As some conferences start their second season this weekend, it is officially that time of year when people start asking more and more about college hockey and what it all means...especially when it comes to the polls and the PairWise.
To review the basics:
Polls: There are two polls that are most commonly used.
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USCHO.com (US College Hockey Online) - voted on by selected Sports Information Directors (a team's PR contact) and some members of the media. Includes a Top 20.
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USAToday/USA Hockey Magazine - voted on by selected DI coaches, members of the media and a composit vote from the American Hockey Coaches Association and USA Hockey Magazine. Includes a Top 15.
On a national scale, only the latter is used. Within the college hockey world, both are used. That's why you will sometimes see something like "No. 8/9 Miami will host No. 9/10 Notre Dame this weekend." Both are released on a weekly basis and published on Monday afternoon.
PairWise: Because there are 58 teams under five conferences and therefore major differences in strength of schedule, the NCAA created
a mathematical formula to mesh it all together and determine where the best teams in the country should rank. It is updated after every game and considers their performance over the entire course of the season including strength of schedule, record against "teams under consideration" (teams with a .500 record or better), record against common opponents and head-to-head competition.
The way I look at it, the polls tell you how well a team is playing right now and the PairWise tells you how good they've been over the course of the entire season and against top teams. I've seen it happen where a team will split a weekend and drop five spots in the polls and maybe only one spot, if any, in the PairWise.
Some examples for you:
Yale is #1 in the PairWise, yet 3rd in each poll.- They had a rough weekend in January against ranked teams and their public perception as a very good team in a weaker conference took a hit, but they still only have 5 losses on the season.
Nebraska-Omaha is #8 in the PairWise, yet 12th in each poll. - Strong performances agaisnt TUC gave them a boost in the rankings, but not in the minds of voters.
New Hampshire is tied for #11 in the PairWise, yet 7th in one poll and 8th in the other. - They've been on fire as of late, yet struggled against top teams in the beginning of the season which has hurt them in the rankings.
In short the polls don't mean anything. They're a nice way to let the general public know if your team is good and if you're likely to get good value for the price of admission. Let me repeat myself...
THE POLLS DON'T MEAN ANYTHING!!
All that matters is the PairWise because that's what is used to determine who makes the field of 16 that will compete for the National Championship.
There is a little hiccup though... Each conference receives an automatic bid to the national tournament and it goes to the team that wins the conference championship.
Right off the bat, Atlantic Hockey does not currently have a team in the Top 16. Whoever wins the conference championship will be automatically slotted into the 16th spot in the tournament. Meaning the we are now left with a Top 15.
The CCHA, ECAC, Hockey East and WCHA are all well represented in the current Top 15 of the PairWise, which means one of the teams that are already in the Top 15 will likely receive the auto-bid. Things get shaken up and more pressure is put on the bubblicious teams when there's an upset and a team that isn't in the Top 15 runs the table and wins the whole thing to receieve the auto bid leaving us with a Top 14.
It's not likely, but it is possible to have five teams win their way into the NCAA tournament leaving the PairWise to determine only 11 teams. That said, a team can also
play their way into the tournament even if they don't win their conference championship since all post-season games are included in the PairWise. This is a huge advantage to the four conferences that are heavily represented in the current rankings. If you beat a good team, it can only improve your positioning.
For example: Wisconsin is currently 21st in the PairWise. They play Colorado College, who are 14th, twice this weekend. Two wins and they will jump up a few spots beacuse they will have won the head-to-head competition. Two losses and they've dug a deeper hole for themselves to earn an invitation to an NCAA Regional.
Speaking of Regionals...
The 16 teams that earn a spot in the tournament are then divided into sets of four. They call them regionals but usually geography is not often considered when figuring out who goes where. I've seen teams like Denver, North Dakota, Air Force, Michigan and Miami playing in the East or NorthEast regional more times that I can count. The same can be said for teams like New Hampshire and Boston College playing in the West or Mid-West regional.
