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Thursday night pix - 5 system plays!!!

April 8, 2021, 2:02 AM ET [5 Comments]
Puck Pix
NHL odds analysis • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Last night 3-0 +3.97 Units
YTD 161-138-3 +32.19 Units

It was nice to rebound last night hitting all 3 home teams in Scenario #2!

We have a great 10 game card tonight! Gotta love these Thursday nights with a large amount of games to choose from. Florida is still tied for first overall in the NHL standings with Colorado!

Florida and Carolina battle it out for first place in their division tonight as only one point separates these two teams with TB only a point behind Carolina. TB is in Columbus again and the Lightning have lost 5 of their last 7 games, so they need a win here on the road to keep pace with Florida and Carolina.

Plenty of teams fighting for their playoff lives and desperately need a win to stay in contention. NYR leads the list as they chase Boston, while the Bruins need to keep winning to hold the 4th spot in their division. Bruins face the Caps who are coming off a 5 game roadie.

Hawks and Preds need wins to continue the fight for the 4th playoff spot in the Central Division.

**I have started to research teams that come off at least a 5 game road trip and how they fare in their first game back home.** Its 7-6 to date. Caps off 5 game roadie!

Scenario #1 – Teams that are rested, either sitting at home or on the road while their opponent plays the night before. 17-7 over the last month of tracking it! Hitting at 74% rate! As well, the under is a nice 15-8-1 in these spots!

Scenario #2 – Teams that are playing each other in back to back games, in which the home team loses the first game, the record of the home team in the second game is 71-40. Hitting at 56% success rate. Sens and Wings fit the system tonight.

Scenario #3 – Teams playing back to back road games on consecutive nights tend to go under the total in the 2nd game. So far that trend is 32-23-2 when teams play on the road back to back nights. Oilers/Sens fit the system tonight.

Scenario #4 - One last angle I am tracking that is slightly profitable and similar to Scenario #1, is when any team loses the first game of a back to back against the same team, regardless if it’s on the road or at home, those teams are 91-66 in that situation. Lightning, Stars, Panthers and Pens fit the system tonight, but I am not playing them, don’t feel in confident in any of them.

Quick stat updates -
First period totals going over were 4-1 last night and are 277-323 on the season.
Road teams were 1-4 last night and are 279-314 on the season.
Game totals going over the total were 2-2-1 last night and are 277-294-20 on the season.

Gamenotes for tonight –

Oilers/Sens – Oilers have now won all 8 games head to head this season. Play Scenario #2 & #3 tonight!

Devils/Sabres – Don’t look now but the Sabres have won 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 games. Buff has won 4 of 7 head to head and 4 of 7 have gone over the total this season.

Flyers/NYI – Isles have won the last 3 after losing the first 3 to Philly.

Pens/NYR – Even though Pens have won 5 of 7 head to head, NYR has won 2 of their 3 home games vs. Pitt and the one loss was in OT!

Florida/Carolina – Panthers had their 6 game win streak snapped two nights in Carolina. Canes have now won the last 4 head to head this season after Florida won the first match up of the season. Both teams playing 4th game in 6 nights, I really like the under here!

TB/Columbus – Jackets have won 3 of 5 this season, 2 of those wins at home! Both teams struggling though, should be interesting to see who wants this one more.

Jets/Habs – Play Scenario #1 tonight! Jets have won 4 of 6 head to head this season while 5 of 6 have gone over the total. Lets see Carey Price is ready to return from injury, otherwise back to back nights for Jake Allen in goal.

Bruins/Caps – These two teams have split the first 4 meetings this season. Caps off 5 game roadie.

Preds/Wings – Nashville is still red hot having won 8 of their last 10 games. Preds have won 5 of 7 in the season series, including the last 3!

Stars/Hawks – 6th game in 9 nights on the road for Dallas. Hawks have won 4 of 5 head to head this season.

System plays for 1 Unit each tonight –

Sens – ML(+166)
Oilers/Sens u6.5(-118)
Wings – ML(+138)
Jets – ML(+128)
Bruins – ML(+102)

Non-system plays for tonight -

TB - ML(-212)

Good luck tonight!

Puckpix
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