This year, we saw the selection of the highest percentage of American born players in NHL Entry Draft history. Some 30% of all draftees were American born players, and it was an especially good year for the USA National Team Development Program, led off with a former player(Patrick Kane) and current one (James vanRiemsdyk) in the first two spots in the draft.
It wasn't all that long ago that the Team USA program took a lot of heat for all the money it was spending on the development program, which sees the junior team competing all season long both domestically and internationally.
It took awhile for the results to start showing, both in terms of major international tournament performances and in terms of boosting development of top-grade prospects. Over the last few years, though, it has really started to pay off.
Another point: Nowadays we are seeing a much wider mixture of young players from around the USA. It wasn't all that long ago that you could pretty much assume any American player of consequence was either from Minnesota or New England.
This was also a huge year for the USHL and tier-II junior leagues in Canada (especially the BCHL) and US high school leagues. These once-maligned feeder leagues for the NCAA and CHL now produce a much higher grade of prospect than they used to. Of course, not everyone is a Kyle Turris, but there's a lot of quality and depth.
It's no coincidence that NHL teams have placed ever increasing emphasis on NCAA college-bound (or already in college) players. The Devils have used that drafting approach for years, and St. Louis has had good recent results with it, just to name two teams.
The reasons for the added focus are simple. First, with European prospects now having the same two-year signing window as CHLers, the longer signing window for NCAA-affiliated prospects has become attractive. Secondly, while most of these players still lack polish, they now have a good foundation upon which to build.
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As a Delaware Valley resident, it's gratifying to see local players starting to filter into the NHL Draft with ever-increasing frequency and at higher and higher levels.
It's also nice to know that a development program that was originally based out of Huntingdon Valley -- the EastCoast Selects program, co-founded by Travis Howe, who is Mark's son and Gordie's grandson -- has become one of the top-tier talent producers for USA Hockey, the CHL, the NCAA and now the NHL. The program is now bi-coastal (and has been renamed East Coast-West Coast Selects) and includes players from not only around the U.S. and Canada but also overseas.
Among this year's draft class, there were four first rounders (Sam Gagner, Logan Couture, Kevin Shattenkirk and Nick Petrecki), a second round pick (Colby Cohen) and a third-rounder (Dale Mitchell) who spent some of their formative hockey development years as members of the program. At least as many 2008 eligibles have roots in the program as well.
While the program's home base has moved to Michigan, it still has close ties to my area, and I think that's fantastic.
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In early December of 2006, Flyers European scout Inge Hammarström gave an
interview (see p. 12)
to the IIHF Ice Times in which he made some pointed comments about scouting for talent versus scouting for size.
Looks like the mid-to-late 1990s era scouting edict from the Flyers is back with a vengeance: "Go big whenever possible...and gritty, too. Oh, and if he's also skilled, that's all the better."
I think they got all three attributes in first-round pick James vanRiemsdyk. The Flyers have done pretty well in the first round, and there's every reason to believe they were extra careful with this pick before electing to bypass Kyle Turris.
But I'm skeptical of this year's second and third round picks. The reason: the history with these types of picks isn't on the Flyers side and the guys they chose this year fit a second and third round profile that never panned out for them in the last decade.
I have faith in Paul Holmgren based on his trades as a GM. But he has had a major hand in Flyers' scouting and drafting since the mid-1990s and whenever they've "gone big-n-gritty" in rounds two and three, it hasn't paid off.
My fear is that the organization has taken Anaheim's Cup victory as a type of vindication for a post-round one drafting approach the Flyers used extensively in the mid-1990s drafts, with virtually zero to show for it.
From 1995 to 1999 the Flyers routinely looked for big-framed role playing types (4th-to-6th defensemen, 9th to 12th forwards) in the second and/or third rounds. They came up empty in every case, unless you want to count a few forgettable NHL cups of coffee for Pat Kavanagh (14 NHL games, eight with the Flyers during his second stint in the organization).
Maybe Garrett Klotz won't be the next Chester Gallant (an OHL plumber with above-average fighting skill the Flyers took in the second round in '96 and never signed, because he lacked pro skills).
Maybe Kevin Marshall will have a distinguished NHL career as a defensive D. He's a little bit smaller than some of big guys the Flyers chose in the second round, but otherwise fits much the same profile.
The Flyers have said he's not only physical, "he's pretty good with the puck." But several scouting reports from other sources questioned his puckhandling skills. In today's game, that's virtually a must-have attribute.
I hope the Flyers scouts were right. I'm rooting for Marshall to help erase the memory of Shane Kenny (a big defenseman who ate his way out of a pro career), Kris Mallette (a bruising, low-skilled defenseman who was never signed and bounced around the lower minor leagues), Ian Forbes (a towering, skinny project hitting defenseman who couldn't stick at the AHL level), Jason Beckett (a 6-3, 215 pound hitting type who lacked NHL skating and decision-making ability and bounced around the AHL).
