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Lights, Camera, Struggles: the Disadvantage of the Toronto Hockey Market |
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Lights, Camera, Struggles: the Disadvantage of the Toronto Hockey Market
by Aaron Barrett
As a life-long die-hard Leafs fan, I can confidently say that this is the most hopeless I have ever felt about the state of the team. That is saying a lot. Considering that the Leafs are not too far removed from bolstering a roster with Blake, Stajan, Ponikarovsky, Stempniak, Kubina, Moore, Antropov and Schenn as its best players, it is astounding that optimism surrounding the team seems to be at an all-time low.
Why is this the case? Quite simply, it is because the fans have constantly been promised by Leaf's brass that there is light at the end of the tunnel. 11 years after the Leafs first missed the playoffs in the post-lockout era, the light has vanished.
When the team brought the mighty Bruins to an improbable game 7, its emergence from the tunnel seemed immanent. Now, two years later, it is clear that that was a mirage. I am writing this article, because I am tired of today's common perception that the players that started this season for Toronto did not have what it takes to be contenders this year.
This is not the case. In fact, the team was good enough to be a contender in the Eastern Conference, but it was stymied by a familiar aggressor; the media.
On paper, Toronto simply has on-ice skill that could match many of the teams that currently sit in a playoff spots. Most notably, when you look teams like the Red Wings, Islanders, and Lightning, you would be hard pressed to make a case that, on paper, their rosters completely outmatch the Leafsâ in terms of hockey abilities.
Similarly, year after year the Leafs seem to finish behind the Ottawa Senators; a team that for some time has been filled by over-achieving youngsters. Make no mistake, in terms of talent, the Leafs with Kessel, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kadri, Lupul, Phaneuf, Rielly, Gardiner, Robidas, Polak, Bernier etc. have no reason to be in the league's basement.
But, they are.
Why is it that every year the Leafs start off great but inevitably falter? Is it only a coincidence that the team over achieves each season only to plummet back to reality? This seems unlikely. Of course, there has to be an explanation for the Leafs persistent patterns.
The website www.sportsclubstats.com graphically plots every team's chances of making the playoffs at any given point throughout the year. Even though there are 30 teams in the league, it is very easy to spot the Leafs line from a distance; for three of the last four years, it is the one that hovers around a 90% chance of making the playoffs for much of the season before straight lining for 0.
This is not a coincidence. I believe it is a symptom of Toronto's hockey atmosphere.
When the Toronto media smells blood, they are willing to do whatever it takes to sell stories. It is no secret that when the Leafs lose a couple of games, writers from all over the country attack any individual who they can reasonably blame for the team's struggles. Yes, you can say that these men should be able to persevere through the criticism, but they are human and it is constant. Continuously hearing that they are bad at their jobs clearly causes Leafs players to (as they say) squeeze their stick a little too tightly.
Whenever I advance this line of reasoning, I get the same response; if teams like the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox, the Dallas Cowboys, the Los Angeles Lakers, the New England Patriots, Manchester United, Real Madrid etc. who likely all face similar media pressure as the Leafs can field competitive and even great teams, why can't the Leafs?
In response, I offer a two-part answer. First, and most obviously, the NHL's salary cap prevents the Leafs from simply outspending its rivals; if there was no salary cap today, the Leafs with its extremely rich owners in Bell and Rogers could easily be the New York Yankees of hockey.
Second, in the NHL, no teams face as much media pressure as the Leafs do, which cannot be said for teams in the NBA or NFL. To prove this, one can look at the values of sports teams. Teams that are worth the most have the highest incomes, and correspondingly generally have the most fans.
This is key, because the media only releases stories that they think people will read. Hence, the teams with the most fans are worth the most and face the most media attention.
According to Forbes, the average NBA team is worth $1.1 billion and the median team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, is worth $915 million. In the NFL, the average team is worth $1.43 billion and the median team, the Miami Dolphins, is worth $1.3 billion. In the NHL, the average team is worth $490 million and the median team, the Dallas Stars, is worth $420 million.
In a league where 19 teams are worth less than $500 million, the Leafs $1.3 billion price tag puts them as far and away the most valuable franchise. The point I am trying to make is that while the Lakers and the Cowboys face intense media attention, so do many of the other teams in their respective leagues. The result is that the majority of teams in the NFL and NBA (and the MLB for that matter) live through the disadvantages of media scrutiny; this puts them on a reasonably level playing field. In the NHL, it is a well-known fact that the media attention in Toronto is greater than in any other city.
Teams like the Red Wings, the Islanders, and the Lightning who are miles above the Leafs in the Eastern Conference standings simply do not have to deal with the pressure from the media and fans to the extent that the Leafs do. This is an enormous advantage.
One problem that arises with this logic is that although the media attention faced by the Montreal Canadiens is also comparably high, they currently sit atop of the Eastern Conference. Why can they deal with the pressure and the Leafs cannot? I can only speculate about the answer to that question.
One possible answer is that the players who don the red blue and white jersey are the types of individuals who thrive under pressure where as the Leafs players are not. I tend to favor a second potential explanation: the media in Montreal is not as harsh towards the players as it is in Toronto.
While many Torontonians cheer for the Leafs, because it is their hometown team, Montrealers cheer for the Habs, because they are a symbol of Quebec culture (see the book the Hockey Sweater by Roch Carrier for details). Perhaps, fans of team are thus less inclined to read articles about how bad their team is or about who is to blame for the team's failure.
If the fans don't want to read that type of article, news outlets will not consistently print them. Regardless if neither of these explanations are justified, it does not change the fact that Leafs and Canadiens players have to endure more media pressure than the vast majority of NHL teams.
So what is the solution? For me, it all comes back to the fans. Growing up as a Leafs fan, I know full well how fickle many "fans" can be. Even those who claim to love the Leafs are surprisingly quick to utter the words "the Leafs suck" at the slightest hint of struggle.
These are the same individuals who maintain demand for Leaf-bashing writers. And even when the Leafs are winning, it is still not good enough. When the team went 10-1-1 earlier in the year, the media and fans alike constantly criticized them for their inability to outshoot their opponents. Leafs fans love to be unsatisfied.
The result is that at a certain point every year, the media turns on the team. This inspires a vicious cycle; the criticism gets to the players and causes them to start losing, which inspires more criticism, which causes them to keep losing.
Therefore, the solution is for the media and fans alike to change their attitude towards the team. The Leafs are humans, and they need to be treated as such. Perhaps then will the light at the end of the tunnel reappear.
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