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Landeskog to La La Land?

January 9, 2017, 5:46 PM ET [35 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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Of course, why not? On the surface, the Avalanche captain looks like a dream King -- a physical, two-way leader who plays a north-south game, but also owns world-class skill.

Landeskog boasts a career +4.22 5v5 Corsi For % Relative, best on the Avs from 2011-17 -- an outstanding figure which suggests he's a significant play driver. He's a first-choice penalty killer -- in fact, his career 55.26 4v5 Fenwick Against/60 is ninth out of 184 qualified forwards (300+ minutes)

The 24-year-old is also locked into a reasonable 5.5 million per year cap hit until 2021.

Going past why Colorado would even consider dealing the 2011 Draft's second-overall -- a season-long slump, a declining shot rate, lots of losing during his tenure -- can Los Angeles afford him?

Probably not.

According to Elliotte Friedman, the Avs are eyeing "good young defensemen or good young defensive prospects" for Landeskog or Matt Duchene.

You can assume that they're demanding at least one high-end blueliner back. So looking from LA's perspective -- Drew Doughty is too rich, while Derek Forbort, Kevin Gravel, and Brayden McNabb, as talented as they are, aren't likely considered "high-end" around the league. The same could be said about the organization's defensive prospects, besides perhaps Kale Clague, who flourished at World Juniors.

So how about Jake Muzzin or Alec Martinez?

Muzzin hasn't been as productive this season, but he's still playing big minutes, driving play, and still has the shine of being on Team Canada's World Cup roster. Martinez is having a career campaign and would be a worthy All-Star selection.

Both are signed to solid contracts -- Muzzin has a four million a year cap hit until 2020, while Martinez has the same hit until 2021.

But would a rebuilding team like Colorado want a 27-year-old Muzzin or 29-year-old Martinez?

Los Angeles has a more pressing problem in this potential swap: They can't afford to part with Muzzin or Martinez.

The strength of the Kings is their team defense -- they've won two Cups and protected a parade of goalies (like Peter Budaj) with it. Doughty, Muzzin, and Martinez form as strong a trio of defenders as you'll find in the league -- and if you trade one, you're down to two reliable blueliners. We saw how well that worked out for Los Angeles when San Jose demolished them last April with Martinez injured.

Both Forbort and McNabb have eaten big minutes with a relative amount of success -- next to Doughty -- but neither have established their top-four bona fides. Counting on either to step in immediately for Muzzin or Martinez is playing with fire.

Ultimately, an LA team that believes itself a contender would not be wise to "fix" one problem area up front by creating another on the backend.

Dean Lombardi could conceivably offer Clague, the talented but inconsistent Adrian Kempe, a first-round pick, and some short-term cap hit ballast -- I can't say if Colorado would accept, but that's about the best Los Angeles can do. This package, of course, would exacerbate the organization's already-existing issues with a relatively-barren farm system. They probably can't really afford to lose this many futures, but for a win-now philosophy, that's more palatable than parting with Muzzin or Martinez.

Another possibility is letting go impending RFA Tanner Pearson. While the 24-year-old Pearson has actually been more productive than Landeskog this year, the Swede has a more established scoring track record, a higher ceiling, and is a more dependable two-way force.

So would the Avs be intrigued by a package centered around Pearson, Clague, and a high draft pick?

They might be, but I'd guess Colorado holds onto their captain in this case or receives another offer more to their liking.

As much as Lombardi might lust for Landeskog, I don't know if he can afford him -- or even afford to trade for him.

***

As much as Dustin Brown is maligned -- yes, I know he makes first-line money for third-line production -- he's still a legitimately useful player. Brown's work here in overtime on Saturday helped set the table for Pearson's winner -- special thanks to @JZarris of Jewels from the Crown for turning me on to this shift:



First, Brown hampers Ryan Suter's attempt to break out, in effect short circuiting Minnesota's 3v3 attack. Then he takes on the speedy Jason Zucker, who is trying to get to Budaj, cutting off the Minnesota skater with his own speed and reach. The ex-Los Angeles captain then ties Zucker up behind the net, allowing Muzzin to swoop in and advance the puck to Anze Kopitar.

In my favorite play of this sequence, Brown subtly and legally "picks" Zucker, preventing the forechecking Wild winger from taking a clear lane to harass Kopitar. This allows the current LA captain the chance to survey his options. He slips it to Brown, who moves it up to Muzzin.

When Muzzin gains the zone, all the Kings change, except Kopitar. Pearson and Martinez jump off the bench, and seconds later, the winning trio takes it in OT.

Anyway, back to Brown -- this was an excellent showcase of his still-present skating chops and hockey smarts.

***

Saturday's victory also marks the first time this season that the Kings have come back from a two-goal deficit. For a goal-starved team, it's a good sign that somebody else who Los Angeles is depending on to score -- besides Pearson or Jeff Carter -- contributed. Of course, the hot hand couldn't help but be involved:



***

Stats as of 1/8/17, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts.

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