One question that seems to pop up frequently is how much value the Chicago Blackhawks or Philadelphia Flyers could get by trading down from the first or second pick of the draft.
In a year like this, where there is no consensus superstar at the top of the draft, the intrinsic trade value of a draft pick is measured in other draft picks, not established players. That's assuming the pick is not swapped as part of a larger trade.
In the NFL, teams use a "point scale" to determine the trade value of swapping picks. While the NHL equivalent is not exactly the same, the football draft version is a good frame of reference.
NFL draft pick trading formula
Under this model, the ideal trading partner for Chicago would be Phoenix. A swap of the first overall pick (worth 3,000 points) would be of precisely equal value to Phoenix's third (worth 2,200 points) and 21st picks (worth 800 points).
Meanwhile, the best fit for Philadelphia would be trading the #2 pick to Edmonton for the #6 and #15. On the NFL scale, the Flyers pick is "worth" 2,600 and Edmonton's two picks a combined 2,650 (1,600 for the #6 and 1,050 for the #15).
What would be the prospect value of trading down this year? By giving up the chance to select whomever they like most among Patrick Kane, Kyle Turris James vanRiemsdyk or Jakub Voracek (who may still be in the running), the Hawks would still be assured that two of these players would still be on the board and also be in position to take one of several promising young defensemen (among others Jon Blum or Kevin Shattenkirk) or some of the better two-way players in the draft (Joakim Andersson, Brandon Sutter, perhaps Logan MacMillan).
For the price of giving up the second pick of the draft, Philadelphia may be able to select Karl Alzner (or perhaps Alexei Cherepanov if he drops out of the top five) with the sixth pick, a player like playmaking center Lars Eller at 15th spot and still have the #23 pick acquired from Nashville in the Peter Forsberg trade to draft a forward with some finish (Brett MacLean, for instance) or a quality young defenseman such as Ryan McDonagh.
That might work out better overall for the Hawks and Flyers in terms of total return on this year's draft. Depending on how badly Phoenix and Edmonton want to be assured of their top-rated prospect, it also could worth the cost of conceding a mid-to-late first rounder in a hard-to-read draft class.
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Today, NHL.com is featuring an article I wrote on potential sleeper picks in this year's draft. I broke the players down in the following categories-- 1) youngsters and overagers, 2) raw power forwards and big defensemen, 3) undersized players, 4) steady defensive players and 5) homerun-or-bust picks.
I couldn't possibly list every draft-eligible player who fits into one of those categories. The article is just intended as an overview of some names to watch for in the third round and beyond.
2007 Draft Class Features Sleeper Possibilities Galore 
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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