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Shattenkirk wedding, Dumba signing and Montour ask compared to Skjei
July 22, 2018, 12:40 PM ET [76 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSS • Archive • CONTACT
I will get back to the "building the perfect Rangers' team" blog, as I processing some of the suggestions made by you in terms how to run the blog. Some of the debates I have are on should we list x# of players as possible first liners and have a vote or go with listing line combinations or a mixture of the two. Until then, I wanted to cover some recent Rangers' off-ice news, one non-New York signing and an exchange of arb figures.

Off-ice news:




Coach David Quinn has a long-standing relationship with Kevin Shattenkirk, as was noted substantially when Quinn was hired. Brendan Smith, who is to the right of Chris Kreider and Jimmy Vesey, looks to be in much better shape than he was a year ago. If he plays as he did after coming to New York in 2016, New York will have a top-four blueliner. The same can be said with Shattenkirk, if he fully healthy. Add in Brady Skjei, and that's likely half of your top-six.

As per @FriedgeHNIC, Matt Dumba and #mnwild avoid arbitration and agree to a five-year, $30 million contract. That AAV of $6 million is third-highest on team behind Parise/Suter for 23 yo coming off career-high 14 goals and 50 points. Dumba will earn $5.2 million in 2018-19, $7.4 million in 2019-20, $4.8 million in 2020-21, $7.4 million in 2021-22 and $5.2 million in 2022-23. He has modified no-trade protection in the final two years of the deal.




This is the key to the above: "With 4 accrued seasons under his belt, the deal buys 2 UFA years." Minnesota, seeing his growth from year-to-year, especially from year three to year four, locked up Dumba now, avoiding a potentially higher salary payout in the future. How does this apply to the Rangers? Besides the talk on the blog comments targeting Dumba the past two seasons, the comparable question is to Skjei. Now that he is signed, per CapFriendly, here are the comparables to Dumba and does Skjei belong on that list?




Skjei is four-months older but has played two fewer full NHL seasons than Dumba. Offensively, Dumba is where we hope Skjei can reach, but the jury is out on that, at least as a goal-scorer. The advanced metrics are relatively close, but Dumba has an edge on Skjei pretty much across the board offensively but I believe Skjei, despite his regression last year, could end up as a better defensive defenseman.

Another defenseman that might be a comparable is Brandon Montour. Last season was Montour's first full year in Anaheim after he played 27 games in 2016-17. He took a major step forward, moving into a top-four role and his presence allowed the Ducks to trade Sami Vatanen to get Adam Henrique. Montour is arbitration eligible and below is his ask and what the team offered:




Even if a two-year bridge deal accord is reached, Montour will still be an RFA, meaning that he remains under Anaheim control. The Ducks most certainly lowballed Montour with that offer, while his ask, as a 1+ year player was excessive. Somewhere between the two numbers is where both team land; a higher amount for two years and smaller for the one year.




A look at Montour and Skjei shows the Rangers' blueliner as slightly better offensive metrics while Montour has a mild edge defensively. With more experience, there is a fairly good chance he will surpass Skjei in the future. But Skjei's numbers are skewed by his regression last season, which partly could be explained by the defensive system used by the Rangers last season and overall issues the team had. Down the road, if Montour progresses as expected, a contract in line with what Dumba received is more than realistic and a good probability.

This is what I wrote last week. Factoring in the Dumba signing and even the Montour ask, I still think it's reasonable. We wait to see where the deal for Jacob Trouba, who asked for $7 million and Winnipeg offered four, lands (update 3pm Sunday: Trouba was awarded $5.5 mil for one year, arbitrator split the two figures down the middle). Skjei's arb date is a week from Tuesday, hopefully an accord can be reached before then like what occurred with Jimmy Vesey. He has three years before unrestricted free agency, so even if New York signs him to a two-year deal, he will still be an RFA in 2020-21, allowing a long-term accord to be reached.

If New York truly believes that Skjei will be their future #1 blueliner, then he should be locked up long-term. Cane's model predicts a one-year deal for Skjei, but if New York did ink him for six years, the AAV would be $4,582,657. To me, a deal in that range for six years is the direction I would go rather than a one- or two-year bridge contract which could cost the Rangers more down the road. Six years at anywhere under $4.85 million and I think New York comes out ahead down the road.


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