|
Rangers-Canadiens: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage |
|
|
|
|
|
Rangers-Canadiens: Reading the Numbers, Looking for an Advantage
I did this the past five post-seasons, highlighting a few numbers and seeing if anything could be gleaned from them. These two teams met in the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals, but that seems like eons ago. The two teams met three times this year, with Montreal winning all three by a score of 12-7. so it will be interested to see if the numbers tell us anything we didn't already know.
Win-Loss Record
Rangers: 48-28-6 (overall), 21-16-4 (home), 27-12-2 (road)
Canadiens: 47-26-9 (overall), 24-12-5 (home), 23-14-4 (road)
The Rangers got off to a blazing hot start but then regressed, just as they did a year ago. New York warmed again for a bit earlier this calendar year, but with little to play for, as they basically were locked into a Wild Card, struggled down the stretch. The Rangers lost five of their last six games to limp into the playoffs. Montreal raced out to a lead in the Atlantic Division, but saw their hold dwindle in January and early February. Team management fired Michel Therrien, replacing him with Claude Julien on February 14. That proved to be the impetus the squad needed, as they rallied from there to hold off Ottawa to win the division Montreal won the season series 3-0, outscoring New York 12-7 in the three contests.
Goals For/Against
Rangers: 3.09-2.63 (per game)
Canadiens: 2.72-2.41
The Rangers finished third in the league in scoring despite struggling at times during the year. New York was streaky, mixing big scoring games with stretches where they were futile offensively. The Rangers relied on balanced scoring, as four players totaled 50+ points, three had 40+ and four had 34+ points. New York was led once again by Mats Zuccarello, who notched 15 goals and 44 assists, while Chris Kreider potted a career-high 28 goals and 25 assists. J.T. Miller slumped late but took a step forward with 22 goals and 34 assists while Derek Stepan added 17 and 38 and Rick Nash, despite sitting two games late, went from 15 to 23 goals. Defensively, New York actually stayed about the same, allowing 2.62 goals per game last year compared to 2.63 this season, as their defensive zone coverage issues and regression of their blueline were on full display once again. Plus, Henrik Lundqvist, after a hot start, regressed, partially impacted by facing a ridiculous number of shots from high-scoring areas and missed some time with a hip injury. Antti Raanta outplayed Lundqvist during the season, which helped New York clinch the first Wild Card spot.
Montreal finished 15th in scoring and fourth in goals against. Up front, Max Pacioretty led the way with 37 goals supported by Alexander Radulov, who had 18 goals and 36 assists in his return to the NHL. Alex Galchenyuk and Brendan Gallagher disappointed, as more was expected from them. But Paul Byron stepped up to score 22 goals and Phillip Danault ended up centering Pacioretty and Radulov. Defensively, Montreal was aided by the addition of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban and especially the return of Carey Price from his injury last season. Those two factors were a big reason for the Canadiens' improvement goal-against average.
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio
Rangers: 1.19
Canadiens: 1.19
The teams finished seventh and sixth in this category, with the Rangers falling from 1.20 and fourth a year ago and Montreal rising from 0.92 and 20th. The difference was New York scored 22 more goals at even strength but gave up 19, resulting in the similar ratios. The power plays were relatively close as were the penalty kills in terms of goals scored. At even-strength, NY outscored.
Power Play
Rangers: 20.2 percent, 47-for-233 (overall), 17.2 percent, 20-for-116 (home); 23.1 percent, 27-for-117 (road)
Canadiens: 19.6 percent, 45-for-229 (overall), 18.3 percent; 22-for-120 (home); 21.1 percent; 23-for-109 (road)
While New York had the edge on the power play, the net difference is two goals and four chances. The Rangers finished 11th in the league in terms of PP success % and 14th goals while Montreal was 13th and tied for 18th, respectively. Montreal relies on Weber, and to a lesser extent Markov, from the points with Pacioretty and Radulov on the wings.
The Rangers PP has taken a major turn for the positive the last 15 games or so. After starting the year on fire in the top-five, New York couldn't buy a PPG for long stretches. In fast, they were 1-for-40 in 15 games from Feb. 7-March 7. But New York closed strong, going 13-for-40 on the power play in their final 15 games. languishing much of the season. New York finally better adopted puck and player movement while using Kreider as a big screen in front. Zibanejad's right-handed one-timer from the left dot is a huge weapon, plus using Skjei more often has helped as well. In addition, Stepan and Zuccarello were on the half-boards and in, taking advantage of the crisper passing from side-to-side, resulting in more opportunities. New York still struggles at time to initially gain the zone cleanly and for the love of all that is holy, please don't use the drop pass back to the "rushing" d-man. Either dump it softly deep to the open wing and crash or use passing to get the zone and then move the puck quickly once in the zone to set up.
