If you've perused this blog's message board thread the last several weeks, you have likely come away with a sense of angst from Hawk fans: what's wrong with our team?
Some fans of other teams pop in at times and remark how great the Hawks look: Keith, Kane, Panarin, Seabrook.
But Hawk fans who've followed this team the last handful of years (or more) sense that something's amiss.
As it stands today, the Hawks are a bubble team. They're pretty healthy; they have the roster they came to camp with. There is no reason to think—and no cavalry yet to come over the hill—that will change, barring a fairly significant roster move.
So what gives?
While there are some obvious differences, I am beginning to see some eerie parallels with the 2010-11 Hawks' team that was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, after barely squeaking by the Dallas Stars to make the postseason.
The previous summer, the Hawks and their fans were riding a wave of success and confidence—they'd just won their first Stanley Cup in 49 years, with a roster bursting at the seams with young talent: Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, Sharp, Byfuglien, Bolland, Campbell, Ladd, Hjalmarsson, Niemi.
Everyone knew the Hawks would need to auction off some talent in the summer to comply with the cap. Every team with cap space was a potential suitor. Then rookie GM Stan Bowman confidently boasted that neither of RFAs Antti Niemi nor Niklas Hjalmarsson "are going anywhere."
But then some Stanley Cup bonuses (that Bowman should have known about) kicked in, Niemi's agent didn't want to play ball, and the team decided (likely rightly so) to match a handsome offer sheet that San Jose presented Hjalmarsson. And Niemi ended up in Silicon Valley, without compensation.
And then Bowman had to scramble to deal Andrew Ladd, who he had not planned to deal, in addition to Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg, and others.
That hurt.
All those assets the Hawks got for dealing all those players—and Bryan Campbell and Troy Brouwer the following summer—have amounted to prospects Gustav Forsling and Philip Danault. That's it.
As a result, the next couple of seasons were a struggle, and the Hawks bowed out in the first round of the playoffs both years.
My heart wants to tell me that this year will be different. My head says, no.
Bowman had a similar post-Cup cap crunch this past summer; he knew he had to deal likely Patrick Sharp and Bryan Bickell in order to get Brandon Saad re-upped. And possibly re-sign Johnny Oduya and Marcus Kruger. But now with 3 Stanley Cups in the bank, the salary landscape was dramatically different for Bowman. He had also just signed Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews to twin $10.5 million per years deals.
The sorting out process was a lot more tricky than it had been in the "salary dump" summer of 2010—when Bowman had many more willing dance partners. Sharp was paid nearly $6 million a year and considered long in the tooth: Bickell, at $4 million a year, was suspected to be damaged goods. Meanwhile, more than one GM was rumored to be preparing an offer sheet for Saad.
The summer of 2015 looked to be a bit of a high-wire act for Bowman. Would he be able to pull it all off?
We now know the answer. He didn't. Not his fault. It was an almost impossible task.
Despite rhetoric from Saad and his camp that he wanted to be in Chicago, he ended up in Columbus. Bowman really pulled off quite a feat getting both Artem Anisimov and Marko Dano for Saad. Anisimov has settled in on what is right now the NHL's best line with Kane and Artemi Panarin (and how smart does THAT signing look now?).
Dano played RW last night, really for the first time this season—where he shined last Spring with Columbus—and he looked like a different player in stretches, albeit playing with a couple of guys named Mashinter and Kero. But he has a ways to go, and if he stays at RW, Joel Quenneville has the same problem he now as to a degree with Marian Hossa on another line—who's the quality left winger who helps get him the puck?
There's the problem.
Bowman hadn't planned on losing his top LW (Saad)—he planned on losing 2-3 other LWs (Sharp, Versteeg and Bickell). He succeeded with Sharp and Versteeg. But Bickell couldn't be traded apparently—and is parked in the AHL now with a significant portion of his salary still counting against the Hawks' cap.
So now the Hawks are really playing with only one top 6 left wing. The team has tried Dano and Teuvo Teravainen there. Both seem really much more comfortable on the right side. Both are young and really just finding their legs in the NHL—and then being asked to not just play their "off" wing, but produce significantly there. The results have not been good for the team or for either player.
The return for Sharp—Trevor Daley and Ryan Garbutt—hasn't been great thus far, either. Daley shows some signs—after a pretty rough start—but is skating about 12 minutes a night on the third pairing, not remotely filing the void left by Johnny Oduya. And nor, really, is Trevor van Riemsdyk fully filling that void. Van Riemsdyk is heady and steady—except when he tries to be a two-way or more offensive defenseman as Oduya's athleticism allowed him to do. He is also being forced to play the left—his off side—a huge ask of a young defenseman.
So you have what you have—a "bubblicious" team with one great scoring line and daily rearrangement of the deck chairs on the other three.
It took two years for the Hawks to work through the repercussions of 2010-11. But it's simple math—the "core" was all 3-4 years younger then than they are now. In both the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, the Hawks seemed to go into the playoffs (they did just squeak in in 2011) with the notion that "hey, once you're in anything can happen." And while that's pretty much self-evident, odds are, anything won't. Rather, the best teams, typically at least somewhat evidenced by their play in the regular season, will probably prevail.
There are those who feel that all the issues with the Hawks right now are just going to organically work themselves out. Even this year. Or that a slight tweaks here or there is enough to really get the Hawks in a groove.
Maybe so.
And others feel this is a team that's played a LOT of physical, grueling, competitive hockey over the last handful of years, and that—along with a lot of new faces— is really affecting this team right now.
So watch closely. The Hawks went "all-in" last Spring with the Vermette trade—but that is a kind of unusually big move for what has been a fairly conservative front office. But everyone knew that was a team that felt like a tweak could get it over the top.
This team seems to need more. Meanwhile, Bickell's contract and a tight cap have Bowman in a pinch—not many moves to make even if he is feeling bold.
So I'm going to just come out and say it—this is really feeling like a rebuilding/developmental year, not unlike 2010-11 and 2011-12.
And if I'm right, hopefully it's one year, rather than 2-3.
I'm sure there will be "robust" message board commentary!
All for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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