With a break in the Stanley Cup Finals until the scene shifts to Ottawa on Saturday, I thought I'd roll out the second in the series of mock drafts. As with the first one, these scenarios do not necessarily reflect any team's intentions. It's just a fun exercise to create conversation and constructive debate.

Next up in the series will be the Montreal Canadiens.

St. Louis Blues system analysis


The Blues may have missed the playoffs for the last two seasons (after a 25-year run of reaching postseason play) but within a few years, they may be the prototype for rebuilding a franchise from within.

In addition to boasting a potential franchise defenseman in Erik Johnson, St. Louis has assembled a core of young players who are already contributing at the NHL level (Lee Stempniak, Jay McClement, David Backes).

Former first round pick Christian Bäckman has finally established himself as a dependable NHL defenseman while another first-rounder, Barret Jackman, is coming off an extremely strong campaign for Andy Murray. The Blues have also astutely picked up former first-rounders from other organizations -- such as Jeff Woywitka-- and found roles for them on their NHL club.

At the AHL level, the Blues have a lot of youth on Peoria, but still managed to post a winning record this season. Players like defenseman Roman Polak, goaltender Marek Schwarz and forward Yan Stastny all have ability to contribute at the NHL level.

Assistant GM Jarmo Kekäläinen is a believer in drafting character players from proven hockey development programs and making use of U.S. college players. Many of the Blues top prospects, such as hustling, playmaking North Dakota center T.J. Oshie and University of Maine goalie Ben Bishop are developing at the NCAA level.

The Blues have also been at the forefront of the move toward signing European prospects and allowing them to continue their development, if so desired, in their home leagues.

In particular, the Blues have mined quite a few NHL-caliber prospects from Sweden, ranging from center Patrik Berglund (coming off a strong Allsvenskan season at the age of 18) to center Carl Söderberg (now a proven young veteran of 21, coming off a very solid season for a weak Malmö Redhawks team in Sweden before suffering a season-ending eye injury), promishing 19-year-old Linköping defenseman Jonas Junland (who impressed at the WJC) and physical 20-year-old Björklöven defenseman Alexander Hellström (who played in the WJC and appears to be ready to step up a level from Allsvenskan).

Nineteen year old Czech winger Tomas Kana, selected in the 2nd round of last year's draft, established himself as a regular for HC Vitkovice this year, scoring a respectable nine goals and seven assists (keep in mind that the Czech Extraliga only awards primary assists). He was one of the bright spots for a mediocre Czech team at the WJC in Sweden.

Over in Russia, 20-year-old Avangard Omsk defenseman Nikita Nikitin had a strong year and after another year or two in the RSL could be an NHL starter. Twenty-one year old winger Nikolai Lemtyugov had a productive campaign for Severstal Cherepovets as did 23-year-old center Dmitri Semin. Twenty-two year old goaltender Konstantin Barulin is one of the few above-average goaltenders the Russian system has produced in recent years, and Barulin is one of several promising goaltending prospects in the Blues' system.

St. Louis, in fact, has added yet another European goaltender to the mix. Unable to sign HC Davos/Swiss national team keeper Jonas Hiller after the World Championships, the Blues have reportedly inked Jokerit Helsinki goalie Juuso Riksman to a contract. Riksman originally came up through the HIFK Helsinki system (where Kekäläinen built a championship team as general manager) before heading to Sweden to play for Modo Hockey Örnsköldsvik.

This past year, the 29-year-old has a very strong season for Jokerit and carried a sub 1.00 goals against average into the SM-Liiga finals before Jokerit was swept by a more talented Kärpät Oulu club. He let in a couple of iffy goals in the final game.

The one area where the Blues lack a bit in terms of system depth is pure scoring wingers with the potential to consistently put the puck in the net at the NHL leve. Fortunately for St. Louis, this year's draft crop is deeper at forward than defense or goaltending, so St. Louis can potentially take a best-available-player approach and still beef up the system along the wings.

Nevertheless, two-way play is where the organization places its strongest emphasis with prospects which is why they haven't signed offensive prospects such as winger Juhamatti Aaltonen (who failed to take the next step offensively as well as defensively for Finnish champion Kärpät Oulu this season).

With Kekäläinen steering the draft and Murray behind the bench, I expect that approach to stay consistent.

***

St. Louis has three picks in the first round of the 2007 Entry Draft: the 9th overall selection (their own pick), the 24th overall selection (originally Atlanta's pick) and the 26th pick (originally New Jersey's pick).

