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2019 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Preview and Predictions |
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This year sees five new teams in the playoffs compared to 2018-19. In the East one Canadian team (Toronto) is in the party while out West, Calgary returns to the post-season, joining Winnipeg. Carolina, who picked second last season in the draft, qualified for the playoffs this year, joined by the Islanders (11th) and Dallas (13th). That shows how quickly tides can turn in the league. The reigning champ, Washington won the Metro and aims for their second straight title.
I will post the Western Conference preview tomorrow or Wednesday. In addition, I have projected out the Conference Semi-finals, Finals and Stanley Cup Finals. That will hopefully get
posted later in the week.
EASTERN CONFERENCE QUARTERFINALS
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets
Tampa Bay cruised all season, finishing tied for the most wins in NHL history, ending the year with 62, even with the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings, with a goal-differential of 103, by far the best in the league, Columbus, who went for it at the trade deadline, acquiring Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel, parlayed a late-season rush into the second Wild Card spot. While there is a 30-point differential between the teams, Sergei Bobrovsky has been on a roll the past month, making the Blue Jackets a tough out.
Tampa Bay had three, 40-goal scorers, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point, with Kucherov leading the league in points. Add in Tyler Johnson, who scored 29, and Yanni Gourde at 22 and scoring shouldn’t be an issue. The team is balanced from top-to-bottom, including Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh on defense. The Lightning have very few holes, including in net, where Andrei Vasilveskiy, who despite missing time earlier this season with an injury, finished with 39 wins.
Columbus is led up front by unrestricted free agent to be Artemi Panarin, who tallied 28 goals and 59 assists. Cam Atkinson tallied a career-best 41 goals while Pierre-Luc Dubois had a fine campaign, notching 27 goals and 34 assists. Add in Josh Anderson (27 goals) and a late charging Oliver Bjorkstrand (23 goals) and the Blue Jackets can score. Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are front and center on the Columbus defense. Bobrovsky, who also is a UFA, really found his game down the stretch, carrying the Blue Jackets to the playoffs, finishing with 37 wins.
Series Notes
Tampa finished first in goals, seventh in goals against, first in PP success at 28.2 percent and first in PK kill rate at 85%. Columbus was 12th in scoring, 11th in goals-against, 28th in PP success and tied for first in PK kill rate. The Lightning won all three matchups between the teams this year.
Pick
Lightning in 6. Columbus almost eliminated Washington last season, but an overtime goal by the Caps in Game 3 changed the series, as the Blue Jackets led two games to none at the time. They will give Tampa all they can handle but the Lightning’s depth up front and throughout the lineup proves to be too much. Tampa’s power-play proves to be the difference maker throughout the series despite the brilliant play of Bobrovsky.
Bruins vs. Maple Leafs
Boston and Toronto meet in the playoffs for the second straight season. Lat year, the Bruins prevailed in Game 7, 7-4 to advance to the second round. This season, Boston rode their big three of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak to the second spot in the Atlantic. Toronto, like Boston, has a big three in Mitchell Marner, John Tavares and Auston Matthews, who led the team in scoring. The teams were separated by seven points and are fairly evenly matched.
Marchand hit the 100-point mark while Pastrnak, who missed several weeks with a thumb injury, tallied 81 points and Bergeron, sidelined for 17 games, hit 79 points, Those three are bolstered by David Krejci’s 20 goals and 53 assists. Jake DeBrusk was a solid complimentary player with 27 goals. The production drops off dramatically after this group as expected. On defense, Zdeno Chara continues to log major minutes while Torey Krug triggers the attack aided by Charlie McAvoy. Tuukka Rask struggled early, ceding time to Jasoslav Halak, and bobbled a bit down the stretch, finishing with 27 victories, failing to win 30 for the first time in six seasons.
Toronto imported Tavares this off-season and he didn’t disappoint, scoring a career-best 47 goals while adding 41 assists. Marner led the team with 94 points while Matthews, despite missing 14 games due to injury, lit the lamp 37 times and dished out 36 helpers. Morgan Rielly took a major step forward, posting 20 goals and 52 assists. Balanced scoring dotted the lineup, as Kasperi Kapanen, Nazem Kadri, Andreas Johnsson and Zach Hyman each topped 40 points. Toronto added Jake Muzzin prior to the deadline to bolster the blue line. Frederik Andersen had a rough final month or so of the season, but still finished with 37 wins.
Series Notes
Boston finished 11th in the league in scoring, third in goals against, third in PP success and 16th in PK kill rate. Toronto was fourth in goals, 20th in goals against, eighth in PP success and 17th in PK at 79.9 percent. Boston won three of four matchups during the season.
Pick
Bruins in 7. Toronto failed to import a physical third or fourth liner or blueliner at the deadline. Boston plays a heavy game, which will wear down and take its toll on the Maple Leafs. Both teams have firepower up front and from the back line. Rask is a better goalie than Andersen, which proves to be the difference.
Washington vs. Carolina
The reigning champs took a while to get going but once they did, Washington went 14-5-1 from February 24 and earned first place in the Metro the final week of the season. Alexander Ovechkin showed no signs of a post-Cup hangover, literally or figuratively, notching 50+ goals once again. Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and John Carlson were the major members of Ovi’s supporting cast again this season. Carolina moved from 11th to second in the lottery last season, selecting Andrei Svechnikov. In addition, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin were dealt for Michael Ferland and Dougie Hamilton while Rod Brind’Amour replaced Bill Peters, who went to Calgary, and front office personnel turned over as well. The end result was a surprising playoff berth, the team’s first since 2009, keyed by Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen taking major steps forward with Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney manning the fort between the pipes.
