On a team level the Penguins are not getting the results they would like and have decent enough underlying numbers. On a player level Rickard Rakell is not getting the results he would like despite having decent enough underlying numbers. You could say Rickard Rakell has been a microcosm of how the Penguins season has gone so far. The talent is there and the results just don’t match up.

Given the poor results in the standings people are looking for changes to the roster. The way the Penguins are structured there isn’t a ton they can do. Trading from the top six forwards or the top four defensemen just creates new problems. It is a class rob Peter to pay Paul scenario. Furthermore, the suggestion of trading a player when they are frigid cold like Rakell is a recipe to not getting what you want out of a potential trade. The proper course of action for Rakell specifically is to stay stay patient because there’s evidence he will turn things around soon.

Rakell has the guts of what should be a solid start to the season. He has an xGF% of 59.59 which is only behind Radim Zohorna’s 70.89 among Penguins forwards. As far as shot generation he has his best shots/60 at 5v5 he’s ever had through the first nine games of this season at 10.39.

Here are his previous seasons.



The nine games isn’t a huge sample and isn’t worthy of a declaration this will be his highest shooting volume season of his career. It doesn't have to. What it does show is he is not underperforming this area based on previous years. He is getting the shots. The quality is very similar to previous years as well.



Between his shooting volume, his shooting quality, and his xGF% there are signs of a player ready to break out. I’d be way more concerned with Rakell’s start if these three areas were way below his career average.

I would not remove Rakell from the top six. I would shake things up by switching him with Bryan Rust. Rakell has had positive results playing with Crosby and Bryan Rust in his current form is certainly capable of finding success with Evgeni Malkin. For whatever reason in 656 minutes playing with Evgeni Malkin Rakell only has a 1.28 points per 60 despite a very respectable 53.27 xGF%. In his 740 minutes at 5v5 with Sidney Crosby he has a 2.27 points per 60 and a great xGF% of 58.96.



Moving Rakell to the Crosby line is a change that would seemingly benefit Bryan Rust as well. His numbers favor his time with Evgeni Malkin versus Sidney Crosby. Since 2021-22 (when Rakell arrived in Pittsburgh) Bryan Rust has played 615 minutes at 5v5 with Evgeni Malkin and has an xGF% of 58.47 and a points per 60 of 2.05. In 1,190 minutes with Sidney Crosby he has an xGF% 53.02 and a points per 60 of 1.76. These are solid numbers with either player, but if Rakell has better numbers with Crosby and Rust has better numbers with Malkin then the solution to try and get Rakell going seems pretty clear cut.



While the offense hasn’t come for Rakell yet this is close to a best case scenario we can have. Underlying evidence points towards a player who will find some better luck in the near future. We also have a very simple coaching change to try and propel the desired results forward without coming at the expense of another player. The team desperately needs Rakell to produce tangible offense for them to find success this year and I think it will be around the corner. Which is good news because it has to be given how the season has started.

Thanks for reading!

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