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Rangers-Capitals: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage |
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Rangers-Capitals: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage
I did this six post seasons in a row, the last in 2017, prior to the "rebuild," highlighting a few numbers and seeing if anything could be gleaned from them. These two teams have met none times previously, New York winning five times, the last occurring in 2015, when the Rangers rallied from 3-1 down. The two teams split their four contests this season with Charlie Lindgren and Igor Shesterkin excelling, so it will be interesting to see if the numbers tell us anything we didn't already know.
Win-Loss Record
Rangers: 55-23-4 (overall), 30-11-0 (home), 25-12-4 (road)
Capitals: 40-31-11 (overall), 22-12-7 (home), 18-19-4 (road)
The Rangers got off to a blazing hot start, regressed in January, then closed the season on a tear to finish first in the division, conference and overall league in points. New York started 18-4-0, then meandered a bit before hitting a 5-7-2 lull where many questions were raised, then went 26-7-2 to hold off the Hurricanes.
Washington looked dead and buried in January and had what looked to be a sell off, dealing Anthony Mantha and Joel Edmundson before DFA'ing and trading Evgeni Kuznetsov. The Capitals decided to hold off on the eulogies, clawing back into contention by going 9-5-2 in March, aided by the collapse of a few of the teams in front of them, especially the Flyers. A late rally by the Penguins fell just short while the Red Wings got hot again too late. Washington went just 4-4-2 in April, though they won four of their last five to squeak into the postseason.
Goals For/Against
Rangers: 3.39-2.76 (per game)
Capitals: 2.63-2.07
The Rangers finished seventh in the league in scoring despite struggling 5x5 during the year. New York improved at even-strength following the trade deadline, but still were heavily reliant on their power play. New York relied on somewhat balanced scoring, as five players totaled 70+ points led by Artemi Panarin's 120 pounds (49 goals and 71 assists) while Alexis Lafreniere posted a career high 57 points on 29 goals and 28 helpers. Vincent Trocheck had a career-high 77 points (25 goals, 52 apples) joined by Chris Kreider, whose 75 points also were a career-high (39 goals, 36 assists). Adam Fox, despite missing 10 games, tallied 72 points, including a career-high 17 goals, while Mika Zibanejad, despite his even-strength struggles, tallied 72 points.
Defensively, New York got slightly worse, going from 2.70 GA per game to 2.76 this season. A big portion of that was Shesterkin's struggles, as he went into the All-Star break with an .899 save percentage in his first 32 games, He went 17-5-1 with a 2.20 GAA, .930 save percentage and four shutouts in 23 games from Feb. 9 through the end of the season and enters the playoffs on a roll, winning seven of his last nine contests, including a shutout. Jonathan Quick has given the team a solid backup netminder, notching a .911 save percentage.
Washington finished 28th in scoring and the same in goals against, posting a minus-37 goals differential while getting outscored in every period this season. Keep in mind though, post-All-Star break, when Washington got hot, the difference was only a minus-six. Up front, Dylan Strome led the way with a career-high 67 points followed closely by Alex Overchkin at 65 points. The only other player to cross the 36-point threshold was defenseman John Carlson, who had 10 goals and 42 assists for 52 points. The rest of the team provided some support, with the key contributor Connor McMichael, who had a career-best 33 points while moving into a top-six role.
The big difference recently is between the pipes where Lindgren wrested the No. 1 role away from Darcy Kuemper in January and did not relinquish it. He started 34 of Washington's last 43 games, going 18-13-4 with a 2.84 GAA, .904 save percentage and four shutouts. Where he really excelled was down the stretch, as Lindgren started the last six games, going 4-1-1 with a 1.68 GAA, .937 save percentage and one shutout to will Washington into the playoffs. Lindgren finished 25-16-7 with a 2.67 GAA, .911 save percentage and six shutouts in 50 games (48 starts). Kuemper went 13-14-3 with a 3.31 GAA, .890 save percentage and one shutout in 33 games (30 starts).
