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Who Is the Best Forward in the NHL This Year? |
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With the Coyotes off on a bit of a break (Monday to Saturday) and ot trade action or new rumours to report, I thought it would be fun to try to determine who has been the best forward in the NHL so far this year.
Now, I could have said "Who should win the Hart" but I think the answer to that question is pretty obviously Carey Price at this point, even though I don't agree with giving it to a goalie and I don't agree it should go to the "player most valuable to his team."
I also think Drew Doughty should probably be a shoe-in for the Norris, but I'll leave that for another day.
Today I will try to determine which forward is the best.
POINTS:
1. Kane 63
2.Voracek 60
3.Backstrom 60
4.Ovechkin 59
5. Seguin 59
Kopitar 43
Points are nice and all, but with so much data available, they can no longer be the most important factor in determining who is an effective player.
GOALS
1. Ovechkin 37 (52 goal pace)
2. Nash 35
3. Stamkos 31
4. Pavelski 31
5. Seguin, Tarasenko 29
Kopitar 12
5v5 points
1. Johnson 39
2. Nash 39
3. Tarasenko 37
4. Stamkos, Seguin, Getzlaf 34
5. Tavares, Kane, Benn 33
Kopitar 19
Points per 60
1. Nash 3.4
2. Johnson 3.2
3. Tarasenko 2.8
4. Seguin, Getzlaf 2.6
5. Benn, Perry 2.5
Kopitar 1.6
Of note: Ovechkin (1.8) scores at nearly half the rate of Nash at even strength. He also shoots at half the shooting percentage.
Corsi For %
1. Kopitar 58.6
2. Bergeron 58.5
3. Toews 56.2
4. Pavelski 55.4
5. Tavares 55.3
Of note Girioux's 52.6 CF% was the lowest out of the 20 or so players I included in the exercise.
Also of note: Kopitar, Bergeron, Backstrom, Ovechkin and Tavares are the only players with PDOs under 100, of the players included. Kopitar and Bergeron are very low, as both have been sandbagged by low shooting percentages. For example, Kopitar - five ES goals - is scoring on 7.7% of his shots and Giroux, who only has seven ES goals, is shooting just 5.2%
Rick Nash has scored on over 15% of his shots and Corey Perry over 18%
Ovechkin's 8.6% means he only has 14 ES goals compared to Nash's 24 with double the Shooting Percentage. OV actually has 472 ES shots vs Nash's 383, although in nearly 3 minutes of extra ES time per night.
Final Analysis
Picking the best player is very difficult. End of the Year Trophies tend to go to exciting offensive players and they tend to be weighted heavily to a players reputation.
It really is difficult to decide what stats to favor.
For instance, Kopitar and Bergeron blow away the competition when it comes to Corsi. 58% is a wild total. Stretched over an entire game, that would mean that in 60 minutes, Kopitar and Bergeron's teams have the puck approximately 35 minutes to 25. If you could dress four centres to actually play 60 minutes at those rates, you'd almost never lose.
Kopitar and Bergeron essentially make their teams the best teams in hockey when they are on the ice. Kopitars most common linemates are Brown and Gaborik and Bergeron's are Smith and Marchand. So both players could have much higher point totals if they were in better situations.
Both players would benefit from better linemates and if you look at the board, nearly every player in the top 20 in scoring has better linemates. Give Kopitar a Benn or a Perry on his wing, I have no doubt he'd be ranked higher in individual statistics.
In the end, I believe that Ovechkin's 5v5 play is better than his reputation suggests - if he shot even close to a normal (for him) % so far this year, he'd be a lot higher on the list and so he is closer to Nash than maybe it seems at first. That being said, Nash is the 5v5 king, he plays 3 minutes less than Ovechkin at even strength, on average, and is having a great season. Still, the shooting percentage cannot be sustained.
Tyler Johnson is also impressive. The more you look at his stats, the better he appears. So, based on my analysis the top 3 offensive players in the NHL this season are Nash, Ovechkin and then Johnson. But it is only by the skin of their teeth that they are better than Tavares, Getzlaf, Stamkos, Crosby, Tarasenko, Seguin or kane.
The race of best offensive player has probably never been such an even race between so many guys. Which, is why I think this year voters should consider the importance of defense.
It is why if I had a vote and today was the day to cast it, I would give the Hart Trophy to Anze Kopitar because his defense is so good and his offense is in the same ball-park as eveyrone else's (especially if you adjust it to consider who his line-mates are and his low shooting percentage).
I am willing to go so far as to say that Anze Kopitar is the best player in the NHL.
As he is a rival and hated opponent of my friends the Coyotes, you'll have to forgive me for this, but: Anze Kopitar deserves the Hart Trophy for 2015 (unless you give it Price, which is fair but I don't like it.)
Stats from WaronIce.com, Stats.Hockey.Analysis.com and NHL.com
Thanks for reading.
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