The trade to bring in Phil Kessel to the Pittsburgh Penguins has been nothing but a resounding success for the team, fans, and fans of memes. He has been a rock star. He is after all a two-time Stanley Cup Champion. There is very little to criticize about what the Penguins gave up and what the Penguins have received from the trade.
The talk about Phil Kessel being a personality problem in Toronto was transparent. He played on a crappy team and was one of the few good players. This led to the classic "place blame on the best player(s) not the bad ones" that we see so often in professional sports. Remember when the Penguins struggled in the playoffs for a few years and the genius idea by some was to trade Evgeni Malkin? Yeah, same thing.
I'm here to say that all of what was said above can be true while balancing reservations about the future. There are legitimate questions about the sustainability of Kessel's performance level moving forward. There are some trends that deserve to be discussed.
Before we go further this isn't a trade Phil Kessel this season thing. It's probably not even a trade Phil Kessel next season thing. It's an understand that aging curves are real kind of thing. Phil is going to be more susceptible than Sid or Geno. Phil will be 30 when the 2017-18 season begins. So will Crosby. Evgeni Malkin will be 31(!). Sid and Geno are superstars of their generation. Phil is a regular star. The declines won't be similar and that isn't meant as an insult to Phil. It's just how it goes.
Let's start with the good about Phil that is still likely to continue for the next two seasons. A lot is made of his goal scoring ability and rightfully so. His wrist shot is an electric moment in a sport littered with dull and meaningless ones. When Phil earns a step on a defender and gets to the top of the circle without the potential of a defender's stick blocking his lane you know a goal could be a split second away. That's really fun.
His passing, which used to be underrated, is now appreciated. We have some good modern tracking evidence to support that opinion now. He is consistently good with the puck for himself and others.
What makes Phil so good as a shooter is that he can do these other things as well. This can help create space for himself because defenders have to respect his ability to play make.
His two years with the Penguins have seen him register 1.99 points per 60 at even-strength. He is getting tangible results for his work thus far.
My concern is how long that process is going to maintain itself. There is evidence to suggest the decline has started and if the tangible offense dries up there isn't much left. Make no mistake Phil is not a defensive player and quite frankly he doesn't have to be when the generation has far outweighed the rubber flying at his own net. What happens when that changes? The shift towards decline has started on both the possession front and the offensive front, even if the offense is still very good.
The focus should be on the bottom part. There seems to be a strong correlation between the possession stuff and the offensive production. You can clearly see which direction things are going. The 2013-14 season is when Kessel was 26 years old. That is classically the last year of a players prime (24-26).
Again, this doesn't mean Phil is a useless player in the year 2017, far from it. It means we need to keep a close eye on the 2017-18 season to see if this decline continues its trend. It could plateau in 2017-18 and that would be fine.
Phil's greatest asset is his ability to get his shot off. We see a decline there as well. The iCF/60 stat is just the technical stat for how many individual shot attempts Phil Kessel attempts per 60 minutes of ice time. The more the better with Phil.
Phil's shot is just as good as its always been. He just isn't getting it off as much. This trend is concerning because he was playing with one of the best passers in the league in Evgeni Malkin this season and the decline continued. This puts a lot of stress on the shooting percentage aspect of things. Phil is a career 10.6% shooter, which is good. However, if the attempts continue to go down then the percentage has to go up to make up for it. That's usually a losers bet with somebody with as large of a sample as Kessel. He hasn't been above 10.6% since his 2013-14 season in Toronto (his 26 year old season). He's been at 9.4% the last three seasons, still good, but not enough to overcome the current trend if it continues. Alexander Ovechkin is another example of a player that needs to be tracked in this regard.
So to conclude. Phil is still good. Phil does not need to be traded this year. Phil is in decline. Aging is the root cause of the decline. The departure of an assistant coach will play no role because the decline from his 26 year old season didn't stop when he came to Pittsburgh . The decline deserves to be discussed and tracked moving forward. Pittsburgh will need value from that 6.8M cap hit. It will be around for five more years.
The trade has been a win so far and it needed to be. The best is probably in the rear view mirror for reasons out of the player's control.
Thanks for reading!
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