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Dominance at lower hockey levels: vanRiemsdyk, LeClair, Knuble, and Nash |
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One statistical truth has never changed across the history of the NHL Draft. A forward who dominates offensively at hockey's lower levels is by no means guaranteed to be a dominant NHL player. But a forward who does not dominate against lower tier competition rarely makes an offensive impact in the NHL regardless of his speed, size or strength. The dominance needn't come prior to the player's NHL draft year, but obviously the sooner it does, the better.
James vanRiemsdyk, the second overall pick in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, has a lot of outstanding attributes on the ice. One area that has been questioned is his consistency in finishing off plays around the net. Thus far, he has been streaky in that regard, which is hardly unusual for such a young player.
The good news is that he's growing more and more confident offensively each year, and had a breakthrough year for the Team USA NTDP Under-18 squad this year, scoring 33 goals and 63 points in 42 games. He capped that off with an excellent performance at the Under-18 World Championships, especially in the medal round.
A year ago, in 69 games split between the Under-17 (55 games) and Under-18 (14 games) squads, he had 27 goals and 46 points. The one-year progress is remarkable, given that he averaged less than a point-per-game (26 goals, 42 points) even when playing at the U-17 level for the NTDP. At the time, he was thought to be a better passer than shooter. The finishing touch started to catch up this year.
How does vanRiemsdyk's production so far match up to the players against whom he is most often compared: John LeClair, Rick Nash and Mike Knuble?
He's a little bit off their pre-NHL paces but with another year of similar progress at University of New Hampshire, would be in the same neighborhood.
LeClair, as a high school senior, had 44 goals and 84 points in 23 games. Mind you, this is against lower overall competition than vanRiemsdyk faced with the NTDP. At the college ranks for University of Vermont, he became close to a goal-per-game player (35 goals and 61 points in 40 games over his last two seasons).
Knuble, in his last year of high school hockey, scored 63 goals and 103 points in 29 games. More importantly, at the University of Michigan, he became a dominant college hockey player. In his last two seasons in one of NCAA hockey's top programs, he scored a combined 70 goals and 118 points in 75 games.
Nash, prior to joining the London Knights, had 61 goals and 115 points in 34 GTHL games for Toronto (against a better level of competition than vanRiemsdyk faced in New Jersey at the same age). In his two OHL seasons, Nash had 63 goals and 138 points in 112 games.
There's no reason to doubt that vanRiemdyk, with continued hard work and development, can't become a 30-goal NHL scorer like Knuble (he's regarded as a better skater and puckhandler than Knuble at the same age but his shot is a bit behind) or a 30-to-40 goal man like Nash has become. Can he become a 50+ goal scorer like LeClair in his Legion of Doom prime?
It's possible, but to do so, he'd need not only to develop the type of balance and strength LeClair had his prime, he'd also have to play with a top-notch NHL center as LeClair was fortunate enough to do in his years with Eric Lindros.
I would say 50+ goals would be a lot to ask. Unlike LeClair, who had a 100 MPH rocket of a slapshot and an incredible knack for deflections, rebound goals and crease scramble jam-ins, vanRiemsdyk doesn't seem to have quite the same arsenal at his disposal.
But if he's ultimately a 30+ goal performer who adds a strong forechecking and above-average two-way presence to the Flyers, I don't think Flyers fans can complain about the pick.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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