Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Predicting Stats for the LA Kings First Forward Line & Defensive Pairing

August 2, 2018, 1:46 PM ET [10 Comments]
Bobby Kittleberger
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
In every sport, especially in hockey, players that have big offensive seasons tend to regress towards the mean. There’s a statistical median that proves difficult to get away from, especially in years following unusually high-output campaigns.

Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown and Drew Doughty all had that kind of campaign in 2017-2018. All three put up career-high point totals.

Add Ilya Kovalchuk to the mix.

Over my next few articles, I’m going to submit statistical predictions for each of the LA Kings four lines and three defensive pairings, as they stand today. The first forward line and top defensive pairing are up first.

Top Three Forwards


As of right now, the Daily Faceoff lists the LA Kings’ top line as the following:

Kovalchuk - Kopitar - Brown

I think it’s a safe (if not conventional) bet that you’ll see this stick for most of the season. I also think that Kovalchuk is going to gel on this line and be particularly effective on the power play. He’ll tax Kopitar and Brown’s point totals (especially goals), which means I don’t expect Kopitar or Brown to have another career-high type of season. However, the three as a collective should creep near 200 total points.

Kopitar: 24 - 52 - 76 pts
Brown: 19 - 39 - 58 pts
Kovalchuk: 24 - 29 - 53 pts


First Defensive Pairing

Muzzin - Doughty

Drew Doughty has now eclipsed 50 points three times in his career. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t do it again this year, even after getting paid and losing his Stanley Cup ring somewhere in the attic.

Doughty: 11 - 45 - 56 pts
Muzzin: 3 - 33 - 36 pts

If we bank on averages winning out, Jake Muzzin will see his first season in the 30 point range. I don’t see him getting close to 10 goals, just because I think Kovalchuk, Jeff Carter and maybe Gabe Vilardi will all be taxing goals from the rest of the team.
Here’s where we land with all five players:

Kopitar: 24 - 52 - 76 pts
Brown: 19 - 39 - 58 pts
Doughty: 11 - 45 - 56 pts
Kovalchuk: 24 - 29 - 53 pts
Muzzin: 3 - 33 - 36 pts


With more secondary scoring I have a hard time seeing anyone’s goal totals looking great. With Kovalchuk being the new power play darling, I’d be especially surprised if Brown gets anywhere near nine power play goals in 2019 (he led the team in that category last season). The same goes for Muzzin who had half of his eight goals last year on the powerplay.

New blood and a more balanced attack will cut into those numbers.

We’ll look at Carter’s second line and the second defensive pairing in a couple of days.
Join the Discussion: » 10 Comments » Post New Comment
More from Bobby Kittleberger
» LA Kings Drop Sixth Straight
» LA's Defensive Wheels are Off
» From Bad to Worse
» Defensive Problems Abound in LA
» Iafallo, the Kings Powerplay and Being Wrong