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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Minnesota Wild:
1. A massive 5v5 disadvantage
I talk about this seemingly every game and will continue to do so until something changes. The Devils are really struggling at 5v5 right now. Over the last 10 games, they've controlled 43.21% of the attempts and 45.79% of the chances. They rank at or near the bottom of the league in both categories.
Meanwhile, the Wild are trending upwards at 5v5. They've dominated opponents in that game state, controlling 54.63% of the attempts and 53.53% of the chances during the same stretch.
If that's not enough cause for concern about New Jersey's ability to accomplish much at 5v5, let's throw their schedule into the pot. This is a back-to-back, 3-in-4, 4-in-6, *and* 6-in-9 situation to conclude a road trip. They are horrible at 5v5 to begin with and now they'll be dead tired in a get-home spot.
I think they'll need plenty of puck luck to have any chance of out-scoring the Wild at full-strength.
2. A point of attack
If the Devils are going to find success tonight, they'll probably need some help from the power play. The good news is there's reason to believe they could get it. They draw 3.97 penalties per 60 minutes, which is the 6th best rate in the league. Should the power play opportunities be there, they could do some damage against the Wild. They rank in the bottom half of the league in shot attempts and expected goals against/60, and are playing without a key penalty killer in Mikko Koivu.
3. Limiting the damage
Keith Kinkaid has allowed three goals or more in eight of his last nine starts and posted a putrid .877 save percentage in that time. That's not all on him – the defense has often been rocky – but he certainly hasn't helped his own cause. With the Devils struggling mightily to create offense, and in an awful schedule spot, it's not realistic to expect 3-4+ goals tonight. For them to have a shot, Kinkaid will have to step up.
4. Zach Parise in the paint
The former Devil is quietly putting together an excellent season for the Wild. He leads the team in goals (23), points (49), chances (167), and high-danger chances (103), which is not exactly surprising given he lives around the net and works tirelessly for every opportunity. Considering New Jersey's struggles defending that area, it's fair to assume Parise will cause some serious problems in this one.
5. Marcus Johansson's offense
His play of late is one of the few bright spots. He has four goals (T-1st), eight points (T-1st), 18 chances (3rd), and 10 high-danger looks (2nd) over the last 10 games. He's getting a lot of run – Kyle Palmieri and Nico Hischier are the only Devils forwards with more ice during that time – and is making the most of it. If the plan is to trade Johansson at the deadline and recoup the picks they initially parted with, this will surely help the cause.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
Jesper Bratt - Nico Hischier - Joey Anderson
Marcus Johansson - Travis Zajac - Kyle Palmieri
Nick Lappin - Pavel Zacha - Kenny Agostino
Brett Seney - Kevin Rooney - Drew Stafford
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Steven Santini
Mirco Mueller - Ben Lovejoy
Keith Kinkaid
Minnesota (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Zach Parise - Mikael Granlund - Charlie Coyle
Jordan Greenway - Eric Staal - Jason Zucker
Marcus Foligno - Joel Eriksson Ek - Luke Kunin
Kyle Rau - Matt Hendricks - Victor Rask
Ryan Suter - Jared Spurgeon
Anthony Bitetto - Jonas Brodin
Nick Seeler - Greg Pateryn
Devan Dubnyk
Puck drop is just after 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG+, FS-N and FS-WI.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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