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1) One thing I like to look at prior to a playoff series – especially one with teams that take and draw a lot of penalties – is power play data. In particular, the percentage of shots and chances each player accounts for. It helps give you an idea of how a team will operate. Do they (in this case, the Colorado Avalanche) tend to funnel pucks to one or two players, or take a more balanced approach? Do they shoot a lot from the point or work for closer opportunities?
Let's take a look. Below, you'll see the 10 regulars on Colorado's power play units this season (Derrick Brassard has seen some time, but could/should be bumped if Mikko Rantanen returns – and the expectation is he will).
On the top unit, it's clear Nathan MacKinnon is 1st, 2nd, and 3rd option. Hardly surprising given he led the league in shots and finished 2nd in scoring chances. They want to get him the puck, and they want him shooting. Gabriel Landeskog gets plenty of looks around the net as well. On the flip side, if J.T. Compher has the puck you can probably get away with sitting on a pass as he accounts for just over one of every 10 attempts the Avalanche take.
The Avs take a much more balanced approach on PP2, which is hardly surprising given they don't have one clear upper-echelon talent. They work the puck around and if someone has a good look, they'll take it. Colin Wilson is the biggest threat in terms of chance generation but Carl Soderberg and Tyson Jost aren't far behind. On defense, Sam Girard is less likely to pull the trigger than Tyson Barrie on PP1.
Just something to keep in mind when watching.
2) If the 3rd line struggles in the first couple games against the Avalanche, one change I'd be quick to make is replacing James Neal with Austin Czarnik. I know the latter is smaller, doesn't have playoff experience, and all that jazz people will bring up but the 3rd line has been noticeably better with Czarnik on it as opposed to Neal.
Basically, the 3rd line with Neal does a little more than break even in terms of shots and expected goals. It's fine, and maybe they'll enjoy success against a somewhat shallow Avs team, but it's not great.
The 3rd line with Czarnik *is* great. They absolutely dominate opponents in terms of shots, chances, and expected goals. The Flames might not need a dominant 3rd line in the opening round, but they almost certainly would vs deeper, more talented teams like the Golden Knights or Sharks.
It'll be interesting to see if/when Bill Peters and co. go back to this trio.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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