack Peart (D)
* Oscar Plandowski (D)
Goalies
* None
Then here's a list of draftees to consider for after the 2nd round:
Forwards
* Ethan Cardwell (C)
* Josh Doan (RW)
* Florian Elias (C)
* Liam Gilmartin (LW)
* Justin Janicke (LW)
* Oliver Kapanen (C)
* Riley Kidney (C)
* Ayrton Martino (LW)
* Justin Robidas (C)
* Connor Roulette (LW)
* Martin Rysavy (C)
* Samu Salminen (C)
* Victor Stjernborg (C)
* William Stromgren (LW)
* Ryan Winterton (C)
* Trevor Wong (LW)
Defensemen
* Daniil Chayka (D)
* Kalle Ervasti (D)
* Artem Grushnikov (D)
* Aidan Hreschuk (D)
* Dmitry Kuzmin (D)
* Aleksi Malinen (D)
* Joel Nystrom (D)
* Anton Olsson (D)
* Guillaume Richard (D)
* Stanislav Svozil (D)
* Ryan Ufko (D)
* Cameron Whynot (D)
* Olen Zellweger (D)
Goalies
* Brett Brochu (G)
* Benjamin Gaudreau (G)
* Tristan Lennox (G)
* Arseni Sergeyev (G)
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IceHogs Schedule
This news pales in comparison to what's happening with the parent club but the IceHogs regular season schedule for 2021-22 was released yesterday. As per the usual, the Hogs will only play teams within the Western Conference. Last season was solely intra-division games.
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See you on the boards!
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