|
Flight Plan: Critical Success Factor #1- Goaltending |
|
|
|
|
|
Follow me on Twitter: @teddier
CSF #1: Improve upon the goaltending statistics in GAA and save percentage
Of goalies who won 25 games or more only one had save a percentage less than Pavelec at .906 and that was Corey Crawford.
For goalies who faced 2000 or more shots none let in as many goals as Pavelec (191) and none had as high a GAA (2.91)
Fans and observers of the Winnipeg Jets are going to see somewhat of a revelation as the management group begins to reveal it’s strategic direction (goal) in terms of where it wants to go after year one. The tactics are how they (management and team) get to that goal and on my list from two weeks ago was the above: Critical Success Factor #1: Improve upon the goaltending statistics in GAA and Save Percentage.
Many if not all fans would nominate Pavelec as the MVP of the Jets. For the record I did not but not because of what this article is about. The Jets finished their hockey for the spring with 4 games left in the regular season when they were officially eliminated from playoff contention. When the season officially closed the Jets had allowed 242 goals against in total, ranking them at 26th or 5th worse.
In 5 on 5 play the Jets were the 23rd ranked team in goals allowed with 160 and only two teams who qualified for the post-season allowed more, Pittsburgh at 162 and Chicago at 170. An interesting point to note is that no one is suggesting Fleury be replaced yet many in Chicago are looking at goaltending as a key issue to be addressed and there is only an 8 goal difference between the two teams. Perhaps having names like Keith and Seabrook on defense makes goaltending fall into the crosshairs that much easier?
It’s also one particular aspect of the game which should be considered when discussing goaltending. Take note though, as a team, the Penguins were 3rd best in the league for giveaways with 491 for the year, Chicago had 588 and Winnipeg had 604. Defense, and subsequently play of the entire skating roster, is a difficult thing to quantify for effect on goaltending statistics.
In 4 on 5 play the Jets allowed 51 goals for the 4th worse record in that category. In other categories of odd vs even strength goals the Jets were a middle of the pack team showing no up or down tick to the good or bad. They emulated what they were: a team struggling to make it into the top eight.
When looking at the goals against the Jets were 12th worst for goals allowed in the first period, 11th in the second and 3rd worst with 91 allowed in the 3rd period. Only Columbus and the Islanders allowed more goals per period than the Jets in all three periods- not the two teams one wants to be compared too.
Looking closer at when the Jets allowed goals one can see that the Jets allowed 142 goals or 58.6% of their total goals allowed on the road, 3rd worst in the league, again. Combine that unflattering stat knowing that they only scored 44% of their goals on the road and it’s easy to see why the Jets road record was 14-22-5. A dismal .400 points percentage. The trouble is compounded when looking at PP goals allowed with 58 for 3rd worst in the league with only Tampa and Columbus below the Jets.
Looking at Pavelec specifically the trend of ‘third’ continues with GA during 5 on 5 play where the young Czech allowed 136 goals marginally better than Hiller at 142 and Ward at 146. Comparing his Save % shows that Pavelec had the second worst of goalies to play 68 games or more, of which there were only six. Hiller was marginally worse at .915 for even strength.
Special teams present a equally dire picture for the Jets and Pavelec. There were only two keepers within 10 goals (39 apiece) of Pavelec’s league-leading 48 power play goals allowed. When on the power play the only goalie to give up more short-handed goals was Marty Brodeur, who is a hall of famer and also now 40 years old.
To round out the bad news Pavelec also had the 2nd worst PK save % of goalies who played 68 or more games at .862. In that same group he had an abysmal .841 save percentage when his team was on the PP, allowing 7 goals on 44 shots. Only two teams in that group scored more goals than the Jets as well as blocking more shots than the Jets.
Pavelec is not the scapegoat for the Jets ‘goals allowed’ woes. He faced the fifth most shots of any goalie in the league and of goalies who spent more time on the ice only 3 saw more shots than Pavelec.
The question that seems to occur time and time again when looking at these stats is one much like the chicken or the egg. Is Pavelec a symptom of a bigger problem or the cause?
It would be hard to find anyone who could mount any argument against Pavelec and hope to be taken seriously, at least in Winnipeg. Yet some casual observers/commentators outside the Winnipeg market often looked at Pavelec’s game and questioned the praise heaped upon him.
‘Indifferent’ would be a word many would use to describe their outsider’s impression of Pavelec, but ‘in deep sh*t’ are the words Jets’ fans would use should he had been lost for any significant stretch of time this past season. Therein lies the debate about the Jets goaltending stats and the obvious need for the franchise to improve upon it this next season.
If the impression of Pavelec’s play, by those who observe the team with a frequent and critical eye, are that of a goalie who gives his chance a team to win night in and out- where do the problems arise?
The first and obvious answer comes from the idea of Pavelec being a ‘symptom’ and that would be due to the system. The coaches devise a system to meet the skill set of the team and their own philosophy towards hockey success. For the Jets the system may not match the players or key players may not match the system.
Looked at another way the Jets may have the right system in place or the right players but have not found the match after changing coaches, cities, countries, and ownership before last season. If you believe in the asset, an RFA this year, that is Ondrej Pavelec then the next question would logically be what will Chevy and Noel do to maximize that asset’s value? One that is going to have a bigger cost come the beginning of this season than it had before last season.
It should be obvious to all the reason why the Jets have to look at this critical success factor and deal with it effectively. How they deal with it is the intriguing part and fans should be learning the answer soon as wheeling and dealing time comes ever closer.
Enjoy the day.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
Join the Discussion:
»