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Canes "Myth-Busters" and the Peanut Gallery |
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Starting today, we are going to embark on a five-part series. Every third-day for the next two weeks, I am going to be running series evaluating the Canes through their first 25 games. The breakdown will be something along the lines of:
Part I—“Myth Busters” and the Peanut Gallery
Part II—The Two Actual Biggest Problems
Part III—The Expendables, Roster Analysis and Expansion Implications
Part IV—The Solution—How to Fix the Canes
Part V—Recap and Final Thoughts
So, let’s begin:
Almost two weeks ago, the Canes had their five-game winning streak snapped by Montreal in a tough 2-1 battle—this loss started a four-game trend for Ward as the Canes were either tied or leading in the third and lost. Immediately following the Montreal game, my Twitter feed was filled with negative Caniac chatter surrounding Cam’s inability to win, as well as questioning his ability to be a starter in the NHL. The flood gates opened following the loss to the Rangers on November 29th and have been pretty consistent up through this Sunday—the most common “sentiments” are along these lines:
1: Cam Ward can’t win close games or in the third period.
2: Cam Ward costs the Canes wins and is the main reason.
3: Cam Ward isn’t good enough to start anywhere in the NHL.
4: The Hurricanes main problem and is Cam Ward.
5: The Canes need to trade for a “reliable” starting goaltender and they immediately become a playoff potential team.
Most of these sentiments spurn from the past few seasons in which Ward under-performed based on his contract value—however, it is important to note his injury history and lack of a “half-decent” team played a prominent role during that span. Unfortunately, when you’re getting paid, people don’t care about the details—they just want the paid results, no excuses.
When the Canes decided to re-sign Ward this summer, Caniacs groaned at the thought of seeing him on a consistent basis. Coach Peters heard the peanut gallery and gave Eddie Lack a shot early—however, he failed miserably and Ward was pushed back into action. The Caniac’s confirmation bias was further confirmed three games into the season and they were basking and gloating with their “I told ya so” banter. Ward held a 0-2-1 record with a .848 save percentage and 4.03 G.A.A. It was fair at that point in the season to believe all five of the above sentiments were plausible, as Ward undeniably cost the Canes some potential wins.
However, the emergence of that chatter these past two weeks is a gross over-simplification to the Canes inability to win. To be blunt, the hyper-sensitivity focused on the few and far between errors Ward has made since November 1st are relatively comical actually—he has come under such a spot-light that one could say the Caniac’s are holding a higher scrutiny for Ward than the notorious “goalie killing” fan-base in Philadelphia. For Ward, one blunder is enough to sour a Caniac’s memory of highlight reels saves. But don’t take my word regarding the hyper-sensitivity focused on the rare fluke/soft Ward goals since November—let’s look at some statistics.
Overall, the Canes as a team currently rank 11th in goals allowed per game with 2.52—that is taking into account Eddie Lack’s and Michael Leighton’s significantly worse statistics too. In retrospect, the Canes are 27th for goals scored per game with 2.28.
Dating back to November 1st—Ward is 7-4-3 with a .943 save percentage (2nd best) and 1.55 G.A.A. (1st) of goalies who have 10+ starts. He started 14 of the past 17 games; only 4 other NHL goalies have logged more minutes than him in that time frame. In fact, Ward’s next start will make him the most used goalie minute wise at 911, surpassing Rask who has 15 starts (pending he plays the full 60 and based on today’s statistics). To say that Ward is not capable of being a starter when he is currently the most heavily utilized since November 1st is just asinine at best.
Furthermore, Ward is 6th for both even-strength shots against at 334 and even-strength saves with 313; he is 9th for even-strength save percentage at .937. Most impressive, is the fact that in those 14 games, Ward has only allowed 22 total goals (21 even-strength).What is even more absurd, is I know at least three of those goals came with an opposing player laying on Ward or deflected off his own teammate and into the net. Building on that, is his .980 save percentage while facing the opponents PP is 1st in the NHL and has seen him only surrender one goal on 51 shots.
In fact, looking at the breakdown of his past 14 games, he has only surrendered more than 2 goals twice. Furthermore, in those 12 games of two or less goals, Ward went 7-2-3 and helped the Canes earn 17 of a potential 24 point. Currently, to blame Ward for the majority of the Canes struggle and inability to win is irresponsible.
The critics will say, well you are neglecting his five starts prior to November 1st—ok, sure—let’s take a look: When looking at the overall statistics—Ward is 8th with G.A.A. with a 2.09 and 13th in Save Percentage with a .924 and 2nd in PP save percentage with a .914. At the conclusion of his next start, he will be the 5th most utilized goalie this season with TOI at 1208 minutes and 20 starts—trailing only Talbot, Jones, Budaj and Bobrovsky.
He is 7th with his Quality Start Percentage of .632% and also 7th in the league with a total of 12 quality starts—one more than Henrik Lundqvist and two more than Holtby (both also have 19 starts). The critics will chime in, “well he must’ve played weak competition.”
Really, has he now? According to Hockey Reference, the Canes Strength of Schedule (SOS) is currently first in the NHL at .16 and only Boston and the Islanders have above a .10—in fact, Minnesota has faced the easiest NHL schedule and is at a –.24, with Nashville being the next closest team at –.17 and Edmonton close behind at –.15. I’m sure you’ll note that the all three of their starting goalies this year range in the top echelons of most significant goaltender statistics. The Canes SOS should tell you how impressive the numbers Ward has put up.
If you still can’t tell how drastically different and significant he is to the Canes, let’s look at this: In his first five starts, Ward allowed 20 goals, as opposed to 22 in his past 14 starts. To take it one step further, Ward’s G.A.A., SP, and QS % are the best they have ever been compared to his career statistics for his first 11-seasons in the NHL—Better than both the 2008-09 and 2010-11 seasons when he was in the Vezina conversation and finished 7th.
While it is unknown if Ward can maintain his consistency and may potentially regress statistically some, that currently has not been the issue or recent trend. Regardless, for goalie who was sitting second-to last in almost every relevant NHL statistics beating only to his counter-partner Lack on October 28th, I’d say being top ten in almost every major category is an impressive feat, especially given the toughest SOS. Presently, to say he is why the Canes lose or to believe him as the biggest “problem” is just amusing.
Thanks for reading Part I and I hope you will join us on Thursday for Part II: “The Actual Two Biggest Problems Facing the Canes.”
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • 
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