1st round (9th overall)

After the first six picks of this draft -- likely some combination of Patrick Kane, Kyle Turris, James vanRiemsdyk, Alexei Cherepanov, Jakub Voracek and Karl Alzner -- the draft field is wide open.

If Sam Gagner slips a couple spots to the 9th position, he would be my number one target for St. Louis by a wide margin.

Gagner is a mature, level-headed kid who seems perfectly suited to an Andy Murray team. He skates well, plays all three zones, plays disciplined hockey and keeps his feet moving. He safely projects as a solid NHL second-liner, but could develop into a first-line caliber player.

More likely than not, however, Gagner will go no later than about seventh or eighth overall. The Blues may be looking at a field of players consisting of forwards Angelo Esposito, Zack Hamill, some of the higher-rated European forwards (Mikael Backlund, Lars Eller, Maxim Mayorov), perhaps David Perron or Logan Couture and defensemen Keaton Ellerby, Kevin Shattenkirk and Jonathon Blum.

My personal 9th-spot drafting preferences go a little bit against the grain of the common-wisdom rankings: 1) Esposito, 2) Perron, 3) Eller, 4) Mayorov, 5) Hamill, 6) Blum 7)Shattenkirk, 8) Backlund, 9) Ellerby, 10) Couture.

Now let me explain my reasoning, which I'm sure many will disagree with (but that's half the fun of this exercise).

I have no idea where the Blues stand on Esposito, but the nine-spot seems to be a reasonable place to grab someone who was projected as the first overall pick as late as November of last year.

Those who have watched him play a lot -- at least a significant percentage -- refute the often-repeated criticisms that Esposito is lazy, selfish or has a bad attitude. The fact that he was chosen to captain Canada at the U18 Worlds lends credence to their contention that the complaints are overblown.

On the other hand, there is no denying the fact that Esposito took a step backwards in his development this season. Without Alexander Radulov, his overall production was down, although his assists-per-game ratio only declined slightly. In terms of goal-scoring, he seemed to play a little too much on the perimeter in both the Q and the U18s.

While the former figure skater is as smooth as they come on his skates, he can glide too much when he has the puck (one of the problems that prevented Alexandre Daigle from translating his speed into prolific NHL scoring).

Espo also has work to do defensively. That, more than any other reason, is why he was one of the first cuts by Craig Hartsburg from Canada's WJC roster this year. He didn't show himself to a be enough of a complete player.

If Gagner is gone and the Blues do not take Esposito, the field really becomes wide open. Hamill has the character the Blues value and showed his offensive ability this year in leading the WHL in scoring.

On the flip side, being undersized and half-stride slow puts two strikes against a player going in the top-10. While he's taken some criticism for not battling in traffic, he GM with Everett, Doug Soetart, vehemently disputes the idea Hamill is a perimeter player. Drafting ninth overall, however, I'd still be a little leery of the speed/size questions.

Right winger Perron could be this year's version of Philadelphia prospect Claude Giroux-- an undersized player who slipped through the cracks of the Quebec League draft to make a name for himself. He knows how to find the seams in the defense and has a quick, accurate shot. He is also very good in one-on-situations against junior-caliber defensemen.

But is he a top 10 pick, given that he needs to fill out considerably and round out his overall game to be an effective NHLer? That's why some projections have him as borderline top 10 while others have him as low as the second round. Comparing upside versus upside, I'd easily take Esposito over Perron. Hamill vs. Perron is a tougher call.

The majority give the nod to Hamill, who put up more points in a more physical and defensive league. But my hunch (and that's all it really is) is that Perron will eventually catch and surpass Hamill as a pro.

I don't see Logan Couture going in the top 10 because, as one Eastern Conference scout put it, "he thinks the game like an NHLer but he skates like an AHLer." He's not going to score a lot, but his main value is as a playmaker. Couture can finish in close, but won't overpower goalies. He's more likely to dish to an open man, and finds pinching D-men well. At the U18s, he got off to good start with linemate Kyle Turris, but faded as the tournament went along. Taking him 9th overall is a tad too conservative for my liking.

Same thing goes for Mikael Backlund. I wouldn't hesitate for a moment to draft the center in the mid- to late first round, but top 10 seems a bit too early. Despite his strong showing at the U18s, which redeemed an injury-plagued season, Backlund didn't show much creativity or offensive punch at the Allsvenskan level. He'll need at least one more season at that level and then will realistically need about two seasons to get his feet under him at the Elitserien level. He is a smooth skate, has two-way potential and decent size.

