Day 2 of free agency brought a slower, more measured pace of signing as the majority of the big names had already come off the board. Of course, from a review of TSN Top-75 free agents, that list paper in comparison to years gone by, so my first sentence was a no-brainer after John Tavares and Paul Stastny signed. Monday brought James Neal (five years, $5.75 million AAV) to Calgary from Vegas and saw the Sharks re-sign Joe Thornton (one year, five million) and Tomas Hertl (four years, $5.625 AAV).
I for the most part like what Calgary has done this offseason, adding Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Derek Ryan, Austin Czarnik and Neal while losing Dougie Hamilton, Michael Ferland and Adam Fox. Neal will add back a bit of grit and physical presence lost in dealing Ferland along with goal-scoring prowess. The key will be if Lindholm can unlock the potential we have seen at times in Carolina.
A
list of the signings yesterday till early-afternoon can be seen in the chart below. The Rangers were dormant, save for a few AHL signings. This came as no shock, though New York still might be in on Anthony Duclair and possibly a few other bottom-six wingers/ depth defenseman.
For New York, yesterday’s discussion points centered (no pun intended) on Kevin Hayes and Erik Karlsson. Hayes was the main topic of Larry Brooks’ column that ran in today’s NY Post. Brooks also restarted the Karlsson chatter with his tweet during the day. Until a trade happens for either player and/or Hayes re-signs with the Rangers, expect to see both names prominently mentioned for weeks to come.
Brooks on Hayes in Tuesday’s paper:
One look at the cost of doing business Sunday reveals this truth as self-evident: If Kevin Hayes reaches the open market next July, the recently turned, 26-year-old center can expect a payday of around $30 million over five years, if not more.
So the choice confronting the Rangers and general manager Jeff Gorton over the next few weeks, if not the next few days, is whether to complete a deal with Hayes for a similar type contract or complete a deal for him with one of the varied teams that need a center around the league.
But unless Gorton could entice a projected bottom-feeder to yield its first-rounder (keep dreaming), the objective in a hypothetical Hayes trade should be to bring back a player/players of comparable NHL present and future value. And that is considerable. If Hayes wasn’t the Rangers’ best player from start to finish last season, he was sure close.
The Blueshirts need help and muscle on the wing. They have a crying need for help on the right side of the defense. The Bruins, who went all in on Tavares, could be tempted to bring No. 13 home. Would Jake DeBrusk be off-limits here?
The price for Hayes was established, if not re-established, by the marketplace. Now Gorton must decide whether to meet that market price or to market one of his very best players. The clock has already begun to tick.
We have hashed and rehashed the possible Hayes trade rationale and ramifications, but here we go again. Hayes expecting a deal in the five year, $6 mil AAV per season is more than reasonable. Beyond just what we saw Sunday, Hertl signing for four years at $5.625 per also sets the marketplace. Take a look at Hertl’s production compared to Hayes and then come back to me if you have a differing view, though I would be shocked if that’s the case. Hertl is 18 months younger but he is a winger not a center and will be a UFA after his deal, the same as Hayes if he signs long term.
For an additional look at Hayes’ numbers, here is what Brooks posted last week when comparing him to Mike Zibanejad.
They are completely different players. Zibanejad is a speed-and-skill center whose shot represents his biggest weapon. He played on the first line last year after working on the second line behind Derek Stepan the previous season during his first year on Broadway.
Hayes, who generally slows the game down while protecting the puck and buying time in an ersatz power game, has been the third-line pivot pretty much throughout his career and was used extensively in a matchup role last season.
Yet the two players’ overall production in their two years as teammates is essentially the same, with Zibanejad recording .32 goals-per-game and .66 points-per-game as opposed to Hayes’ .28 GPG and .61 PPG. Those numbers are skewed, though, by Zibanejad’s superior power-play numbers, achieved while getting twice as much man-advantage time (2:43 to 1:17) per game.
At five-on-five over the past two years, Hayes has been the superior player, recording 59 points (30-29) in 152 games to Zibanejad’s 43 points (19-24) in 128 matches. Hayes has posted 17 primary assists over the past two years to Zibanejad’s nine. Keep in mind that Hayes’ offensive zone start ratio was 40.7 and 42.7, respectively in 2016-17 and 2017-18, while Zibanejad’s was 53.8 and 53.0.
The Rangers intend to create room so that Filip Chytil has a shot at winning a top-six role. Spots are earned rather than bequeathed, but if Zibanejad, Chytil and Hayes line up 1-2-3 down the middle, then Lias Andersson’s ceiling on a rebuilding team is as a fourth-liner. That doesn’t seem to make a whole of lot of sense. Neither, really, does paying a third-line center more than $5 million per year.
I have made my views on dealing Hayes pretty clear, yet will do it again due to the current focus on him. Don’t do it. Hayes showed last year he could be a shutdown center. In addition, he proved that he could transition to scoring. (To further evidence that point, I reiterate look at the numbers for Hertl, who is classified as a scoring winger, and Hayes, then tell me I am wrong). The key now for Hayes will be to combine both aspects of his game, which I believe he has the capacity to do.
Part of the argument given for dealing Hayes is the depth at center. So let me get this straight. Two years ago, depth was a good problem to have. Last year’s lack of depth was bemoaned broadly. Now, the team has depth again and it’s a bad thing? Got it. We have no idea if Chytil and/or Andersson will be ready to assume. Full time role. Same with Brett Howden or Boo Nieves. Vladislav Namestnikov, re-signed for two years at $4 mil per Sunday, has the majority of success at wing alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. His flexibility enables New York to play Hayes at the pivot and Nam at wing, freeing up another slot for a center.