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio
Rangers: 2.03/2.01
Capitals: 1.74/2.13
The ratios are not a major surprise given the scoring disparity between the teams, But it is a little closer than you might have thought, as just 24 goals scored 5x5 separated the two squads, evidencing some of the Rangers issues 5x5. The goals against issue for Washington is in line with their overall GA differential. The major disparity was on special teams, as seen below.
Power Play
Rangers: 26.4 percent, 65-for-241 (overall), 27.4 percent (home); 25.4 percent (road)
Capitals: 20.6 percent, 47-for-228 (overall), 21.2 percent (home); 20 percent (road)
New York had the edge on the power play, in terms of chances and conversions. The Rangers finished 3rd in the league in terms of PP success % and 4th in goals while Washington was 17th and tied for 20th, respectively. The Capitals rely on Carlson from the point along with Ovi from his home on the left dot and Strome as a setup man. Washington picked up their PP success rate the second half of the season.
The Rangers PP opened the season on fire, slumped during their lull, then ramped it up especially late in the season. The first unit still remains out on the ice a substantial portion of the man advantage, leaving crumbs for the second unit. The names are well-known to all of us, Artemi Panarin roaming the point or sliding down the left or right side. Chris Kreider as the net-front, shot-deflector master presence, Mika Zibanejad preferring the left hash for his one-timer, Vincent Trocheck in the bumper slot and Adam Fox coordinating from the point.
When the group is rolling, the puck and player movement is quick and decisive. When they overpass or fail to move, that's when they struggle. In addition, zone entries are not always clean, but they have done a better job in that regard. The hiring of Michael Peca as a coach has aided the PP substantially, diversifying the attack somewhat. New York's second unit, now consisting of Alexis Lafreniere, who deserves more time, Kaapo Kakko, Jack Roslovic, Alex Wennberg and Erik Gustafsson, the latter filling in for Fox on the top unit earlier in the year when he was sidelined, didn't contribute much. The first five had 58 of the team's 65 tallies on the man-advantage, the second potted seven, including one by Blake Wheeler, one by Jonny Brodzinski, scored when Zib was injured, and one by Will Cuylle.
Power play units for the Rangers are:
PP1: Fox-Panarin-Trocheck-Kreider-Zibanejad
PP2: Gustafsson-Wennberg-Lafreniere-Kakko-Roslovc
Washington is likely to go with Tom Wilson- Strome-TJ Oshie (if healthy)-Ovechkin-Carlson on their first unit. The second unit is probably Sonny Milano-Hendrix Lapierre-Max Pacioretty-Connor McMichael-Trevor van Riemsdyk. The old Caps power play was a massive weapon, the current version, a lot more muted. They rely on screens and overloading the front of the net for the most part with Ovi still blasting from the left dot. If Oshie is out, McMichael likely moves up, though Pacioretty could get a turn as well.
Penalty Kill
Rangers: 84.5 percent, 36-for-232 (overall); 84.1% (home); 84.9%(road)
Canadiens: 79.0%; 47-for-249 (overall); 77.1 %(home); 80.5% (road)
The Capitals struggled shorthanded as well, finishing 19th in the league with a 79.0 kill rate. New York was excellent all season, coming in third in the league at an 84.5% success rate. The Rangers had eight shorthanded goals, spurred by aggressive play up high in the defensive zone, while the Capitals had three. New York has set penalty killing units, Zib and Kreider on one pair, Goodrow and Trocheck on the other up front. The back end is usually Trouba and Miller and Lindgren and Fox.
Both teams were short handed around the same amount of time. New York, 13th in league at 390:21, while Washington was ninth at 385.32, a difference of less than five minutes for the season.