Maxim Mayorov reportedly has an upside closer to what you'd look for in a top-10 pick but also carries the risks of having yet to play in the RSL, and also having not played in the U18s. While he didn't tear up the Vysshaya (top minor league) level in Russia this season as a 17-year-old, that in and of itself is not concerning. He is said to have well above-average offensive and skating skills.

Many of the Blues' other recent Russian picks have developed nicely. Depending on the input from my European scouts, he could be one of the players in the mix if they believe strongly enough in his potential. The lack of a transfer agreement wouldn't especially concern me.

If and when he's NHL ready, I'd do what I had to do to get him over and signed. When push comes to shove, the Russian teams are unable to stop players who want to leave from leaving; even if it means jumping a contract and even assuming the employee resignation loophole in Russian law is closed. Besides, there's no one you'll be drafting this year who is likely to step right into the NHL anyway.

However, those who have been following my draft blogs know I'm a big believer in the potential of Lars Eller, and I would personally lean toward him over Mayorov (if only because I've obtained first-hand assessments of Eller and none on Mayorov). The Hockey News missed the boat badly on him, in my opinion, rating him 35th and calling him a project.

According to virtually everyone who's seen him play-- including his coach, Jens Gustavsson-- Eller has the potential to be a complete NHL player with above average playmaking ability and speed.

He might be a little bit of an off-the-board pick this high in the draft, but if I can't get Gagner and my scouting brain-trust shies away from Esposito, I would gladly roll the dice on Eller, understanding that I'll need to wait several seasons on him (perhaps loaning him back to Frölunda or another European club if necessary).

If he's slated for Allsvenskan rather than Elitserien next year, he may also be a candidate to take the same post-draft CHL path that fellow Frölunda players (and fellow Danes) Morten Madsen and Kirill Starkov as well as Frölunda's Robin Figren have taken.

Moving from center/winger Eller to defenseman Ellerby -- in Sweden or Denmark, choosing between Eller or Ellerby would be the choice of "Eller eller Ellerby" -- you find yourself with a dilemma similar to the Angelo Esposito quandry. Do you draft on physical potential or do you go by performance?

Here's my take on Ellerby. If he makes it in the NHL as a top 3 defenseman, it could take five pro seasons, some of which could be pretty rocky. He has the makings of a player who, if he blossoms, it could be with his second or even third organization.

He also could a Michel Petit or Karl Dykhuis kind of first-rounder who teases you for years and years in the NHL with short stretches of good play but mostly drives his coaches and GMs nuts with his inconsistency.

I look at this way: While Kamloops is not as good a team as it was in its glory years, it was still a playoff team. I'd be concerned that Ellerby had his share of defensive problems all year. I'd be concerned that he was a healthy scratch for a March game against Calgary. I'd be concerned that for all his physical tools, he hasn't shown much of an offensive game yet, either.

Ellerby won the hardest shot competition before the CHL Top Prospects Game. That's nice, but keep in mind that Chris Therien won a Philadelphia Flyers hardest shot competition (with a 100-plus mile per hour blast) and past players such one-time Devils first-rounder Corey Foster also had rocket shots from the point. Unless you get the shot off quickly enough and -- just as importantly -- get it on net, the velocity means little.

On the flip side, Ellerby can finish his checks with authority. And keep in mind that he had a late growth spurt which took him from about 5-foot-9 as a 15-year-old to a towering 6-foot-4 as an 18-year-old. It stands to reason that he's going to take time to adjust, even at the junior level.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Shattenkirk is a smallish, offensive-minded defenseman. Until his outstanding U18 tournament for silver-medalist Team USA (which he captained), he was starting to slip in many projections. I like the fact that he's going to play for a proven NHL player-producing college program like Boston University. I like his speed, his shot from the point and his ability to join the rush. While he's been knocked for his defensive consistency, so has Ellerby. He'll never be a hitter.

Frankly, I don't see Shattenkirk as any more of a risk than Ellerby--and they are risks for different reasons-- plus there's more proven offensive ability and a longer evaluation window because of the NCAA vs. CHL signing rules under the collective bargaining agreement. He'd also be AHL-eligible sooner than Ellerby if he elected to turn pro.