Power play units for the Rangers are:
PP1: McDonagh-Zuccarello-Kreider-Stepan-Miller
PP2: Skjei-Zuccarello-Nash-Zibanejad-Hayes
Montreal is likely to go Pacioretty-Shaw-Radulov-Markov-Weber on the first unit. The second unit is probably Galchenyuk-Plekanec-Gallagher-Petry-Beaulieu. The Canadiens could mix and match on their two power play lines. Shaw uses his big body to screen in front while Pac and Rad are the skill players along with Weber and Markov's point blasts. Julien could move Galchenyuk up and Shaw down if more skill is needed.
The Canadiens have an edge shorthanded, in terms of the ability to shut down the opponents' PP, as New York finished 19th in the league at 79.8. But the Rangers had nine shorthanded goals, spurred by Grabner, while the Canadiens had five. New York gets burned when cheating to try and get a shorthanded chance, which will kill the Rangers if it leaves Weber open at the point. The PK might be Lindberg and Fast, McDonagh and Girardi on one unit with Grabner and Hayes (or Nash and Stepan) Staal and Holden.
Penalty Kill
Rangers: 79.8 percent, 45-for-223 (overall); 76.9 percent; 24-for-104 (home); 82.3 percent; 21-for-119 (road)
Canadiens: 81.1%; 47-for-249 (overall); 85.5 percent; 18-for-124 (home); 76.8 percent, 29-for-125 (road)
The Rangers went from 26th in the league last year in terms of success rate to 19th this year. New York was better earlier in the year but struggled down the stretch, but did right themselves a bit late. Montreal was 12th last year and finished 14th this year, though only drop 0.8% in success rate. New York went from 11th last season (411:58) in shorthanded minutes to 26th this year or the fifth fewest PK time (367:53) in the league but Montreal went 21th overall last year or 10th best to 18th overall or 13th best, with almost 33 more minutes of shorthanded time than New York.
New York was 25th best in the league in killing penalties at home while Montreal was 3rd. On the road, the Rangers were 11th best while the Canadiens fell to 26th best the league. Those disparities overall and especially the home/road splits are why special teams likely will play a huge role in who wins.
Hits-Blocked Shots-Missed Shots-Giveaways-Takeaways
Rangers: 1715H-1244B-1000M-859G-647T
2016 - 2164H-1314B-939M-824G-603T
Canadiens: 1864H-1213B-988M-933G-531T
2016 - 1933H-1144B-928M-895G-496T
Last season, New York saw a drop in hits and blocked shots. This season, it was more of the same, but especially on the hits side, as the Rangers fell off more than 400 hits from 2015-16 to 2016-17. I found these numbers interesting, because New York struggled again with puck-possession, so you would have expected a spike or at least flat each number, but that wasn't the case. In addition, they only had 35 more giveaways than the prior season offset by 44 more takeaways. puck-possession skills were so poor and they had more turnovers than a bakery, there was a marked spike upwards in both blocked shots and hits. New York was seventh and fourth in hits and blocked shots a year ago; this season, they were 16th and eighth, respectively. Montreal dropped just 69 hits from a year ago, but much of the narrowing of that number came after the Canadiens acquired beef at the deadline. Overall, Montreal was 14th and 17th in hits and blocked shots last year; this season, they were 12th and 11th.
The missed shots were fairly close between the squads same with giveaways, as Montreal was fourth and the Rangers fifth in coughing up the puck, which will be something to watch in the series. But, the Rangers did a solid job in taking the puck back, finishing fourth in the league while the Canadiens were 17th. Surprisingly, the Rangers and Canadiens were pretty close with missed shots on net, with NY finishing 22nd and Mtl 18th in shots per game at 29.7 and 30.0 SOG/game.
Faceoffs
Rangers: 48.4; 2353W-25111L 22nd
2016 - 49.2; 2313W-2390L 23rd
Canadiens: 50.3; 2516W-2483L 12th
2016 - 50.2; 2621W-2586L 13th
The teams ranked 13th and 22nd in the league, both sides finishing one slot better than a year ago. New York fell from 49.2% to 48.4% while Montreal just about stayed flat. especially the Rangers, who went from 46.7 to 49.2%. In order, for the Rangers, Brandon Pirri won 57.65 of his 243 draws, though he doesn't see much playing time these days. Mika Zibanejad won 525 of his 950 draws as did Oscar Lindberg on his 575 faceoffs. Derek Stepan, who historically has struggled in the dot, did so again this year, winning 47.0% of his 1522 draws, though that was up from 46.7% last year and 44.1% two years ago. Kevin Hayes won 45.7% of 968 draws, a marked improvement from winnings just 35.9% of his 381 draws last year and 36.3% of his 681 draws two years ago. J.T. Miller saw time at center, winning just 44.0% of his 357 draws, further evidence why he is better at wing.
