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In this edition of the hotstove, we share our choices for best player on the Nashville Predators.
Todd Cordell
As much as I like Filip Forsberg, the only answer here is Roman Josi. He’s been elite for years and he still managed to reach new levels this season.
Josi averaged nearly a point per game and led all defenders in points – and primary points – at 5v5. He was also a crazy good shot generator.
As impressive as Josi’s production numbers were, the on-ice metrics might be even better. No defender posted a better goal differential (plus-29) with 5-a-side. That’s no coincidence; the Predators’ numbers were *drastically* better with Josi on the ice than without.
Nashville’s share of the chances was 7.99% higher with Josi, and their goal share was nearly double that (+15.76%).
He played nearly 26 minutes per night and, clearly, was not impacted by the absurd workload he carried.
Josi is Nashville’s best player and should be the 2019-20 Norris Trophy winner.
James Tanner
Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg get the press, but the best player on the Predators is Ryan Ellis. Unfortunately, the NHL. media, and fans are not generally good at evaluating defenseman that do not rack up tons of points or lay big hits.
That makes Ryan Ellis - and peers like Jared Spurgeon, and Jake Gardiner - extremely underrated.
Sure, Ellis will give you 35 or 40 points per season, but that doesn't even begin to explain how effective he is. In a nine season career that includes over 500 games, he's had one season where the other team got more shots than Nashville when he was on the ice. For a full season , his lowest ever Corsi rating is 49.37.
Before being injured this season, he was on his way to his first ever Norris Trophy (or, since I have no faith in the voting, he should have been, but likely wasn't). Ellis finished this year with 54% of the shots and shot-attempts, while Nashville got an absolutely berserk 62% of the goals when he was on the ice. And that wasn't just a lucky year, he had a 57% expected goals rating.
In fact, if you round up whenever you see a .5 or higher (and why wouldn't you?) you can say that the worst Ellis has ever done in 9 seasons is make it so his team is expected to finish in a tie when he plays. I don't expect he will ever be a big enough star for it to happen, but he is in the middle of what should be a hall of fame career. It's not impossible that he's the best defenseman in the NHL. He is clearly Nashville's best player.
Sean Maloughney
When PK Subban was traded last summer, I questioned the overall return for Nashville but wasn't worried about a drop off in their defensive production due to one player.
Even before Subban was traded, Roman Josi was a dominant player and now that he is fully out of the shadow of Subban people around the league are finally taking notice.
At 5 on 5, Josi played more minutes than any other player and dominated those minutes. While on the ice, Josi's team produced 74 goals at even strength and Josi was only on the ice for 45 against. Josi is one of 7 players who played more than 1300 minutes at 5 on 5 (Chiarot, Pionk, Chabot, Burns, Bear and Nurse being the others) and Josi massively outplayed all in that category.
To make matters even more impressive, no forward on the Nashville roster surpassed 50 points this season (Forsberg was the closest with 48) yet Josi led the team with 65 points. Josi wasn't getting gravy assists from a 80 or 90 point producer, he generated his own chances and points. Only John Carlson scored more 5 on 5 goals as a defenseman (11 vs 10).
Josi is an elite defender and while Carlson will likely win the Norris by sheer points, Josi has made a fine case for himself.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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