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Debates Regarding Hellebuyck / Free Agency: UFAs - Ryan Graves |
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Debates Regarding Hellebuyck / Free Agency: UFAs - Ryan Graves
Good morning Devils fans. The farther we get into this week, the hotter the discussion has been around the Devils and Winnipeg regarding Connor Hellebuyck. Winnipeg is possibly destined to lose Hellebuyck next season to free agency as they begin a rebuild. The 31 year old net minder is rumored to be looking for a long term extension after his $6.166M contract expires. The number that has been floated around is around Vasilevsky’s $9.5M. So should the Devils make a move for him? No, I am against this move for a number of reasons.
Reason 1 - Not Much of an Upgrade
Hellebuyck’s stats this season are really not that far off from Vanacek during the regular season and he was dramatically worse than Schmid in the playoffs this year. Per CapFriendly and Hockey Reference, here are each player’s breakdown with their overall record, GAA, and save percentage:
Regular Season:
Connor Hellebuyck - 37-25-2, 2.45, .920
Vitek Vanacek - 33-11-3, 2.45, .911
Post Season:
Connor Hellebuyck - 1-3-1, 3.44, .886
Akira Schmid - 4-4-1, 2.35, .921
Reason 2 - Age and Price
Hellebuyck is looking for a long term extension with big money attached. Should he get more than $6M a year? His argument is that since he’s playing better than Vasilevsky as of late, he should get that kind of money. The problem is younger, more successful goalies are getting less money than him. Why should the Devils, Winnipeg, or whoever else is in this race pony up $9M for the same results you pay $4-6M with goalies like Ullmark, Georgiev, or Shesterkin. Not to say those goalies won’t eventually push for pricy extensions. But they will also be younger when those negotiations happen vs. 31 year old Hellebuyck at his extension next summer.
Reason 3 - Keep Assets
Winnipeg will look to recoup valuable assets and jumpstart the rebuild. I’ve looked at their goalie depth from backup option David Rittich and minor leaguers Oskari Salminen, Arvid Holm, Mikhail Berdin and Evan Cormier. None of those options are statistically close to putting up decent starting NHL numbers. Winnipeg will want a goalie in the trade for Hellebuyck. I think Vanacek is too regular season dependable, Schmid has way too much potential, and Daws has the capability of being a solid backup option down the road as he develops in the AHL. I just don’t see a situation where we are happy with a trade for Hellebuyck. Maybe if it just involves picks, but even then, I’d rather have options at the draft than Hellebuyck down the road with a massive contract.
Reason 4 - Stay the Course
For the majority of seasons since the retirement of Brodeur, goaltending has been our achilles heels. Despite some flash in the pan seasons from Cory Schneider or Keith Kinkaid, we’ve been searching for not just a great goalie, but a great goalie tandem. The Vanacek/Schmid pairing is good right now. It’s not perfect. It struggled during the playoffs. However, I don’t fully blame them for the losses considering how hot and cold the whole team was this postseason. I’m a believer in “don’t fix what’s not broken.” We’ve had our highest regular season goaltender wins since Brodeur this year with Vanacek and Schmid showed some serious chops this playoffs.
GM Tom Fitzgerald will have his hands full considering this situation while still pursuing an extension for Timo Meier and continues to fill out the roster in preparation for next season. Best of luck to him!
Here are the UFAs currently on the Devils’ roster:
Offense:
Erik Haula - Suggest resigning at $2M for 2-3 years with bonuses to offset bidding war
Tomas Tatar - Let him walk
Miles Wood - Let him walk
Defense:
Ryan Graves
Goaltending:
Jonathan Bernier
Potential Leftover Cap - $10,532,500
Our next UFA to discuss is:
Ryan Graves
Fun Fact: Ryan Graves' hometown of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, has a chapter in the American Revolutionary War. Despite unsuccessful American attempts to raid and capture parts of Canada to strengthen their cause, many in the Yarmouth community sheltered and aided them. Fishing, shipbuilding, and trading are also important aspects to Yarmouth’s history and economy. You can also play a level in the “Assassin’s Creed: Rogue” game in Yarmouth, which is set during the Seven Years War.
Player Profile and Season Storyline:
Drafted at 110th in 2013, Graves has seen parts of multiple organizations, starting with the Rangers’ AHL affiliate Hartford Wolf Pack in 2015. He was eventually dealt to Colorado and continued to develop in the AHL before earning NHL minutes in 2018, scoring his first goal against the Rangers, ironically. He would establish himself as a league starter and regular, cutting his teeth with back to back multiple round playoff seasons. Eventually he made his way to the Garden State via a trade nearing the expansion draft of Seattle. Colorado received Mikhail Maltsev and a 2nd Round Pick in 2021. Since then, Graves has been a steady force for the blue line. His strong shot, physical frame, and playmaking has proven his value and made his trade to us a success in my opinion. Coming off a strong season, he’ll be a free agent this year and will look for a major long term upgrade for his contract.
Stat Analysis:
This season, Graves went 8G-18A-26P in 78 games played. He also had his best defensive NHL season with a plus minus of +34 and leading the team with 152 hits. According to Hockey Reference, he also had the biggest share of defensive points. The downside: he also gives away the puck more than takes away with a ratio of 47:23. He spent most of the season being shuffled in pairings with Marino, Severson, and Hamilton whether during event strength or special teams opportunities.
Benefits and Drawbacks for Bringing Back:
Benefits - Physical and skilled defenseman in his prime, consistently producing at the 25-30 points range each season
Drawbacks - Due for a large contract following his current $3.166M and takes up a competitive roster spot that could be earned by younger d-men
Should we keep him:
Verdict - On the fence. I know this may go against the current climate around Graves and his upcoming contract. But if we can afford to keep him following the other roster moves this summer, I’m totally ok with that. But there are two drawbacks. First we will get into a bidding war for him. His point production and age put his price around $5-7M. That would be tough to swing, considering we’ll have to sign Dawson Mercer and Akira Schmid next season and Luke Hughes the following year. Second, having Graves in the roster takes up a defensive spot that could end up costing ice time to a player like Simon Nemec or Reilly Walsh. In my opinion, Luke Hughes is a shoe-in for a roster spot. We could also trade away Brendan Smith for peanuts to make room and save a bit of cap space. If we could make it work for the right price, I say keep Graves. If not, it’ll be the free agency market for him.
If we walk away from Graves, that leaves our cap situation as:
Potential Leftover Cap - $10,532,500
Leave your thoughts or comments below. Raise Hell!
-Josh Biringer
New Jersey Devils Blogger • 
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