Jonathon Blum, to me, is the middle ground between Ellerby and Shattenkirk. He is the best of the three defensively, skates well and has demonstrated offensive potential with Vancouver. The main question mark about him is his skinny frame. What if he never fills out much beyond his current (borderline) 6-foot, 160-pound size? Well, there have plenty of solid NHL defensemen who have been slightly built. Even if he makes it to only 175 to 180 pounds, he can be effective if the rest of his game is in order.

The biggest thing that would worry me is the potential for injuries. For instance, I used to watch the frail Petr Svoboda, during his days with the Habs, Sabres and Flyers, hang in fearlessly and get smoked by opposing forwards. As savvy and mobile (and chippy) as he was, every year Svoboda would miss about 20 games due to injury. Unless Blum beefs up, he too, could prove to be injury prone when he faces the constant pounding he'll get in the NHL.

Ellerby is the best equipped physically to handle the NHL game, but when it comes to defensemen, I'll take the demonstrated hockey smarts and/or offensive potential over raw physical ability. Sometimes you'll look foolish in retrospect. But more often than not, you'll either proven right or it'll be a wash at worst.


***

1st round (24th overall)

If any of the players above are still on the board with the 24th pick-- if the projections are accurate, that's very unlikely for Ellerby and Hamill, but possible for some of the others -- I'd be interested.

Brandon Sutter, who has fallen in many rankings, would be a nice pickup in this slot, although his offensive upside may be a little bit overstated.

Colorado College left winger Bill Sweatt's speed makes him an intriguing pick, although his scoring numbers even at the Under-17 and Midget levels were nothing to write home about (he never averaged even a point per game). Ditto University of Michigan bound USHLer Max Pacioretty and his power game.

Here's a rule of thumb on player projections that holds true far more often than it's disproven: Especially for forwards -- even future 3rd liners in the NHL -- offensive dominance at the lower levels of hockey is a virtual prerequisite for a meaningful NHL career. It doesn't guarantee NHL success by a longshot, but the absence of it is almost always an indicator that things won't suddenly come together one day.

Pacioretty had five goals and 19 points in 23 games his first year and 7 goals and 33 points in 26 games in 2005-06. This year, in the USHL, he had 19 goals and 55 points in 52 games. Those are OK numbers, but he'd need significant improvement over the course of his college career to project as anything more than a role player.

Will Oshawa Generals left winger Brett MacLean be on the board at #24? Some projections have him as high as mid first-round, others have him in the early second round. There is a tendency among his detractors to attribute all of his success to playing on John Tavares' line.

Clearly, MacLean's 47-goal, 100-point season was helped immensely by the presence of the 16-year-old wunderkind who has put up Gretzky-like numbers. But is that the only reason?

MacLean has good size and scouts say he shows the work ethic to get himself into high reward/ heavy punishment areas. He's not the best skater around, nor is likely to remind anyone of Jere Lehtinen when it comes to his backchecking prowess. But his righthanded shot on the off-wing finds the target, and paired with a good playmaking center -- funny thing is that he might actually be downgrading when he turns pro -- can be effective.


***
1st round (26th overall)

If I take two forwards with the ninth and 24th picks and either of University of Wisconsin bound defenseman Ryan McDonough or prep school defenseman Tommy Cross (committed to Boston College in the fall of 2008) is still on the board in the 29th slot, I would seriously think about drafting one based on the consensus of my scouts.

However, it wouldn't be the end of the world if I wound up drafting three forwards in the first round. There are still potential NHLers like Nichlas Torp and University of Wisconsin bound Brendan Smith just waiting to be taken later in the draft.

Also now that Jim O'Brien is going to play defense at University of Minnesota, he probably slips to the second round but actually may better his long-term upside as a pro, because he had shown limited offensive promise as a center.

Speaking of forward prospects, I think Oscar Möller is a little bit overrated in some draft projections. He "plays big," hustles and is gritty, but he has the same two strikes against him as Hamill-- lack of speed to compensate for the size issues. He played on a line with Backlund at the U18s and sometimes seemed a step behind. Nevertheless,if he somehow slips to the tail end of the first round, he'd be a great pick at #29, especially if I take a defenseman earlier. The same adjectives also apply to Quebec Remparts winger Ruslan Bashkirov.

If none of these players are on the board, two-way center Joakim Andersson (if available) or Logan MacMillan would be safe picks. Andersson is often compared with Samuel Påhlsson with a tad more offensive upside-- and we've all seen the impact Sammy has had on opposing teams in the playoffs.


***

My ideal first round: Gagner (#9), Eller (#24), McDonough (#26)

Realistic first round: Esposito (#9), MacLean (#24), Andersson (#26)

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