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Five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the Tampa Bay Lightning:
1. Time to show up
The Devils have been completely out-classed by the Lightning this season losing both meetings by at least three goals. On aggregate, the Lightning are up 13-5 in the season series. Plus-8 after two games! Perhaps equally as embarrassing: the Bolts have recorded more attempts, shots on goal, and high-danger chances than the Devils at 5v5 despite playing from ahead for the vast majority of the time. Even though the Lightning have had little reason to keep their foot on the gas, they've still out-played the Devils. One would think the latter would get up for games against the Lightning considering how last season ended but that simply hasn't been the case. At least it hasn't shown on the ice. With two horrendous losses already in the books, and the Devils desperately in need of two points, I would expect them to come out with a much better effort in this one. It's a low bar, I know.
2. NJ1 vs TB2
If I'm John Hynes, I'm getting Taylor Hall out against the Tyler Johnson - Brayden Point - Nikita Kucherov line whenever I can. As good as they are offensively, they're somehow worse defensively. At 5v5, they're giving up 39.76 chances per 60 and 16.94 high-danger chances per 60. Those are bigger numbers than what they're generating (37.55 SCF/60, 13.25 HDCF/60). The top line is definitely capable of capitalizing if the opportunities are there and they should be vs TB2.
3. A big edge in goal
Louis Domingue is not good. Among 38 goaltenders who have logged at least 500 minutes at 5v5, Domingue ranks 34th in save percentage (.904) and has stopped -4.98 goals above average, per NaturalStatTrick. Comparatively, Keith Kinkaid sits 21st in save percentage (.923) and has stopped 1.53 goals above average. Kinkaid is nothing special but he's played noticeably better than Domingue this year. The Devils need that to be the case again tonight because they don't have many edges against this stacked Lightning squad.
4. Sitting on Stamkos
Though Stamkos only has two of the Lightning's league-leading 27 power play goals, it's not due to a lack of chances or involvement. The PP largely runs through him. He ranks 1st on the Lightning accounting for 33% of the shot attempts and 30% of the chances he is on the ice for. Nikita Kucherov (28% of the attempts, 24% of the chances) is really the only guy who is close. The Lightning very clearly prioritize feeding Stamkos shots. PKers will need to be on high-alert and close extremely fast any time he's on the ice.
5. Power(less) play
The Devils have scored two power play goals over the last 13 games. Two! No team has scored fewer PPGs during that time and their chance numbers (28th in SCF/60) suggest that's not exactly a coincidence. They're not exactly equipped to fill the net at 5v5 so they really need their power play to get going.
Here are the projected lineups.
New Jersey Devils
*GTD
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Marcus Johansson - Pavel Zacha - Stefan Noesen/Jesper Bratt*
Miles Wood - Travis Zajac - Blake Coleman
Brian Boyle - Brett Seney - Drew Stafford
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Mirco Mueller - Sami Vatanen
Will Butcher - Ben Lovejoy
Keith Kinkaid
Tampa Bay (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Ondrej Palat - Steven Stamkos - Yanni Gourde
Tyler Johnson - Brayden Point - Nikita Kucherov
Alex Killorn - Anthony Cirelli - J.T. Miller
Mathieu Joseph - Cedric Paquette - Ryan Callahan
Victor Hedman - Dan Girardi
Ryan McDonagh - Erik Cernak
Braydon Coburn - Mikhail Sergachev
Louis Domingue
Puck drop is just after 7:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on MSG+, SUN, NHLN (U.S).
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey
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