But there's enough negative history of Homer and company going for this type of player in rounds two and three to have some concern. When the Flyers have done this, they've come up with minor leaguers (at most). Other teams with deeper farm systems have chosen higher-upside players with equal or higher risk who went on to become solid NHL contributors.
Therefore, it's fair to be skeptical of the Marshall and Klotz picks until they prove themselves. History doesn't always indicate the future, but it does lay down some odds of success relative to other teams' selections.
The
only Flyers picks of the role-player/enforcer type since 1995 who have dressed in the NHL for the Flyers have been a sprinking of late rounders: Todd Fedoruk (a seventh round pick in '97), Jesse Boulerice (a fifth rounder in '96) and Triston Grant (9th rounder in 2004). Boulerice played all of three games as a Flyer before getting traded to Carolina. Grant played in 8 games for the Flyers this past season.
Francis Belanger, an overager in the 5th round of the 1998 draft, got into 10 games with the Canadiens after the Flyers let him go so he could deal with substance abuse issues.
I have no problem with looking for a few role players in the draft, but if you are going to bypass skill for size, at least a few of the big guys you pick had better be able to play at the NHL level.
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Lots of teams-- not just the Flyers-- are trying to follow the "Anaheim model" now that the Ducks won the Cup.
Yes, Anaheim had a big, mostly North American team. Yes, they were physical and wore teams down.
But to me, here's the real takeaway lesson: Anaheim also just so happened to have a pair of Norris Trophy caliber defensemen in the lineup. They just so happened to have a #3 defenseman who would be the #2 guy on most other teams. They had pretty solid goaltending. They had one of the game's truly great offensive players of his era in Teemu Selänne. And they had underrated skill throughout their top six forwards.
Take Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermayer out of the equation and keep the rest in place. Anaheim probably isn't a Cup finalist, much less the winner.
But if you changed around some of the other surrounding pieces (enough so there is still chemistry on the lines) and still have the crux of great D, good goaltending and an underrated top-six group of forwards, you could STILL build a Cup winner.
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Some other assorted notes and observations:
* The way Flyers fifth-round selection Mario Kempe (a Modo Hockey product now playing in the Quebec League)
fearlessly crashes the net and explodes with bursts of speed reminds me a little of a smaller, less consistent version of the young Mikael Renberg.
* Detroit may have gotten themselves a future Samuel Påhlsson in Frölunda junior center and Swedish national Under-18 player Joakim Andersson, courtesy of European scout Håkan Andersson (no relation). The captain of Frölunda's champion junior squad, Andersson is already a mature defensive center and may even have a little more offensive upside than Påhlsson. An astute, safe 3rd round pick.
* Swedish goalie and
Idol contestant Mark Owuya (AKA Mark in da Park) learned a hard lesson from this Draft. NHL team personnel, by and large are a conservative lot. His cockiness and hip-hop sensibilities apparently didn't go over well to teams at the Draft Combine. However, he may be selected next year. Joel Gistedt (taken by Phoenix 36th overall) wasn't selected last year. Also unselected were Linköping junior goalie Christian Engstrand and hulking Brynäs Gävle netminder Anders Lindbäck, both whom I think will ultimately be picked in a future NHL draft and could go ahead of Owuya.
* Speaking of Swedes and Swedish, a lot Scandic fans got a chuckle out of the name of Montreal second-round pick PK Subban. In Swedish, subban means "the bitch." By the way, his first name is a bit ironic, because PK is a strictly offensive defenseman whose defensive deficiencies knocked him down to being a mid-second round pick.
* Colby Cohen is still trying to live down the "bad attitude" rap that was placed on him during his time with the US NTDP. That, as much as his sometimes questionable defensive decision making, pushed him down to the second round.
* I think Justin Vaive, taken 92nd overall (first pick of 4th round-- originally Philadelphia's pick) by Anaheim could be one of the surprise late bloomers of the draft. His stats may not look like much but the physical left winger came on late in the season and was very good at the Under-18 Worlds, even chipping in some clutch offense. Although he went higher than his rankings, this is one of the middle round picks I can see panning out.
* Columbus took a homerun swing in the 4th round by going for Maxim Mayorov with the 94th overall pick. Several draft projections had him as a top-15 pick.
* There's no doubt in my mind that Edmonton took Linus Omark in the fourth round based primarily upon the Canada-Sweden game that opened the WJC in Leksand. The pint-sized 1987-born puckhandling wizard from Luleå HF was by far Sweden's best player in that game and showed a feisty, competitive streak. The WJC was also probably why San Jose's North American scouts got on board with their European scouts in recommending the selection of Patrik Zachrisson in the 6th round. Originally a Frölunda junior product (yet another one), he played in the Swedish minor leagues for Rögle BK this season and acquitted himself very well.
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