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Thursday's 25 thoughts: What an algorithm says about Eichel deal |
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When the Vegas Golden Knights acquired Jack Eichel from the Buffalo Sabres the consensus around the NHL was Vegas general manager Kelly McCrimmon was the winner in the deal.
The Golden Knights are in win-now mode and they landed the No. 1 center they desperately needed, although he won’t be healthy enough to play for a few months. Eichel is the most proven player in the deal. The Golden Knights also get a 2023 third-round pick.
The Sabres received young center Peyton Krebs, a big winger in Alex Tuchs, plus a first-round pick in 2022 and a second-round pick in 2023. Like Eichel, Tuchs is currently injured. Krebs and the draft picks are speculative acquisitions. The Sabres hope they develop into impact players. No guarantees.
But Mike Santos has developed an analysis algorithm called Team 33 that concludes the Sabres won that deal. The former assistant GM for the New York Islanders, Florida Panthers and Nashville Predators has the data to back that up.
“When it all balances out,” Santos said. “Things kind of cancel out and Vegas increases its salary cap by $3.9 million and they are losing, when you swap out all of the draft picks involved, they are losing (the equivalent) of a two-way forward.”
The algorithm assesses the trade by assigning values to every player and every draft pick. Santos uses scouts to assess players’ strengths and weaknesses and the algorithm assigns point value based on comparisons to other players. The draft picks are assigned value based on round, strength of the draft and other factors.
The program even takes injuries and salary into account. For example, given Eichel needs surgery, he has a point value of 781. If he were healthy, he would be somewhere in the elite player range of 860 to 870. The Sabres’ third round pick was valued at 75 by the algorithm.
Krebs was valued at 506 as a young prospect with potential to be a first line performer. The Golden Knights' first-round pick in this year’s strong draft is valued at 377 and the second round pick at 267. The injured Tuchs is at 186.
That’s a 480-point advantage for the Sabres in the deal. The algorithm equates that point value to be equal to a quality two-way forward.
If you want to know why the Golden Knights didn’t want to give up Krebs, the algorithm can explain: comparable players for Krebs in terms of point values are Nick Robertson (514), Cole Caufield (531), Seth Jarvis (535).
Santos owns the Team 33 program and he is selling its use to professional teams in North America and Europe. Placing value on future draft picks is a primary selling point. It helps teams assess trades with more data.
Here are my other Thursday thoughts:
2. Keep an eye on U.S. NTDP center Logan Cooley as a possible 2022 early first-round draft pick. He has two goals and six points in his first five USHL games. Scouts seem to like him quite a bit. “Logan is an exciting player to watch, finds open lanes and open players,” said John Vanbiesbrouck. “Emerging as a top ‘04 (born player.)”
3. Chicago defenseman Seth Jones could have started better, but he does have nine
assists in 11 games and his Corsi is 55.0%. He’s also -9 on the season.
4. The Red Wings haven’t said why captain Dylan Larkin hasn't practiced or played since Saturday. Coach Jeff Blashill only says he is absent for personal reasons.
5. Freddie Andersen has played eight of Carolina’s first nine games in net. That’s a 72-start pace. The Hurricanes only have two games this week.. They will probably start backing off that pace on the weekend of Nov. 12-13. They have back-to-back home games on that Friday and Saturday. Starting Nov. 16, they play every other day for 18 days. That includes a five-game Western road trip at Vegas, Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose and Seattle. By the way, Andersen has started 66 games twice, but that was four and five
6. Appreciate that the Blackhawks, NHL and NHL Players Association are saying they are taking steps to ensure no other player will have to go through what Kyle Beach did in 2010. However, putting in safeguards is important, but continued oversight is just as important. What happens when the momentum of this subsides? One part of the well-executed independent investigation that has stayed with me: The Blackhawks had a policy in place that spelled out how to deal with situations like the Beach saga, but the policy was ignored.
7. Leon Draisaitl has 20 points in nine games. That’s a 182-point pace. It’s ridiculous to write that after nine games, but it gives me joy to mention it.
