Which team is most likely to come back from 2-0 down?
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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our thoughts on which team is most likely to erase a 2-0 deficit and advance to the next round.
I'm going with Carolina. Through two games, they have controlled 63% of the shot attempts and 60% of the expected goals at 5v5. Score effects help, of course, but they've had Washington on their heels for much of the play. With a little more luck – and discipline – the Hurricanes would be in a much different situation.
They say you're not in real trouble until you lose at home, and the Hurricanes have played well in large stretches, so I'm not ready to write them off just yet. Even if they don't complete the comeback, I expect they will be able to make this a real series.
I wish I could say Winnipeg but nope- they are cooked. The one team I could see coming back is Pittsburgh. The Islanders are a great story this year but they are backed by incredible goaltending while the underlying numbers are curious and concerning. If the Penguins get some momentum at home this game heads back to the Island tied and the pressure clearly on the younger and less experienced Islanders.
There's always a chance, at least for the Penguins.
The most likely team to come back from a 2-0 lead is the Tampa Bay Lightning. The NHL playoffs offer a roughly one in five chance for a team to come back, so it's not that far fetched that it will happen, even though it's unlikely. Since Tampa Bay is the best team, they probably have the best chance of doing it, although unlikely.
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