Typically, the top team in the PairWise earns the #1 seed in the closest regional to them. Everyone else is placed based on competitive balance. Geography is definitely considered - afterall they want to make it easy for fans to travel and fill the seats to watch their favorite team - but more importantly, they want to protect the integrity of the brackets.
As it stands right now with three weeks to go before Selection Sunday, here's how the brackets would shake out.
East - Bridgeport, CT
1 - Yale
8 - Nebraska-Omaha
9 - Notre Dame
16 - Atlantic Auto-Bid
West - St Louis, MO
2 - North Dakota
7 - Merrimack
10 - Miami
15 - Boston University
NorthEast - Manchester, NH
3 - Boston College
6 - Union
11 - Minnesota-Duluth
14 - Colorado College
MidWest - Green Bay, WI
4 - Michigan
5- Denver
12 - New Hampshire
13 - Rensselaer
To put on my bracketologist hat, here's how I think the NCAA would tweak things to make it more travel friendly for both the teams and their fans.
First, I'd flip flop 7 and 8 sending Merrimack to Bridgeport and UNO to St Louis. - Merrimack is an hour drive from Manchester. UNO is 7 hours from St Louis. Better to keep both teams closer to home for easier travel and to make the games more easily accessible for their newly invigorated fan bases, especially the students. It's much easier to convince your friends to pile into the car and drive to the game - splitting the coast of gas - than it is to convince them to buy individual plane tickets. Knowing the programs at both schools, they'd probably even arrange a bus trip to bring fans to the game and pack the student section. It'd be a shame not to take adantage of the opportunity!
Next, I'd flip flop 11 and 12 sending Duluth to Green Bay and UNH to Manchester - UNH is the hosting school for the North East Regional. It might not be fair to BC who would be the #1 seed and would have to "share" home ice advantage, but it's definitely better for travel and more importantly, for ticket sales! Green Bay is easier travel for Duluth - both in regards to the team and their fans.
Then, I'd flip flop 13 and 14 sending RPI to Manchester and CC to Green Bay - RPI is a four hour drive to Manchester. CC has to fly no matter where they go, so send them to Green Bay and keep RPI closer to home.
Finally, I'd flip 15 and 16 sending BU to Bridgeport and Atlantic Hockey's Auto-Bid (likely RIT, Air Force or Robert Morris) to St. Louis. - same thinking as before...Whoever the Atlantic Auto-Bid is will have to fly...send them to St. Louis and keep BU in the East - easier travel and more fans in the stands.
Which means my brackets will look like this:
East - Bridgeport, CT
1 - Yale
7 - Merrimack
9 -Notre Dame
15 - BU
West - St. Louis, MO
2 - North Dakota
8 - Nebraska-Omaha
10 - Miami
16 - Atlantic Auto-Bid
NorthEast - Manchester, NH
3 - Boston College
6 - Union
12 - New Hampshire
13 - Rensselaer
MidWest - Green Bay, WI
4 - Michigan
5 - Denver
11 - Minnesota-Duluth
14 - Colorado College
Of course, all of this is only valid for the next 48ish hours as the rankings will change around 10pm ET on Friday night. It's pointless to talk brackets at the moment, yet oh so fun ;)
If you're sitting there saying to yourself, "Ok, Julie...now that I've read all of this, what does it mean?" The answer is....
Tune in this weekend to see Boston College and UNH battle it out in the front half of a home-and-home on Friday night (7:30ET, NESN). Not only are they fighting for positioning in the PairWise, but they are seperated in the Hockey East standings by just one point with the regular season title on the line.
Or...if you'd prefer some WCHA action, watch Denver and St. Cloud (9:30ET, FSN Rocky Mountain) as the Huskies - 19th in the PairWise - go for the upset and hope to leapfrog a few teams in the PairWise by defeating the Pioneers - who are 5th.
Then, on Saturday, you can watch Wisconsin and Colorado College (8ET, FSN Wisconsin) as they battle for positioning in the PairWise, but also for home ice in the WCHA playoffs.
If you haven't been paying attention to college hockey this season. Now would be a good time to start.
Julie
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@JulieRobenhymer
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