Hits-Blocked Shots-Missed Shots-Giveaways-Takeaways
Rangers: 1981H-1289B-1202M-549G-560T
2022-23 - 1978H-1205B-1048M-832G-677T
Capitals: 1878H-1419B-1047M-660G-626T
2016 - 2015H-1274B-1030M-748G-587T
New York finished 11th, 16th, 3rd, 21st and 16th in the league in the five stats. Washington was 13th, 6th, 23rd, 10th and ninth in the league in the five stats
From the 2022-2023 to 2023-24 season, New York stayed fairly static in hits and blocked shots. What is very noticeable is the increase in missed shots along with a major drop in giveaways and takeaways. A good portion of this can be attributed from the coaching change from Gerald Gallant to Peter Laviolette. The Rangers were given a bit more offensive freedom as long as they did a better job of protecting the puck and limiting turnovers, which also came with improved puck possession. New York gets in trouble when they try to be too fancy, especially in the neutral zone or blue line in the offensive zone, which has led to odd-man rushes and goals against.
Washington, who went from Laviolette to Spencer Carbury, saw some clear changes. Hits dropped substantially while blocked shots went up. Part of that might be due to their style of play, which is much more physical down low mainly in the offensive zone, which may not lend to as many hits, due to the offensive talent that now exists. Defensively, they focused more in their own zone down the stretch in an attempt to reign in the goals-against. A less open style resulted in a slight decline in giveaways.
Faceoffs
Rangers: 52.3; 2380W-2174L 7th
2023 - 49.1; 2183W-2266L 26th
Capitals: 46.7; 2126W-2431L 29th
2022 - 49.5; 2320W-2363L 18th
The teams ranked 7th and 29th in the league, which could be a major factor. New York rose from 49.1% to 52.3% while Washington plummeted from 49.5% to 46.7%. The work Michael Peca did and the start of the season acquisition of Nick Bonino, who brought tricks of the trade with him and 51% of his 406 draws before he was waived, helped. In order for the Rangers, Vincent Trocheck won 58.7 of his 1500 draws. Mika Zibanejad came out ahead on 548 of his 1112 draws, or 49.3% while Barclay Goodrow was successful on 54% of his 624 draws and Jonny Brodzinski on 50.2% of his 323 faceoffs. On the downside, Alex Wennebrg was well under 50% and Filip Chytil only was successful on 43.3% of his 67 draws before he was sidelined.
For Washington, Dylan Strome was by far and away their best between the dots, winning 52.8% of his 1320. Nic Dowd was next at 48.1% of his 1024 faceoffs and Connor McMichael struggled, successful on just 42.4 of his 872 draws. Evgeni Kutznetsov didn't help the team's numbers, earning a win on 45.3% of his 543 forays in the dot before he was dealt. This could be a key area of focus, especially in penalty kill or power play draws and late, in-game, key defensive zone situations. Managing who is on the ice and possibly having two center ice-men on at the same time is something to watch.
Record When Leading After 20 Minutes, 40 Minutes//Trailing After 20, 40
Rangers: 24-4-0-3. 34-3-0/11-14-0, 10-18-02022 - 23-4-0, 26-5-0/9-11-0, 6-15-0
Capitals: 19-3-0, 27-2-0/6-24-0. 6-27-02016 - 17-6-0-4, 25-2-0-5/7-19-0-3, 5-29-0-2
The Rangers went from 20th in win % and tied for 12th in wins when leading after one last year down to 17th and static, respectively, this season. New York used to be lead pipe cinch if leading after two, while they are still good, they are no longer a complete lock in those situations.
The Capitals were 27th in win % and 21st in wins when leading after one last season but rose to eighth in win% and 20th in wins. They improved slightly in wins and win % when leading after two, meaning that when they are able to get a lead, they keep it.
New York finished third in win% and tied for fourth in wins when trailing after one and first in win% and tied for second in wins when trailing after two. This isn't a surprise, as we all know the team had a franchise record 28 comeback victories this season. Washington was 25th in win% and tied for 16th in wins if trailing after one and 12th in win% and 10th in wins if trailing after two.
