There are quite a few important contracts that need to be ironed out by Lou Lamoriello this offseason. The most significant decisions to make are with Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee, Robin Lehner and Brock Nelson, though you can also add less important players like Valtteri Filppula, Tom Kuhnhackl, and Luca Sbisa to that UFA list too. With the last three though, the Islanders probably aren’t going to benefit or suffer a ton whether they come back or find a new home. Filppula was solid in the regular season and actually very good in the first round but you have to imagine he’s not a priority for Lamoriello and the team will look to figure out their other contracts before his. But with under two months until Eberle, Lee, Lehner and Nelson hit unrestricted free agency, who should we expect to see back?


Most Likely: Anders Lee

After John Tavares departed, Lee took over as captain and played a huge role in New York’s success. Lee’s edgy style of game makes him the type of player that Lamoriello actively seeks and combine that with him being one of a few players that was able to produce offensively this year and he has to be a priority. Goal scorers are hard to come and Lee not only led the team in goals this year but has also scored 102 goals over the last three seasons, averaging to almost 35 goals per year in that time. Lee has only missed one game in the last three years, showing he’s a durable forward and not someone to worry about having injury trouble on a long-term deal.

What would his contract look like?

The only thing with Lee is that he’ll already be 29 years old next season. It’s not too old of an age for a new deal but most of the years on the contract will be coming while he enters his 30s. It’ll be the same age Josh Bailey was this season for the first year of his contract, so expect a five or six year deal for Anders Lee as well. Despite the fact that Bailey outproduced Lee this year in points, $5 million per year is probably the absolute minimum you could use as part of a range for Lee while this is a contract that we could maybe even see reach $7 million per year. That may seem like a lot but James van Riemsdyk’s five-year deal for Lee could be a baseline for what we’d see Lee make. Van Riemsdyk out produced Lee by a small amount both in career points per game and specifically in the season before signing, so if Lee were to take a five-year deal, it could realistically be coming in around a $6 million or $6.5 million AAV.


Next Most Likely: Robin Lehner

You could definitely make the case that Lehner should be the priority, based on his stellar season. My thought process was that Lamoriello may look to get at least one forward deal done early to avoid any sort of unlikely scenario where all three forwards head to free agency. Lehner was spectacular this season, going 25-13-5 with a .930 save percentage and though Thomas Greiss will be sticking around for another year, Lehner needs to be back in New York next season to bring stability in net.

What would his contract look like?

It’s pretty unlikely that Lehner would get a seven or eight year deal like John Gibson or Carey Price because though he’s had other successful seasons as well, there has been some inconsistency in his game from year to year that could scare off teams from giving him a ton of term. That being said, Lehner is a great age for a goalie to be signed, turning 28 in July. He’s likely to get somewhere between four and six years, with examples like Jake Allen and Sergei Bobrovsky’s four-year deals, Frederik Andersen’s five-year deal and Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk’s six-year deals acting as a baseline. Predicting AAV on a goalie contract isn’t easy to do simply because predicting how a goalie will perform from year to year isn’t easy to do either. Dubnyk is perhaps the best comparable to Lehner, as he had a .929 save percentage in the year before he signed an extension, with also some inconsistencies throughout his career. If you factor in the rising cap, expect Lehner’s contract to land somewhere around $5 million per year on a five-year deal, give or take a year.


Second-Least Likely: Brock Nelson

This isn’t to say Nelson won’t be back, in fact, there’s a great chance he does return. His contract just probably comes after Lee and Lehner on the list of priorities. Nelson was a solid second-line centre, though he wasn’t always consistent from game to game.

What would his contract look like?

One concern with Nelson may be how strong his performance this year may affect his contract. He’s consistently produced around 40 points per year, ranging between 35 and 45 points, which would probably put him around $4.5 million per year or a little bit higher. However his 25 goals and 53 points this year could put Nelson over $5 million per year and that’s a lot to pay for his production. With only one year producing at this rate, it could be a bit of a gamble on the contract based on what his asking price may be due to the great year.


Least Likely: Jordan Eberle

Though Jordan Eberle did have an excellent first round and very solid playoff performance overall, his poor regular season really leaves question marks surrounding his future. The Islanders have a lot of work to do in signing contracts before July 1 and his is likely to be the lowest on the priority scale. At his best, he can be a top-line winger but inconsistencies may have an impact on whether Eberle sticks around in New York or if the Islanders spend that money is spent somewhere else.

What would his contract look like?

It’s a little difficult to predict Eberle’s contract. The bet would be that with Eberle already turning 29 in just over a week and coming off such a poor year, he’s probably not getting a lot of term. It’ll be interesting to see what the AAV on his contract comes to though. If he produced at the same pace this year that he usually does, he’d probably be up around $7 million per year or maybe even more based on the cap rising. Now, it’s pretty up in the air as to what we can expect his contract to look like, based on how much a team is willing to take a chance on him recovering next year.


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