|
Skinner or Pickard? A Deep Dive Into The Biggest Decision of the Year |
|
|
|
|
|
Tonight‘s game 4 in Florida is the biggest game of the Edmonton Oilers season to date. And as of this writing the Oilers have yet to announce who will be playing the most important position for them in the most important game. Yesterday they said, this will be a gametime decision…
So let’s look at this today: The benefits of Stuart Skinner versus the benefits of Calvin Pickard.
There are three things that I consider the most important when making a decision on which goaltender to play.
#1. Confidence Leads to Offense.
It’s amazing to me how underplayed the concept of “team confidence in their goalie contributing to better offense” is. When a team is not afraid to make a mistake because they’re confident in their goaltending, they are way more likely to take chances and play the kind of hockey that you need to play to compete for a Stanley Cup. When a team is confident, and suddenly you see defenseman pinching better, quicker passes, and stretch passes attempted. We haven’t really seen much of that since game one in the series from Edmonton.
#2. The style of the opposition.
The style of team you’re playing against plays really should play into your decision. Of course, if you have a star like Bobrovski this matters a lot less, but when you have two goalies who played very different styles, like Stuart and Pickard, you really need to take this into account. Some goalies are quicker side to side. Some goalies are stronger against teams that crashed the net. Some goalies can be counted on to make big saves at big times. Some goalies can be counted on to not let in bad goals. Some goalies are better positionally, which equates to better against traffic in front.
#3. Historical References.
Finally, it’s very important to look at how each goalie has performed in various circumstances. Does a goalie rebound well after a loss? Does a goalie have a certain team’s number? Does a goalie have the ability to thrive under pressure or does a goalie tend to play further back in the net when losing their own confidence?
So lets look at confidence in Skinner and the Oilers creating offense.
To me, there’s one overwhelming stat that plays against Stuart in the series so far when it comes to this factor. In three games, Connor McDavid has one assist, and Leon Draisaitl has one goal. Of course the Panthers defense deserves credit for this, and the fact that Florida has two of the best defensive centers in the game, cannot be underplayed. How can the two stars get going? They’re going to have to take some chances. They’re going to have to be confident in taking those chances. They need to attack Florida without worry. When you look at the playoffs in general for the Oilers, the better Skinner plays, the more points McDavid and Draisaitl have. The best example would be in the conference final.
So how about the team style versus Skinner and Pickard?
So far in the playoffs Edmonton has played two offensive minded teams in Dallas and Vegas, and two well rounded teams in Los Angeles and Florida. In the Dallas series Skinner was amazing. As were Connor and Leon. In the LA series first two games with Skinner in net, the Oilers averaged 6 goals against In the next 6 games with Pickard in goal they average 3.33 goals against.
The major difference people were talking about was that Calvin Pickard was making the saves he had to and not letting any bad goals.
Finally, let’s look at history
Over the last two seasons, Skinner and Pickard have incredibly similiar numbers.
Skinner:110 GP 62-34-9 SV%.902 GAA 2.71
Pickard:59 GP 34-17-2 SV%: .903 GAA 2.61
So I was curious about how many goals the Oilers scored when Stuart was in net vs Pickard.
Regular Season
Skinner: In 51 games the Oilers scored an average of→ 3.08 goals/game
Pickard: In 31 games the Oilers scored an average of → 2.84 goals/game
Playoffs:
Skinner: In 13 games the Oilers scored an average of→ 3.46 goals/game
Pickard: In 6 games the Oilers scored an average of → 4.17 goals/game
One last piece of history that should be noted is that in game 4s of playoff series Stuart Skinner is almost lights out in his career. 6-0 GAA 1.26. SV% .955
Who do I think should start: it’s really close. My instinct is to go with Calvin Pickard and kind of start the series over. However, I think purely based on game 4 dominance in his career, I would give Skinner one more chance, but I would have an extremely quick leash. If he gives up two goals in the first period I’d pull him.
I think the Oilers have put out this narrative of “gametime decision,” as a way of distracting from the team’s general horrible play in game three. I do believe Skinner will start.
Join the Discussion:
»