For Montreal, Andrew Shaw won 54.6% of his 438 draws while Torrey Mitchell was successful on 54.55 of his 752 faceoffs. Tomas Plekanec won 51.2% of his 1352 draws and Phillip Danault won 51.75 of his 1031 faceoffs. Alex Galchenyuk won just 42.7% of his 642 draws, which may be another reason why he was moved from center to wing. what this means is that the Canadiens can roll one of several players late in the game, especially in the defensive zone, as there are few bad options. This is where matchups and last changes could be key, especially in the defensive zone, as if either Stepan/Hayes or Galchenyuk are caught in their own zone, it could have a major impact on the series.
Record When Leading After 20 Minutes, 40 Minutes//Trailing After 20, 40
Rangers: 20-5-2, 27-4-0/9-10-1, 5-19-3
2016 - 25-3-3, 28-2-2/9-12-2, 4-20-2
Canadiens: 21-2-3, 26-1-3/7-17-3. 11-20-4
2016 - 23-4-0, 25-4-2/5-23-2-16-3, 4-28-0
The Rangers went from 12th in win % and tied for fourth in wins if leading after one last year down to 16th and 13th, respectively, this season. Last season, they were 12th in win % and as the same in wins if leading after two, but this year, they fell to 16th in wins and 11th in win%. New York used to be lead pipe cinch if leading after two, while they are still good, they are no longer a lock.
The Canadiens were 5th in win % and eighth in wins if leading after one last season but fell to sixth in win% while 11th in wins. They made up for that by improving in wins and win 5 when leading after two.
New York finished second in win% and and tied for sixth in wins sixth if trailing after one but fell to 13th in wins and ninth in win% if trailing after two, better on the latter two than a year ago. Montreal was 18th in win% and tied for 13th in wins if trailing after one and first in win% and wins if trailing after two, which shows their comeback ability
Record When Scoring First//Trailing First
The Rangers had the 16th best winning percentage and tied for 11th in wins if scoring first, a major drop from the prior year when they had the eighth best winning percentage and seventh most wins if scoring first. Montreal was fourth and tied for sixth in both categories, indicating that the Canadiens like to lead and do a better job maintaining it. In addition, New York was tied for 29th and Montreal was tied for 3rd in fewest losses when scoring first, showing that Montreal was markedly better in maintaining a lead than New York. The Rangers were tied for 4th while Pittsburgh was tied for 14th in wins when surrendering the first goal - separated by four wins - but the Rangers were second (.486) and Montreal tied for 13th (.368) in win percentage in those cases.
Shots/Shots Allowed
Rangers: 29.7/30.1
28.5/30.4
Mtl: 30.0/29.6
30.5/29.4
For NY, it was a slight change from the prior year. After relying on shooting percentage early in the year, the Rangers to put more shots on net but finished 22nd in that category. New York improved slightly in shots allowed per game, but that number doesn't reflect just how many of those shots came from high scoring areas. In addition, while the puck possession numbers improved, it wasn't a dramatic spike, which makes the hits and blocked shots numbers look even odder, as one would have expected more in each category as New York chased the puck. For Montreal, the numbers are pretty similar to the prior year, even with change from Subban to Weber, addition of Radulov and change from Therrien to Julien.
When the Rangers outshoot their opponent, they went 19-19-0, just 17th in wins, which is a major drop from last year, when they went 20-14-2 and significant fall off from 2014-15, when they posted a 30-12-6 mark. Montreal finished seventh at 25-12-0, a significant jump from 18-20-0 a year ago When outshot, NY went 28-9-0 up from 24-13-3 a year ago and first in the league, while Montreal went 22-13-0. What we do see is that the Rangers can play either style but doesn't have an issue when outshot while Montreal is much better when they are the aggressor.
One-Goal Game Record, Two-Goal Games, Three-Goal Games
The Rangers had the fourth best winning percentage (.590) in one-goal games, up from the 11th best winning percentage (.556) a year ago. They were just 20th (.412) this season in two-goal games down from seventh best (.600) a year ago. In addition, they had the eighth most three-goal wins and 5th (.692) in win%. Montreal was eighth (.561) up from 20th (.455) a year ago in one-goal games, 19th (.429) down from 13th (.526) a year ago in two-goal and sixth (.667) up from 22nd (.433) a year ago in three-goal games.
Overtime Record
Rangers: 5-2
Canadiens: 11-7
These numbers basically can be tossed out since no 3-on-3 in the playoffs
Penalty Minutes For/Against
Rangers: 396:02/367:53 22nd/26th
2016 - 372:31/411:58 30th/20th
Montreal: 379:04/400:47 29th/18th
2016 - 440:35/407:55 10th/21st
Last season, The Rangers had the least amount of PP TOI while the Montreal was 10th in the league. In addition, New York was 20th in shorthanded minutes while the Canadiens were 21st, as only four minutes separated the two teams. This season, New York improved to 22nd in PP TOI and 26th in SH TOI, cutting almost 44 minutes of shorthanded time off the ledger, beneficial, seeing how NY struggled shorthanded. Montreal fell to next to last in PP TOI, losing 61 minutes of power play, while shaving off seven minutes of PK time.
Infer what you will from these numbers, and once the puck drops, most of these will probably just be a nice sidebar.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»