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Looking at 9 on the Bubble for Team Canada. A Very Strong Case for Giroux |
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Let’s face it. Team Canada is stacked up front and there is no doubt Steve Yzerman could probably ice the two best offensive teams in the Olympics were he allowed to. It really is not surprising that Team Canada is taking their time with the announcement of their roster. This is tough. I mean...REALLY tough.
Of course there are some givens....
Crosby, Stamkos, Getzlaf, Tavares, Perry, Toews, and Matt Duchene are who I consider the locks for the squad, but that still leaves 5 forwards to fill out your top 12...and then a couple extra players...
As I see it, those next spots will be filled by some of the foillowing nine players...
Patrice Bergeron, Joe Thornton, Chris Kunitz, Patrick Sharp, Claude Giroux, Jamie Benn, Mike Richards, and Logan Couture.
So how do you decide? When you look at the fact these guys will be your third and fourth liners for the most part, Team Canada needs to look to add a balance of skill sets, and find the “gamers” in the group, because as is always the case in any tournament or Stanley Cup Playoffs, the team with the depth at scoring usually is the team left celebrating at the end.
So let’s look at these nine in several categories...
Point Production is of course the easiest to look at. Whoever Canada adds will be called upon to score and with Stamkos possibly not there yet could find himself in serious top 6 minutes and with power play time.
Starting with this year....
Points This Year So Far.
Thornton 44
Kunitz 43
Sharp 41
St Louis 38
Giroux 37
Benn 35
Couture 32
Mike Richards 28
Patrice Bergeron 23
Joe Thornton has been an assist machine once again and Kunitz has really made a case that he should be with #87 in this game.
However, when you look at point production since December first Claude Giroux makes an enormous case....
Points Since December 1.
Giroux 7-12-19
Kunitz 7-8-15
Thornton 1-14-15
St Louis 7-7-14
Sharp 12-6-18
Bergeron 2-9-11
Benn 6-5-11
Richards 0-8-8
Couture 3-2-5
In fact when you put the “locks” into this only Crosby has out-performed Giroux since December 1.
Crosby 9-14-23
Giroux 7-12-19
Duchene 4-13-17
Getzlaf 7-9-16
Tavares 7-9-16
Kunitz 7-8-15
Thornton 1-14-15
Perry 7-7-14
St Louis 7-7-14
Sharp 12-6-18
Bergeron 2-9-11
Benn 6-5-11
Richards 0-8-8
Couture 3-2-5
But looking back at our nine players on the bubble, lets look at the points over the last four seasons...since the last Olympics....
St Louis 271
Giroux 254
Thornton 231
Kunitz 204
Sharp 201
Couture 190
Benn 187
Bergeron 176
Richards 170
Again. Giroux shows strong, in fact Joe Thornton, considered among the best playmakers in the NHL, has put up 180 assists over the last four years and surprisingly that is only two assists more than Claude Giroux’s 178.
Clutch Play
Scoring points is one thing, but this is a quick tournament. This is about high intensity and players who can raise their game. So let’s look at game winning goals over the past four years...
Game Winning Goals Last Four Years.
Couture 20
Sharp 17
Giroux 16
Kunitz 14
St Louis 15
Benn 14
Bergeron 12
Richards 10
Thornton 6
Logan Couture is a clutch player despite having played in less games in his career than any of the other nine players on this list. Patrick Sharp and Claude Giroux also impress here...
But how about the playoffs? Playing when it really matters. Who can step up to that next level. First I calculated the points per game in the regular season for our nine.
Regular Season Career Points Per Game
Thornton .99
St Louis .93
Giroux .88
Bergeron .74
Richards .74
Kunitz .72
Benn .72
Sharp .70
Couture .73
Then the playoffs...
Playoff Career Points Per Game
Giroux 1.10
St Louis 1.08
Richards 0.83
Thornton 0.78
Sharp 0.73
Bergeron 0.69
Couture 0.67
Kunitz 0.59
Benn No Playoff Games
So who lifts their game and who falls back? For NHL fans these next numbers probably aren’t surprising....
Points Per Game in Playoffs versus Regular Season
Giroux +0.22
St Louis +.15
Richards +.09
Sharp +.03
Bergeron -.05
Couture -.06
Kunitz -.13
Thornton -.21
Again Claude makes his case. Giroux has consistently stepped it up when the most pressure was on the line. His performance pre-lockout versus the Penguins in the playoffs saw his popularity sky-rocket and his face land on NHL 12. In December, Giroux has played at that same level. Taking the Flyers on his back and pushing them from the bottom of the league into a playoff spot.
But the Olympics aren’t an All-Star game. How about toughness.
Hits so far this Season
Kunitz 91
Benn 64
Giroux 43
Richards 34
Sharp 33
Bergeron 28
Thornton 20
St Louis 12
Couture 9
Kunitz and Benn show a ton here. Kunitz’s 91 hits is a staggering number.
Team Canada History....
Any NHL Hockey player will tell you they have two distinctly different careers. One in the NHL and one Internationally playing for their country. Country GMs take the NHL stats into account for sure, but the history these players have playing for their countries can’t be played down...
So let’s look at our nine again in this context...
Points Per Game Playing for Team Canada
Thornton 0.96
Bergeron 0.94
Giroux 0.93
Benn 0.79
Kunitz 0.78
St Louis 0.73
Richards 0.71
Couture 0.67
Sharp 0.65
This is where Bergeron shines. His NHL stats this year are not up to snuff when it comes to making this team, but as every Canadian hockey fan will tell you...he will be there. (Bergeron does hold the second best face-off percentage in the entire NHL right now. That is also very important to his making this team.)
In fact, when you look at the top even strength face-off leaders you can surmise how Team Canada may start with the puck quite often in Sochi...
#1 Bergeron
#2 Crosby
#3 Toews
#4 Vermette
#5 M Koivu
#6 Boyd Gordon
#7 Claude Giroux
#8 Spezza
#9 Kopitar
#10 Gaustad
So who makes it?
Based on these stats. the first off the bubble should be Claude Giroux who is near the top at almost every turn. He would be a lock were it not for a horrible start this year..but he has been at the top of his game for well over a month now.
I would also add Kunitz, Sharp, St Louis and Mike Richards for their complete games and the leadership they bring. My two extra forwards...assuming Canada goes with two extra forwards would be Thornton and Bergeron. Couture and Benn would just miss out.
But that is just my opinion...
Who do you think should go?
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