Record When Scoring First//Trailing First
The Rangers had the 6th best winning percentage and were tied for 2nd with 35 wins if scoring first, an improvement over the prior year when they had the ninth best winning percentage and 11th most wins if scoring first. Washington was 7th and tied for 18th in both categories, indicating that the Capitals don't get a lead enough, and when they do, don't always hold it. In addition, New York was 13th and Washington was tied for fifth in fewest losses when scoring first, showing that Washington was markedly better in maintaining a lead than New York, who liked to rally from behind. The Rangers were tied for 3rd with 20 while Washington was tied for 16 with 12th in wins when surrendering the first goal - separated by four wins - but the Rangers were first (.556) and Washington 23rd (.273) in win percentage in those cases.
Shots/Shots Allowed
Rangers: 31.5/29.5
2022- 31.5/29.3
Caps: 26.5/30.5
2022 - 31.1/31.1
New York was 12th in the league in shots on goal per game and the 10th best team in shots allowed at 29.5, just one less per game though than the Caps. Last season, the Rangers averaged the same number of shots per game, finishing 16th in the league, and were sixth fewest at 29.3 surrendered, just .2 less than this year. New York is fairly similar across the board, but the defense just looked better at times even with the struggles in net by Igor at times. The team improved in their own zone, but nothing substantially, as what looks to be borne out by the numbers, though the advanced metrics differ a little.
Washington was 30th in the league in shots per game and tied for 11th in the most allowed at 30.5. Last season, they were 17th in shots for at 31.1 and 16th in shots allowed at 31.1 per contest, so net of zero basically. The big difference in years is offensively, as they average over four shots less on goal per game. This dovetails with their struggles to score and type of offense run, which is below the hash and try and muck things up, rather than high-flying and shooting at will.
When the Rangers outshoot their opponent, they went 34-14-0-3, tied for second h in wins, which is a major jump from last year, when they went 27-15-0-3, 14th in league. Washington finished tied for 27th in wins at 11-8-0-5, a significant drop from 21-14-0-2 a year ago. When outshot, NY went 20-11-0-1, around the same as last year, when they were 20-6-0-10 (also 12th in league) and first in the league, while Washington went 28-23-0-6, first in the league, after going 11-21-0-8, 29th a year ago. What we do see is that the Rangers can play either style but don't have an issue when outshot while Washington is used to being outshot and needing to thrust and parry to stay close enough to rally.
One-Goal Game Record, Two-Goal Games, Three-Goal Games
The Rangers had the best winning percentage (.742) in one-goal games, up from the 26th best winning percentage (.405) a year ago. They were just 11th (.615) this season in two-goal games down from second best (.765) a year ago. In addition, they had the fifth most three-goal wins (24) and 10th (.632) in win%.
These numbers tell the whole story for Washington, more stats are not needed:
Overtime Record
Rangers: 8-1
Capitals: 4-6
These numbers basically can be tossed out since no 3-on-3 in the playoffs
Penalty Minutes For/Against
Rangers: 773/ 17th396:02/367:53 22nd/26th
2016 - 372:31/411:58 30th/20th
Washington: 628/ sixth/2016 - 440:35/407:55 10th/21st
Last season, The Rangers were 23rd in PP TOI (401:29) while Washington was 22nd (401:49) in the league. This season, New York actually dropped to 24th in PP TOI (383:26) while Washington fell to 25th (382:51). The Rangers rose to 13th in SH TOI (390:21) as they added 20 minutes of shorthanded time on the ledger, but that had little impact, seeing how NY succeeded while shorthanded. Washington was eighth last year in SH TOI (373:28) and ninth this year at SH TOI (385:21), a rise of about 12 minutes and about five minutes less than the Rangers.
Infer what you will from these numbers, and once the puck drops, most of these will probably just be a nice sidebar.
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