I would like to hear from anyone out there who saw this one coming? I would venture a guess that at least 90% of the millions predicting who would land in the Eastern Conference Final had Pittsburg in Boston starting today...Not the Rangers starting in Montreal with a chance to play for the Cup on the line. The fact that each of these teams finds themselves 4 wins away from a trip to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in 20 years is a testament to the emotion these teams both have brought to this post season...
So Let's go! or as they say in Montréal (and in the words of the 10th Doctor Who...) "Allons-y!"
This season....
These teams met 3 times and combined for a grand total of FOUR goals. The Habs winning twice by shutout and the Rangers once by shutout. The Rangers only managed to score a single goal against the Habs. One goal in three games..The Habs only scored three goals....
The Last Three Seasons..
It even gets more remarkable... Over the last three seasons these teams have met 10 times. The Canadiens winning 7 and the Rangers winning 3. However, 6 of the those ten games ended in a shutout, including the last FIVE games these teams have played each other!
Want to even hear a crazier stats? In the last 6 games the Rangers have face the Canadiens they have been shutout 4 times and and have been outscore 12-2. Two goals scored for NY in the last 6 games against Montreal. In the last 6 games IN the Bell Centre the Rangers have been outscored 15-2.
All Time...
In Montreal...
The Habs have dominated the Rangers in their home city...
Montreal: 223 Wins
NY Rangers 77 Wins
41 Ties
In Madison Square Garden...
They are dead even...scary even!
Montreal: 140 Wins with 958 Goals Scored
NY Rangers 140 Wins with 959 Goals Scored
Ties:54
Matchups...
These teams are very similar in so many ways. Both depend heavily on the goalies of course, and both have needed to get scoring from all over to survive this long. Neither team has a forward who can take over a game, but Montreal does a have that kind of player in PK Subban.
The interesting thing about the two goalies is while both have been considered legit stars in their home cities for years it is very recent that each has risen to the level, and appeared comfortable in the role of, legit superstar. Price and Lundqvist are BOTH at the top of their games right now. In fact, I would challenge all of you to remember a series where two great established goalies faced each other when they were both playing the best and most dominating hockey of their careers.
Yes, I believe it was Philly reporter Al Morganti who termed the expression: "This sport should be called 'Goalie' instead of hockey."
Ek's Factors..
Its is quite simple. Emotion. Both teams have it in spades and both have shown how playing a team playing with emotion is like holding a tiger by the tail. The Marty St Louis tragedy has really pulled the Rangers together and they are the closest Rangers team I have seen in twenty years. The Rangers believe in each other and really do see themselves as a Team of Destiny.
The Canadiens emotion comes from an "Us against the World" motto which at times have been the players against their opponents but more often this season has been the players against their head coach Michel Therrien. Therrien's antics have practically torn this team apart this year. His treatment of respected players in the room has bonded these players...From PK Subban and the Olympic luke-warm recommendations early on to Bourque getting no ice time and demanding a trade most of the year, to Briere for the first time in his career being kept out of the core veteran leadership group during the season and then being inexplicably scratched in the postseason (but having to dress for warmups anyway) this season could have imploded at any point but somehow didn't. The credit for that goes 100% to the players. The Habs are playing for themselves and winning despite their coach. That is clear and evident to all in the NHL you talk to..
Outlook...
Saying will be low scoring games is stating the obvious. Guessing who that works to better is a very tough call. The Canadiens SHOULD win this series, but looking back to the way Therrien coached the 1-0 OT loss to the Bruins in the last round there is very good chance the Vigneault will out coach Therrien. The difference may be as simple as AV's letting his players "play to win" while MT team could continue to be coached "not to lose." Unless Therrien has learned something from the first two rounds. Or unless Price out duals Lundqvist.
Therrien needs to look at where the offensive results are coming from . Rene Bourque started off the playoffs "white hot" but that didn't look good on Therrien who didn't use him much all year so after scoring 4 goals in the first 5 playoff games Therrien cut his minutes back. Dale Weise was the first star in game 1 despite playing hardly any minutes in that game and also scored the most important goal of the season to give the Habs a 1-0 lead in game 7...Weise has 3-2-5 and is a +3 in the playoffs despite playing barely over 10 minutes. Briere was the hero in Game 7, is also a +3, is 7th on the team in scoring (despite being scratched last series) and playing less minutes every game then the game before...Briere is by far leading the Habs in points per minutes played...he is actually leading every playoff player in the NHL this post season in points per minute played....Meanwhile Gionta sits far below Bourque, Weise and Briere in every category...except one...He is playing almost twice as many minutes per game.
It will be interesting to see how Therrien responds today. In the past every time Briere and Weise performed really well they would see less ice time as a reward...like Bourque has seen in the playoffs so far. Therrien uses the excuse of their defensive abilities...despite the fact that Weise and Briere lead the Habs forwards in +/- at +3....while below more ice time is given to Gallagher +1, Vanek EVEN, Paccioretty EVEN and Pleks is a -4.
Prediction:
This series really will depend on the smallest things. Big plays and clutch times. Were all things equal and I believed the Habs were going to get their big game players out there for more than 4th line minutes I would lean towards the Canadiens. However, seeing the Habs play two OT games against Boston where Therrien was simply in a defensive shell doesn't bode well. My instincts are that this series comes down to bench management and knowing when to sneak your clutch players onto the ice...not simply hoping that your star goalie and your star defender can carry you to four wins.
The Habs are now playing Lundqvist...and he is playing spectacular hockey. They will need to create offense to move on.
So I am picking the pick 'em series based on which coach i think can handle this. I have covered both these guys in depth when each went to the finals before...I have to say the Rangers have the advantage behind the bench. If Therrien puts all else aside and lets his best players be his best players I will gladly be wrong on this pick...remember, my second favorite team since I was eight years old in Montreal..
But my pick: Rangers in 7
Yours?
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