My last Guentzel blog had some great feedback in the comment section. A prevailing message I saw people discussing was that the Oilers don't need another high scoring winger and instead should focus on addressing the defense and the goaltending.
Reveen wrote the following:
How about chasing an upgrade on defense or depth in net.
K-man25 responded to Reveen:
Why start now?
And nanook82 wrote:
As always, it's about out-scoring our weakness
(I do read all the comments and would like to highlight regular posters more in future blogs)
Obviously ensuring the Oilers have a strong blueline and stability in net are crucial components to a Stanley Cup winning team. I just believe their play suggests they have that.
Here are some Oilers stats since Knoblauch was hired and the 23 games they have played since. All numbers are 5 on 5 play.
GF: 60 - 5th in the NHL
GA: 43 - 6th in the NHL
Scoring Chances For: 617 - 2nd in the NHL
Scoring Chances Against: 466 - 5th in the NHL
High Danger Chances For: 272 - 1st in the NHL
High Danger Chances Against: 199 - 5th in the NHL
Last season the Oilers were an absolute wagon going down the stretch. From the beginning of February until the end of the season the Oilers had the
fourth best point percentage in the NHL, going
22-5-5. That team had the
third most goals in the NHL at
82. They also sat
13th in goals against with 67. This year I am seeing a defensive group that is identical to the one last season, with the crucial difference being they have bought into their systems far more.
Defensive collapses are going to happen in games, that is the nature of hockey but over the past two months the entire defensive core has done an excellent job at limiting the awful turnovers and mistakes that plagued their game in the first month and a half of the season.
After an abysmal start, since Nov 13th among all goalies who have played at least 600 minutes (26 goalies) Stuart Skinner ranks the following:
SV%: 0.918 - 8th
GAA: 2.17 - 7th
GP: 18 - 8th
Those are quality starter numbers. For those hoping Edmonton could trade for
Saros, he sits at
11th in SV% at 0.916SV% and 11th in GAA at 2.40. Skinner is a strong starting goaltender. The coaching staff absolutely need to be careful with how much they play him down the stretch in preparation for the playoffs but that is another issue.
If the Oilers can do another Ekholm trade and get a Cody Ceci upgrade or get a guy like Mackenzie Blackwood out of San Jose to have a stronger tandem than fantastic. Right now though there is a more pressing need to upgrade the forward group.
Here are the minutes and numbers of the Oilers most regular lines as of late:
McDavid - RNH - Hyman
204 minutes
64.73CF%
21/8 GF/GA
xGF% 71.84
Draisaitl - McLeod - Foegele
67 minutes
56.67CF%
9/3 GF/GA
xGF% 61.29%
Ryan - Kane - Janmark
46 minutes
48.72CF%
1/1 GF/GA
xGF% 43.86%
Hamblin - Erne - Brown
29 minutes
43.33CF%
1/0 GF/GA
xGF% 29.96
The top line has been arguably the most dominant line in the NHL this season and the Draisaitl-McLeod-Foegele line is coming out with positive numbers as well. Things start looking far more mediocre in the bottom six. The strong defensive play and goaltending have prevented those lines from getting completely demolished on the scoresheet but they are getting caved in terms of chances.
Getting Guentzel is a fun pipe dream. If the Oilers could add a top six forward like him or someone else it would bump everyone down a spot. The more pressing concern is addressing the third line. Janmark and Ryan should not be regulars there. Once Holloway has finished his AHL conditioning stint, he is a strong internal candidate to help that line but I think they need at least one more external option.
Sean Monahan, Daniel Sprong, Adam Henrique, and Anthony Duclair are a few options of pure rental players that could be available at the trade deadline. Any of these could help the puck move the right way in the bottom six.
This is not about outscoring their mistakes. This is about being able to ice four different lines that all have a higher chance of generating goals than allowing them.
If you disagree with me, let me know in the comments!
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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