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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Colorado Avalanche:
1. Keeping it even
The Flames are the better team at 5v5, and by no small margin. They controlled 53.83% of the attempts and 53.14% of the expected goals while the Avalanche came in a little under 50% in each category.
Calgary's big 5v5 edge was evident during the regular season series as well, with the Flames out-attempting the Avs 152-117 (56.50 CF%) and winning the xG battle 6.95-5.28 (56.82 xGF%) over their three meetings. I know it's a small sample and injuries, scheduling, etc. play a role but those results are in line with what we'd expect from one of the league's top sides.
If the Flames can stay out of the box and force the Avalanche to beat them at 5v5, I like their chances.
2. Stealing the show
Philipp Grubauer is Colorado's best hope at making this a series. In a year where scoring was up across the board, Grubauer managed an impressive .917 save percentage – aided by a ridiculous .955 SV% over his last 16 appearances. He is a very good goaltender who, right now, is playing great. Though Calgary has a lot of edges, a hot goalie is the best neutralizer. I have a feeling Grubauer will be tested early and often. Let's see if he's up for the challenge.
3. Playoff Matthew Tkachuk
Besides being an elite two-way forward, Tkachuk is a super-pest and complete pain in the ass to play against. It's hard enough for opponents to resist targeting him and taking a dumb penalty in one game, so I can only imagine the frustration he'll cause over a full series. You know the antics we've all fallen in love with will be on full display tonight, and the Avalanche just might bite. Tkachuk is already living rent-free in Nikita Zadorov's head, it seems.
Excerpt from Rick Sadowski's most recent article on Hockeybuzz:
Nikita Zadorov was more blunt in his thoughts on Tkachuk, who’s also a top forward who had 34 goals and 77 points this season.
“I don’t think he’s a physical player, he just tries to get under the guys’ skin,” Zadorov said. “He’s a little rat on the ice, so we saw that before, it’s nothing special. We won’t make any specialties for him, we’re just going to go up there and play hard against them.
“I don’t think we have any players who’s doing that stuff. Our physical guys just play a physical game; they’re not playing dirty. If you want to be a guy like that that people hate, I don’t think it’s a good thing. He tries to draw you into stuff to make sure you take a penalty.”
4. An exploitable 3rd pairing
Almost everyone has star power. Maybe not Nathan MacKinnon-caliber, but star power nonetheless. The difference between good and great teams is depth. For example, the Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson pairing has been lights out since GM Brad Treliving acquired the former. Compare that to Colorado's 3rd pairing, which has garnered some pretty discouraging results.
In ~130 minutes together, Ian Cole and Patrik Nemeth have posted a 45.38 CF%, 43.14 SCF%, and 37.32 xGF% while being out-scored 9-3. They spend a lot of time in the defensive zone and struggle to get out when they do recover pucks because neither player is overly good at breaking out.
Would it be nice to get Johnny Gaudreau's line out against this duo? Of course, and Bill Peters will have an easier time doing so at home. But if he is chasing another matchup and CGY1 doesn't see much of this pairing, the Flames should still be confident they can find success.
5. Mikko Rantanen's health
This is a really big story in the series. If he's fully healthy, and on his game, he is capable of driving the line and making Colorado's top-6 a lot more dangerous. If he's laboring out there, the Avalanche have just one line worth worrying about. Considering that line will get a steady dose of one of the top-3/5 shutdown units in the league – with a Norris Trophy-caliber defender behind them – the Flames will be in really good shape.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau -Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - James Neal
Andrew Mangiapane - Derek Ryan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oscar Fantenberg - Rasmus Andersson
Mike Smith
Colorado (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Gabriel Landeskog - Nathan MacKinnon - Alexander Kerfoot
Colin Wilson - Carl Soderberg - Mikko Rantanen
Matt Nieto - Derick Brassard - J.T. Compher
Sven Andrighetto - Tyson Jost - Matt Calvert
Sam Girard - Erik Johnson
Nikita Zadorov - Tyson Barrie
Ian Cole - Patrik Nemeth
Philipp Grubauer
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on CBC, SN, TVAS, NBCSN, and ALT.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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