The Kings roster is set. The opening night of the NHL is tomorrow.
It is time!
The Kings and their fans embark on the 82-game ritual that spans from October to April and potentially beyond starting tomorrow night. While there will be a fair share of unexpected happenings and talking points, the season is already shaping up in an expected sort of way.
The Kings should be a playoff team. The West will be tight. Arizona will be bad. Edmonton will be unpredictable yet full of potential. We will talk about the Kings great possession game. Finally, Raffi Torres will get suspended. Oh wait....
While these are all pretty ho-hum predictions, let's take a moment and really go at some bold, but not outrageous predictions. Predictions that make you raise your eyebrows but then nod your head in agreement. Not to go TOO Bleacher Report-ish (hey more power to those lists upon lists), here are five bold predictions for the L.A. Kings in this upcoming 2015-16 season.
1. The Los Angeles Kings win the Pacific Division and make the Conference Finals
In the most recent Pacific Division preview on Hockey Prospectus, we pretty much laid out that the division is going to be a pick 'em. The San Jose Sharks improved. The Anaheim Ducks held serve. The Los Angeles Kings improved. Yes, they improved folks. Lucic, Ehrhoff, a healthy Tanner Pearson, and a second year of McNabb will all go a long way in making the Kings a better team this season.
For these reasons, the top three spots are going to be a dog fight, all year. Now add in Calgary who also improved immensely, but still have a long way to go to prove they are not a candidate for extreme regression. Karri Ramo being announced as their opening night starter does not instill a ton of confidence.
Nevertheless, the division is pretty much wide open. The most consistent team over the course of 82 games is likely to be the division title holder. Over the past several years that team has been the Anaheim Ducks. The Kings faltered midseason in 2014-15, and the Sharks faltered down the stretch. Can Anaheim do it again under regular season champion coach Bruce Boudreau? They certainly have to be the favorites right out the gate. However, this division is much closer than many think. Any of San Jose, Anaheim, or Los Angeles could take it. The biggest enemy to the Kings? Themselves. Overcome the annual midseason disaster stretch and they very well could line up as a seed. In line with this prediction? Kings make the conference finals. With a division title, they will draw an outside team in the wild card spot on home ice, while Anaheim and San Jose are left to kill each other in a tight 2-3 seed dog fight. Forget about it.
2. Milan Lucic scores 60 points, Ehrhoff scores 40
The new guys will make a difference. Plain and simple. Barring any sort of disastrous injury setbacks, they are both in an extreme position to succeed.
Lucic is slotted to play first line left wing with Gaborik and Kopitar. The reasons he should be able to succeed have been covered ad nauseam. If he cannot put up at least 40 in that position he may be looking for a new team come this offseason (Vancouver perhaps).
Ehrhoff is likewise in a position to succeed. The Kings are looking to back off of Drew Doughty's minutes from last season. No. 8's average time of ice took a huge jump last season to 28 minutes. That is a significant amount considering his career average is 25:45. Those minutes have to go somewhere, and the prime candidate is Christian Ehrhoff on the second pairing. Ehrhoff's career average is 21:34, but it moves more towards the 23 minute range if you eliminate his younger rookie years. Look for the veteran German to get plenty of ice time this year in an effort to balance out the Kings top 4. He will also see a ton of powerplay time. He has scored over 20 points on the powerplay at several different times in his career and will be an excellent addition to a pretty loaded Kings powerplay unit.
3. Tyler Toffoli scores 35 goals
The Los Angeles Kings don't get many 30+ goal scorers. However, the only thing that kept them from having one last season was usage.
Of the NHL forwards who skated at least 1000 minutes last season, Tyler Toffoli ranked 28th with a 1.24 goals per 60 rating. While that number might not mean much on its own, look at the examples around him.
Nick Foligno scored 31 goals and was right in front of him. Jamie Benn was .04 goals ahead of Tyler Toffoli as well and he scored 35. Sean Monahan was actually BEHIND Toffoli with a 1.17 goals per 60 rating, and he scored 31 goals. The major difference? An average ice time of only 14:35.
He has put in the work, gained the trust of Sutter, proven that he is capable of scoring, and now has another year with Jeff Carter and a healthy Tanner Pearson. If you wanted a fantasy sleeper or a prime candidate for a breakout offensive year, look no further than Tyler Toffoli. Not only will Toffoli be benefitting from another year of Carter and a healthy Pearson, his line will benefit from increased effectiveness of the Kings top line. With Lucic, Gaborik, and Kopitar potentially drawing the top pairings, the second line should see plenty of opportunity against lesser competition.
Bold indeed, but 35 is not out of reach. At minimum he is primed for 30.
4. Michael Mersch comes up midseason....and stays
All it might take is an injury, a hot start, or both. Michael Mersch has made his presence felt in Kings hockey land over the past six months. His outstanding second half in the AHL and noteworthy preseason performance has him on the inside track as the next Kings call-up. We discussed the little things he has done that fit in with Kings hockey in the last post.
Check it out now if you haven't.
Mersch's send down came on the back of a numbers game. His waiver exemption coupled with several other players waiver eligible status ultimately drew the safer and smarter roster management move from Dean Lombardi. He will not be down long. Like we have seen in the past, the Kings are partial to the late season call up. I am not trying to be Nostradamus here, but Dwight King and Jordan Nolan call-ups were paramount to a 2011-12 cup run. Furthermore, the boost from Toffoli and Pearson in 2013-14 were also key elements in the post-season chapter. Maybe the Kings just like to do things every other year. Mersch and (Player to be named later) called up in January, Kings make a run in 2015-16. Is it that easy?
Either way, Mersch plays a very aesthetically pleasing game for the Kings. He fits the style, fits the system, and when given the opportunity he probably will not disappoint.
5. One of the core is traded
Maybe it comes early, maybe it comes at the deadline, heck maybe it comes in the waining days of the 2015-16 season and before the draft. However, there is a definite feeling around the Kings right now that there are a lot of bodies for too few spots and too little money. With a pending contract coming to Anze Kopitar, a couple of key free agents this coming offseason (Lewis, Lucic, McNabb), and some big restricted free agents the following year (Toffoli, Shore, Pearson), the Kings have a transition to make. Does that mean getting rid of Brown? Maybe dealing Lewis or King? Are Nolan and Clifford safe even after the extension? What about an aging Gaborik and Carter? Or Matt Greene?
Just as we saw the Kings part ways with Justin Williams, decisions will have to be made. It will be all the more difficult of a decision if the Kings are in a position to win or go to the postseason. It is hard to break up a winning formula, but if it means a better long term outlook, it might be done. This one is the boldest of bold, but it could happen. We did not call them bold predictions for nothing.
Have a few of your own? Hit that comments section!
Enjoy one last sleep before your dark master returns to occupy your evenings for the next several months, my readers. The NHL start is upon us.
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