8. Could save percentages be climbing again? The average NHL save percentage has been going down since 2015-16. It was .915 that season and since then it has fallen all the way down to last season’s .908. It has fallen every season except 2019-20 when it stayed the same at .910. But this season, the average save percentage is .914 after 147 games.
9. It is still difficult for me to believe that the Calgary Flames offered what they reportedly offered for Jack Eichel. Matthew Tkachuk?
10. Ugly stat line of the week: Alex Pietrangelo, nine games, one assist, -6.
11. The ability to one-time the puck is a skill we take for granted in today’s game. But when I started writing about the NHL in the 1980s, only about one player in six could one-time the puck consistently and effectively. Jari Kurri was considered the king of one-timing because he seemed to always do it perfectly.
12. The early over-and-under on Adam Fox’s projected points this season was 72 at one gambling site. I remember thinking it seemed just a tad high given the demands of an 82-game season. Now that he has 11 points in 10 games, I wonder why I doubted the reigning Norris Trophy winner.
13. The Arizona Coyotes are going to have the season we thought the Buffalo Sabres were going to have. The Sabres are better than expected. The Coyotes are worse than expected. Can the Coyotes win 15 games? That’s two wins every 11 games. They haven’t won a game in 10 tries thus far.
14. Former USA TODAY colleague Paul White pointed out that goalies rarely wear No. 1 in the NHL anymore. He watched Eric Comrie wear No. 1 for Winnipeg a couple of days ago and wondered how many others wear No. 1. Turns out there are only four in the league right now, all back-ups. The others: Casey DeSmith, Brian Elliott, Jeremy Swayman. No. 1 used to be a standard for goaltenders. It doesn’t help that the Toronto Maple Leafs (Turk Broda, Johnny Bower), Detroit Red Wings (Terry Sawchuk), New York Rangers (Ed Giacomin), Philadelphia (Bernie Parent) and Montreal Canadiens (Jacques Plante) have retired their No. 1.
15. The New York Islanders’ transition game has suffered from Nick Leddy’s absence this season. It could be a while before Lou Lamoriello finds a defenseman in the trade market.
16. The Tampa Bay Lightning are still poking around the trade market for a replacement for Nikita Kucherov.
17. Toronto’s Travis Dermott is a defenseman likely to be moved.
18. By allowing Vitali Kratsov to play in the Kontinental Hockey League, the New York Rangers are hoping to increase his value. The Buffalo Sabres should work out a deal to land Kravtsov
19. The expansion Seattle Kraken have nine players under contract for three or more years, but only four of those contracts are for more than $5 million per season and none is higher than $5.9 million.
20. NHL teams seem willing to give quality defenseman $9 million and change, but no one is breaking the $10 million barrier. Even Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox got $9.5 million from the Rangers. That seems to be hill that general managers are willing to defend during this period of limited salary cap growth.
21. What are the odds that the Tkachuk brothers will eventually play together at some point. I’m not talking about playing together for the U.S. Olympic team. That’s a given. I’m talking about playing together on the same NHL team. I think it will eventually happen.
22. The Canadiens sent Cole Caufield to the American Hocke League to rediscover his confidence. What is it doing for prize young defenseman Jamie Drysdale’s confidence to be -12 for a poor Anaheim Ducks team? He had one five-game stretch when he was -10. It’s not his fault. The team isn’t good enough. Still, I enjoy watching him skate with the puck. Let
23. The Penguins announced Sidney Crosby will be out at least 10 days with Covid-19. That means he will miss four more games. He missed seven earlier as he recovered from wrist surgery. He has mild symptoms. Coach Mike Sullivan will also miss tonight’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers because of Covid protocol.
24. Nobody is talking about trading Evgeny Kuznetsov now in Washington. He has 13 points in nine games, playing closer to the way he did in his best of times.
25. Mark Messier turns 60 next month. Bet he’d still high-stick you to win the Stanley Cup.
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