If Chytil or Andersson, my bet is on the former not the latter, is ready to earn a spot, then start him at the #3 slot and move him up as needed. But you have protection if one or both are not ready. In addition, with the expected rise in the cap and the need for centers, if Hayes is productive, do you not think you could move him? At worse, if need be, Zib could be moved, especially since many feel Chytil is similar to Zib and may be able to replace his production down the road, if a C is dealt for a W or RHD.
Cap room is not an issue. Per capfriendly.com, the Rangers have $23,725,556 in cap space with 16 (projected) roster players signed (including Namestnikov and Fredrik Claessen) and including Dan Girardi’s $3.61 buyout cap hit. The possible salaries for Hayes, Ryan Spooner and Jimmy Vesey should total at most on the $13-14 mil range, leaving $10 mil of cap room. A figure such as that is more than workable and also allows for re-signing Brady Skjei long-term if desired, rather than on a bridge deal, along with smaller deals to retain John Gilmour and Rob O’Gara while retaining the ability to take on a bad contract or two for future assets (see below).
Karlsson:
Brooks’ tweet:
David Pagnotta, The Fourth Period:
As noted above, until Karlsson is moved somewhere, tying him to the Rangers will be mentioned constantly. New York needs a first pair, right handed defenseman. Karlsson wants out of Ottawa. The Blueshirts will always be a destination point, even when rebuilding, because of the name and mere fact that the team plays in the media capital of the world. Whether or not getting Karlsson makes sense is another matter altogether.
I have
four key issues/questions related to the Rangers trading for Karlsson. To me, two and four are the most important. One is a concern as well but less than two and four. Both of those ‘issues’ impact the notion of a rebuild and awaiting for the youth drafted and acquired to blossom, though owner James Dolan has said that if a star was available, the process could be accelerated.
1) Karlsson’s surgically-repaired ankle
2) Cost for the contract will likely be prohibitive
3) How will Karlsson handle NYC
4) Asset acquisition cost
The ankle is likely healed by now, though Karlsson didn’t look like the same player who was dominant in the past and carried the team to the ECF on basically one leg. Karlsson’a price tag is probably going to be a minimum similar to what Drew Doughty received, eight years at $11 mil per. Do you want to pay a 28-year old who is almost 29 that much money for such a long span of time? We blanched to a certain extent at Ryan McDonagh, who granted has had injury woes the past few years, receiving seven years at just under $7 mil per. Now add on an extra year and $4 mil and come back to me with your view. With Henrik Lundqvist and Zib in NY, EK65 should fit in fine here. Can the same be said about Bobby Ryan, who left the area when he was younger due to family issues. Since he is linked to the trade, how will he handle being back in the area?
Last, acquisition cost. Part of the trade will include assuming at least a good portion of the four years and $7.25 mil AAV per season remaining on Ryan’s contract. Add in the 11 mil per for EK65 and there goes a big chunk if not all of your cap space. But we still need to get to the cost to acquire. But as Carp also notes, who are you surrendering in a deal? Willing to move Chytil? What about Hayes, Skjei, Howden and two first rounders? Even if so, a return such as that might not be enough for Ottawa GM Pierre Dorian and owner Eugene Melnyk. The Senators turned down a huge offer from Las Vegas, who is still the favorite to acquire Karlsson, why do we think the price has dropped even though with only a year left before EK65 moves this should be the case.
Rick Carpinello in The Athletic touches on these in his column last night in which he makes it fairly clear that EK65 isn’t coming to Broadway. Excerpts from the article are posted below. The four concerns I listed above were posed in a DM Twitter conversation with one of the readers of the blog who does have some connections inside the organization.
According to people familiar with the Rangers’ thinking, a trade for Karlsson would go against their rebuild in that they would not be willing to give up the top prospects it would take to get him, they would not be willing to take on Bobby Ryan, whose cap-hit the Senators desperately want to dump as part of a deal, and they would not be willing to extend Karlsson to a Drew Doughty-type of contract (he just re-signed with Los Angeles for eight years at $11 million per). Karlsson is signed through the coming season ($6.5 million) and an extension would not kick in until he’s 29, in 2019-20.
The Rangers, in full rebuild mode, won’t part with the deep prospect pool they’ve put together in the last 13 months, and it would be extremely unlikely the Senators would instead take restricted free agents Kevin Hayes and/or Ryan Spooner, who both can be unrestricted free agents next season depending on their arbitration cases.
Surely, Ottawa would want much more – a first-rounder and other draft picks, plus young players.
Karlsson is going to end up somewhere other than Ottawa. It just won’t be with the Rangers.
With Claesson on board, as Carp notes, he joins Brendan Smith and Gilmour (who played 13 games on his natural side and 14 on the off-side last year) and Sean Day as lefties whom coach David Quinn could shift if it becomes necessary. Similar also can be said about Skjei, who has shown the ability to play his off-side if necessary, though that’s far from ideal.
“Ideally, you want to have righties. It’s much more difficult on the pivot and on neutral-zone transition for a guy playing his off-side,” Quinn said during last week’s prospect camp. “But you don’t always live in an ideal world. If the need arises, it’s important to have guys who are comfortable on their off-side.”
As of now, Kevin Shattenkirk, returning from knee surgery, and Neal Pionk, entering his second year, are your top-two, right-handed defensemen. Tony DeAngelo will get a chance to earn a spot but he is fighting an uphill battle while Steven Kampfer is a depth d-man. Because of this, having blueliners with the ability, especially if seamless, to switch sides will be critical, at least until or if right handed defensemen are acquired.
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