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Oilers vs Golden Knights Round 2 Primer |
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Tomorrow night we will begin the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs with the Edmonton Oilers taking on the Vegas Golden Knights. This marks the second time in three years that the Oilers and Golden Knights will face off in the second round. Last time, Vegas won in 6 games and would go on to win the Stanley Cup. The Oilers arguably gave that Vegas team the toughest time. Both of these teams are very different yet very similar to the teams they were in that 22/23 season.
To start off here, I wanted to take a look back at how and why the Oilers lost that series. That simple answer is depth and coaching.
Edmonton had six players who scored goals at 5 on 5 in Draisaitl(3), Foegele(2), McDavid, Ekholm, Bjugstad, RNH (1). Vegas meanwhile had 9, Marchessault(4), Barbashev(3), Eichel(2), Stephenson, Amadio, Hague, Roy, Smith, Whitecloud (1). Including special teams scoring, Vegas had 11 goal scorers while Edmonton has 8. McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard all dominated Vegas on the PP but at 5 on 5 the Golden Knights were the dominant team... sort of.
While the goals for/against at 5 on 5 ended up being 15-9 in favor of Vegas, shots at 5 on 5 were 135-124 in favor of Edmonton. Scoring chance for/against were 135-106 in favor of Edmonton and High Danger chances for/against were 54-46 in favor of Edmonton. So what gives?
A few things came into play here. The first and most devastating for the Oilers was the injury to Brossoit. Brossoit had an 0.852 and 0.844SV% prior to getting injured in Game 3. Adin Hill stepped in and the rest was history. The Golden Knights finished with a 0.933SV% at 5 on 5 while the Oilers finished with a 0.879%.
The other maddening issue in that series was how then coach Jay Woodcroft handled Jack Eichel. Jack Eichel was an undeniable force in that series and it seemed like most Oilers lines did not have an answer to him... except for one. When Eichel was up against Ryan McLeod and his line, the Oilers outchanced the Golden Knights 14-6 and were only outscored 1-0. Instead of trying to get that line out against Eichel more, Woodcroft kept putting out Bjugstad's line which were outshot 5-17 and outscored 3-0.
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Enough about the past. Do I believe this Oilers team is more equipped to play against this Vegas team? Mostly.
For starters, this Vegas team is not nearly as deep up front as the one from a couple years ago. In 23/24, Vegas was able to roll line after line of legitimate scoring threats relying on three key duos; Eichel and Marchessault, Karlsson and Smith, and Stone and Stephenson. While this Vegas team is still a highly dangerous offensive team with new additions like Hertl and Barbashev who led the team in goals in the regular season, they don't spread the wealth around like they used to.
In order to take out the Minnesota Wild, Bruce Cassidy had to stack Karlsson-Eichel-Stone all together to start to produce some goals. These were the last forward lines that Vegas deployed:
Karlsson-Eichel-Stone
Saad-Hertl-Kolesar
Barbashev-Roy-Smith
Olofsson-Howden-Pearson
For the Oilers if these are indeed the lines they see to start, the obvious focus will be shutting down the Eichel line and if Edmonton can find a way to do that they will have shut down the main flow of offense for this team. Easier said than done but even if that line gets it's chances they can only play so many minutes and Edmonton has the depth to contend and hopefully out score the other three lines.
The area the Golden Knights do have a clear advantage is on the blueline as this is arguably a far deeper blueline than the last time these teams matched up while the Oilers without Ekholm are a weaker team. Noah Hanifin is currently on the Golden Knights third pairing... that is depth right there. That being said Hanifin was on the ice for 3 goals for and 7 against at 5 on 5 while Whitecloud was on the ice for no goals for and 2 goals against so perhaps there are still weak spots for the Oilers to exploit. In fact, the only defenseman who had a positive goal differential at 5 on 5 for the Knights was Nicolas Hague at 2-1.
The last main focus; goaltending is a bizarre one to look at. In the first round, among the 18 starters (including Dobes and Kochetkov) Adin Hill had the 16th ranked SV% at 5 on 5 at 0.883% while Calvin Pickard had the 8th best at 0.912% Hill and this team struggled at 5 on 5 against a Wild team that has firepower but not as much as we have seen out of this Oilers team. On the penalty kill, Hill had a 0.813% while Pickard had a 0.769% so that remains an area that Edmonton will need to clean up and was something that they improved upon as the series went on. The other concern for Edmonton is that Hill's numbers did improve as the series went on going 0.906, 0.909, and 0.935 in his last three games.
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This is going to be a high octane high offense series which is both a boon and concern for the Edmonton Oilers. This team has the ability to roll 4 lines without much concern, each with the ability to score goals and provide some physicality. The opposite end of the spectrum is we have seen this Oilers D, especially without Ekholm struggle against teams that pressure. The Kings generated plenty of chances but time and time again when they get a lead you start to see their forwards back off and play a much more cautious game... that is not the style of the Vegas Golden Knights who like the Oilers are never truly out of a game. How the likes of Bouchard, Klingberg, and Nurse who we have all seen can get put on their heels, handle the more aggressive Knights could be the key to this series.
X FACTOR OILERS
In the last series I said a healthy Evander Kane could turn the tide and I ended up being correct. Again, McDavid and Draisaitl going nuclear is always a possibility and not fair so instead I will say Evan Bouchard. Bouchard was huge in the Oilers Game 3 and Game 4 victories and when he is at his best he is a premiere defenseman in this league. If he is able to eliminate his more destructive habits against a relentless Vegas team than that will go a long way to helping Edmonton win this series.
X FACTOR GOLDEN KNIGHTS
For Vegas I will say Tomas Hertl. Again, Eichel is the straw that stirs the drink and I expect him to be dominant. How Edmonton deploys the rest of their lineup against Hertl and whether or not they can come out ahead in the matchup could be the key to this series.
These are two teams that don't like each other and the Oilers will be looking for revenge while Vegas will be looking to prove for the second time that they are the better team. This should be a great series.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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