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Are the Jets Choking? Blues=Best NHL Team for Final 40% of the Season |
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TONIGHT
This evening, we witness the pinnacle of sporting luxury as we witness another Game Seven. This particular Game Seven holds immense significance in Winnipeg Jets history, surpassing even the 1980s when they narrowly lost the last series to the formidable Oilers in seven games.
Expectations are high, and it is inevitable that some will criticize the Jets if they lose, citing their recent President Trophy victory as a reason for their perceived failure. However, I intend to elucidate that this situation is entirely different.
Firstly, these teams possess two exceptional goaltenders, one of whom was the most outstanding goaltender of the entire season and the other, the hottest goaltender in the last 20 games. These teams are very well match…way more evenf then atypical one-versus-eight matchup. In fact, St. Louis may be the most formidable eighth seed we have ever encountered, and here’s why.
Every team experiences periods of peak performance and periods of decline during the regular season. However, I prefer to analyze the last few months of the season, from February 1st to the conclusion of the campaign is the most telling when it comes to the playoffs.
Today, I conducted such an analysis and presented the hypothetical matchups for the first round if we had considered only the last 30-33 games of the season, commencing from February 1st. To ensure fairness, I opted to use winning percentages rather than points, as there was one instance where the points would have differed due to one team playing 30 games while the other played 33. Notably, all other teams played either 31 or 32 games.
Before reading this further, how do you envision these brackets would appear when considering the hottest teams and the best teams since February 1st?
I never would’ve expected what I would see but here goes….
* **Atlantic Division:**
1st: Toronto (.742)
8th: Florida (.583)
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2nd: Tampa (.703)
3rd: Ottawa (.629)
* **Metropolitan Division:**
1st: Washington (.597)
7th: Montreal (.613
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2nd: Pittsburgh (.517)
3rd: Carolina. (.517)
* **Pacific Division:**
1st: Los Angeles Kings (.712)
7th: Dallas (.629)
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2nd: Vegas (.700)
3rd : Calgary (.597)
* **Central Division:**
1st: St. Louis (.767)
8th: Vancouver (.548)
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2nd: Winnipeg (.707)
3rd : Colorado (.690)
This playoff scenario presents teams’ performances at the end of the regular season, which is arguably the most relevant factor for determining playoff success. Notably, the Washington Capitals defeated the Montreal Canadien in the actual playoffs, despite Montreal having a superior record from February 1st onwards. The capitals games versus Montreal were mostly close and hard fought and that’s not because the capitals choked. Montreal is a team fast on their rise. And Montreal lost their starting goalie..
It is also worth noting that Edmonton Oilers are the only Canadian playoff team absent from this playoff bracket, as they do not qualify based solely on their performance since February 1st. The Buffalo Sabres narrowly missed securing the final playoff spot, finishing just ten percentage points behind the Florida Panthers.
The next logical argument could be that some of the more formidable teams did not exert the same level of effort in the final stretch because they had secured their positions. While this may be true, it is important to consider the context of February 1st. The primary focus should not be solely on the shortcomings of the top teams, but rather on the exceptional performances of the lower ranked teams. For instance, the Penguins demonstrated remarkable resilience , while the Canucks performed exceptionally well down the stretch..
However, the St. Louis Blues stand out as the undisputed top team in the nhl since September. This makes tonight’s game essentially a clash between the reigning NHL regular season champion and the team that emerged victorious in the last 40% of the season.
So this is an all on the Jets playing poorly. It is crucial to emphasize that attributing their potential loss to a “Presidents Trophy curse” or simply labeling them as choking against the eighth-seeded team is really not giving credit or credit credits due to the blues. Tonight’s game promises to be an intense battle, with goaltending emerging as the decisive factor.
It’s gonna be a classic ….
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