Besides the big three up front, T.J. Oshie added 25 goals and 29 assists while Jakub Vrana started to live up to some of his billing, scoring 24 goals and 23 assists. Brett Connolly chipped in a career-best 22 tallies, matched by Tom Wilson, to augment the Washington’s attack. On the blue line, Carlson is the main weapon, but Dimitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen helped as well, though the Capitals will be without Michal Kempny, who is sidelined 4-6 months with a torn right hamstring. Between the pipes, Braden Holtby was again up-and down, but as we saw last season, he can rise to the occasion when needed. Pheonix Copley proved to be a more than capable backup, winning 16 games.
Aho posted 30 goals with 53 assists while TT added 21 and 55 of his own. Justin Williams, the ex-Capital, continues to roll on, adding 23 goals and 30 helpers. Ferland, a free agent to be, was very up-and-down his first season in Carolina while Svechnikov showed signs of being a dominant scorer, finishing with 20 goals. Jordan Staal missed 30+ games, but added 11 goals and 17 assists and has a playoff pedigree. On the blue line, Hamilton, despite whispers of being on the block again, led the team with 18 goals and 21 assists, while Justin Faulk rebounded to post 11 and 24 of his own. The biggest surprises likely were Mrazek and McElhinney, as the pair combined for 43 wins.
Series Notes
Washington finished fifth in the league in scoring, 17th in goals-against, 12th on the power play at 20.8 percent and 24th in PK at 78.9 percent; all of which declined from last season. Carolina was 16th in goals, eighth in goals against, 20th in PP success at 17.8% and eighth in PK at a 81.6% kill rate. Washington comes into the series lacking the pressures of prior years’ due to their Cup win but Carolina is playing with house money.
Pick
Capitals in 5. Carolina is a great story and I hope their one win comes at home so their post-game, victory celebration can be shown on national TV. But Washington is the better team and should advance easily. If Carolina’s penalty kill can shut down Ovi, maybe the series goes longer than expected.
New York vs. Pittsburgh
The Islanders are one of the surprising stories of the NHL, rebounding from the loss of John Tavares to make the playoffs. Adding coach Barry Trotz and goaltending coach Mitch Korn made a material difference in helping New York return to the postseason. Mathew Barzal regressed from his Calder Trophy winning output, yet still led the team with 62 points. Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee, each of who broke the 50-point barrier, supported Bailey up front. Pittsburgh showed a few more cracks in the armor this, failing to win 50 games for the second straight season while finishing third in the Metro. Sidney Crosby hit the 100-point mark once again while Phil Kessel, despite long stretches without scoring a goal, still tallied 82 points, 27 of which were goals. Jake Guentzel took his game to the next level, scoring 40 goals with 36 assists while Evgeni Malkin, despite missing 14 games, notched 72 points.
Casey Cizikas came out of nowhere to score 20 goals while Jordan Eberle, Valtteri Filppula and Anthony Beauvillier each finished just shy of the 20-goal mark. The Islanders’ third and fourth line play better than the sum of their individual parts For New York, Ryan Pulock was the team’s best blueliner, notching nine goals and 28 assists, while also posting a plus-21 rating. The remainder of the defense is passable, though Nick Leddy can produce offensively and Johnny Boychuk has his moments. The main difference between this year and the past is the play of Thomas Greiss and Robin Lehner, the latter signing a one-year, $1.5 million deal with New York last off-season. The two goalies shared the Jennings Trophy for fewest goals allowed in the league.
Pittsburgh was top-heavy offensively, as the balance the team had in year’s past was lacking. Importing Jared McCann and Bjugstad in the Derick Brassard deal lengthened the lineup, making the team dangerous. Patric Hornqvist missed time with an injury, notching only 18 goals and Bryan Rust got off to a slow start, rallied in mid-season but faded late, finishing with 18 markers as well. On the blue line, when healthy, as he looks to be now, Kris Letang is still an elite defenseman. He missed 17 games, yet still notched 16 goals and 40 assists. Justin Schultz missed four months with a fractured lower leg, but returned in February and is now healthy. Murray has shown he can carry the team to a Cup, though he has never regained the form he showed during the winning run just a few seasons ago. His overall numbers were excellent, though he did allow at least three goals in three of his last five games. (updates were made following the receipt of feedback so that the information was as accurate as possible)
Series Notes
New York was 22nd in goals, first in goals against, 29th in PP success and 18th in PK kill rate at 79.9%. Pittsburgh finished sixth in league in goals, 18th in goals against, fifth in PP success at 24.6% and 19th in PK.
Pick
Islanders in 7. On paper, Pittsburgh should dominate this series, especially on their power play. The Islanders have the edge in net, seeing how well Greiss and Lehner played this season. Unknown is how Trotz will rotate the goalies. This call is a hunch based on how well the Islanders played at the Coliseum and home ice boost they should receive from the games there. If Pittsburgh wins Game 1, then all bets are off in this prediction.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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