While the Jets have the good news of Josh Morrissey being back and ready for action it also presents a problem as does the loss of Branden Tanev. The good news is that the faithful pairing of Morrissey-Trouba will be back. This duo has been the anchor for the Jets and in terms of possession stats they rank as follows:

(Min 900 mins played at 5vs5)

CF% 7th 51.28
RelCF 5th 2.1
GF% 6h 52.94
xGF% 7th 50.26
RelxGF 4th 2.07
PDO 100.86

Simply put when they are together and on the ice the puck is going in the right direction and good things are happening in the ‘fun zone’. The pairing is elite in terms of on-ice performance and they are an indisputable top 10 pairing in the NHL.

The troubling part is how does Paul Maurice deal with the shuffle of the other pairs that come with Morrissey’s return?

To get to the other main pairs for the Jets this season we have to drop the TOI to 400 mins at 5vs5 and up pops Chiarot Byfuglien and Kulikov Myers. For the first pair they have played 640 mins at 5vs5 and rank like this for pairings playing over 600 mins together

CF% 12th 51.9
RelCF 17th .42
GF% 12th 54.05
xGF% 15th 53.04
Rel xGF 8th 3.37
PDO 53.04 100.64

So this duo is a top 20 pairing in the NHL by this criteria and and like the Morrissey-Trouba pairing not really benefitting from some form of good luck as PDO indicates. Now comes the bad news the Kulikov Myers duo.

Let’s be totally clear that at some point there way some success between the two and they played some steady hockey but as injuries to Morrissey and Byfuglien happened the pair was forced to face more talented competition and increased minutes and problems emerged. Now the debate around these two is that they are capable in a role but when that role changes are the problems still the same but magnified due to competition or are does the pairing play differently?

(Out of 75 pairs with 400 mins TOI at 5vs5)

CF% 59th 47.26
RelCF 45th -.91
GF% 48th 47.5
xGF% 55th 48.2
RelxGF 44th .31
PDO 100.11
So from the top two pairs there is the drop off and now the question becomes are they kept together and managed against the right competition or are they split and Paul Maurice looks for a better solution? It would be hard to argue moving Chiarot down to play Beaulieu with Byfuglien given the Chiarot Byfuglien history of reasonable success. Chiarot’s recent play and decisions have left much to be desired lately but Paul Maurice is a creature of habit and he will need some rather convincing evidence to change this combination.

As for Kulikov Myers the odd guy out would seem to be Kulikov as Myers is the RHD and Beaulieu is an LHD. Myers and Beaulieu have played just 8.7 minutes of 5vs5 TOI since the former Sabre arrived in Winnipeg at the trade deadline. That’s not even a sample size worth considering but here we go.

CF% 54.17
RelCF 7.65
GF% 100
xGF% 68.89
RelxGF 24.31
PDO 120

So that means nothing and then even less but what do individual stats mean when Kulikov and Beaulieu are compared?

Bealieu

TOI at 5vs5 for the season 695 mins

CF% 49.32
RelCF 3.29
GF% 53.85
xGF% 46.91
RelxGF -1.05
PDO 101.66

Kulikov TOI at 5vs5 for the season is 819 mins

CF% 46.29
RelCF -1.91
GF% 51.56
xGF% 46.85
RelxGF -0.84
PDO 101.67


The players are a wash but with Beaulieu having a bit of an edge and where one can see a bigger difference is the CA/60 where Beaulieu is 55.08 vs 61.44 for Kulikov. The Fenwick percentage favors Beaulieu too at 50.1 to 46.1 and the eye-test would remind fans that Beaulieu seems to have a knack for getting pucks through traffic.

If the belief is that Paul Maurice should ice the best possible combination to manage the struggles the third pairing had had this season then swapping Beaulieu with Kulikov makes sense but Maurice is a creature of habit. He doesn’t like to make moves based on data like this when he can use what he knows, just like many coaches. However, given the impending cap crunch and moves the Jets will have to make does Kulikov have a future with the Jets after this season and if not do they owe him anyone come the post season?
At this point the numbers loyalists would say Kulikov is expendable and given the recent play on ice so should fans who watch the game and experience frustrations with that pairing.

Morrissey Trouba
Chiarot Byfuglien
Beaulieu Myers

This is where Maurice should start until he cannot anymore and while the bottom pairing does not have any meaningful time together would it hurt to try something different when the first two games are on home ice and match-ups and usage can be better controlled?

The question becomes about time and patience— can Maurice take his time to find a solution to third pairing woes and how patient will he be if things unravel against the Blues?

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