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Rangers 2019 free agency primer: if not Panarin, then what? |
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My lead the past July 1s has been the same, "free agency, aka the silly season, is once again upon us." That's true again this year. But because the interview period started a few days ago, many players are rumored to already be off the board. However, the big name, Artemi Panarin, remans unsigned, despite the several rumors surrounding him.
What we seemingly know to date:
Sergei Bobrovsky - likely taking his talents to South Beach, possibly seven years and a $10 mil AAV
Joe Pavelski - rumored to be signing with Dallas for three years at a $7 mil AAV.
Mats Zuccarello - possibly heading to Minnesota for five years and $30 mil
Matt Duchene - signing for Nashville, seven years, $8 mil AAV, modified NTC as a bonus for taking the salary shave (whereas in Montreal, Duchene would have likely wanted at least $10 mil)
Brett Connolly - around $3.5 M AAV on a four year deal with Florida
Corey Perry - heading to the Stars on a one-year deal. Expectation is a $1.5 million salary with performance bonuses attainable.
Cam Talbot - one year deal with Calgary for $2.75 million
Joonas Donskoi - Colorado, AAV between $3 and $4 million
Richard Panik - Washington, four years at $2.5-$2.8 million per
Jordie Benn and Tyler Myers - Vancouver bound
This is a broader list of "leaked" signings as of 10pm Sunday evening:
Panarin is still the big fish that's out there. Depending on who you believe, the Rangers are either still in it or no longer in the race. Bob McKenzie said that the Isles were the presumptive favorite to sign him and Semyon Varlamov, as they each share the same agent. But then McKenzie added that the Rangers were still in it. Per Larry Brooks, New York's max bid was around $11.25 million while the Islanders were rumored to be in the $12 million range.
One possible poison pill option is to front load the contract. Hockeystatminer tweeted that the Rangers can offer Panarin ~$45m salary in the first 24 months of a 7-yr $11.5m/yr deal, including a $16m lockout-protecting bonus next summer. Forever Blueshirts had a similar idea. That might have worked if only the Islanders were involved, maybe also the Flyers, but as you will see below, that isn't necessarily the case.
John Shannon reported that the Blue Jackets are still trying to convince Artemi Panarin to return to Columbus. Still hoping there’s a chance. Looks like a 3 team race. CBJ. NYI. Florida. Renaud Lavoie added that the bidding may be in the $13 million range. While Aaron Portzline wrote Sunday night, "amid reports that Panarin is likely to sign on Monday with the New York Islanders, the Blue Jackets have put a massive offer on the table with agent Paul Theofanous, believed to be eight years and at least $96 million, an average annual value of $12 million per season. The deal could be as high as $100 million, or $12.5 million per season." If that is the case, just walk away and quickly. I like Panarin but that price is insane.
If New York doesn't get Panarin, then what? Perry would have been a nice option to see if he could provide offense as a second line player. The $1.5 million AAV is reasonable - slightly higher because it's in Dallas with no state tax - but how easily the performance bonuses could be attained is the key here as to the true cap hit. Jacob Trouba's signing becomes even more paramount and likely to be in the $7.5-$8 million range. Deciding what to do about Chris Kreider also must be a major focus. You know my view, we shall see if John Davidson and Jeff Gorton feel the same way. New York could opt to fill bottom-six spots, creating competition, as I wrote last week, with players like Brian Boyle, Sven Andrighetto, Nick Cousins, Ryan Hartman (looks to be headed elsewhere), Marko Dano and Garnet Hathaway as possible options. None exciting, but each could fill a role.
New York may very well opt to maintain the rebuild course. The Rangers could wade into free agency next season, though the crop is not expected to be that enticing. As Rick Carpinello noted, "in 2021, they could theoretically have an additional $22.5 million of cap space (pending buyouts) when Henrik Lundqvist, Shattenkirk, Marc Staal and Brendan Smith come off the books." Not the ideal, but also a year where Vitali Kravtsov and Kappo Kakko could still be on their ELC, allowing New York to go full bore into free agency.
Rebuild or retool. The Rangers are rebuilding. Drafting Kravtsov last year and selecting Kakko this year likely resulted in the team's willingness to trade for Trouba. In addition, having both wingers also probably pushed JD and Gorton to be players in the Panarin sweepstakes even if the belief was the team was still a ways away from contending. Now, if Panarin does go elsewhere. maintain the course, don't double down in signing a free agent at unwarranted big money. We could see the Blueshirts wade into the offer sheet pool, but I also view that as a longshot. Stay tuned, tomorrow should be interesting, though a good portion of the drama has already been removed.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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