Following yesterday's official announcement of the Stadium Series, I wanted to get back to the 20+ off-season questions, as one of the non-game related discussions that transpired related to a pair of the 20+ offseason questions. We have already covered the Stepan one in question #7, with the only mildly newsworthy part the fact the Rangers could try and sign him to a bridge deal, which is something we have discussed repeatedly before. Today is Lundqvist's turn.
As a reminder here is a
link to the 20+ questions, per the blogs to date, I have covered questions 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 14.
3. Will Henrik Lundqvist sign an extension with the Rangers, and can the Rangers allow him to head into this season, the final year of his deal, as a potential UFA given his non-committal response when asked if he will re-sign with the team?
To start, I will hearken you back
six years ago to where Lundqvist signed a one-year contract worth $4.25 million that acted as a bridge that enabled the Rangers to get through a 2007-08 season in which they had little cap room (see Stepan, Derek above). Were he to have played out the contract and made it to July 1 without a new deal in place, Lundqvist would have become a restricted free agent. That February, Lundvist and the Rangers agreed on a new deal for six years, $41.25 million. The final numbers of which were: 2008-09 = $7.75 million; 2009-10 = $6.875 million; 2010-11 = $7.75 million; 2011-12 and 2012-13 = $6.875 million; 2013-14 = $5.125 million (one interesting point is that even then, salaries were front-loaded with declining numbers later in the deal to avoid a major cash hit at end in case a trade was to occur).
With the signing of that deal, starting the 2008-09 season, Lundqvist had the highest
Goaltender Salary in the Eastern Conference (second was Tomas Vokoun at $5.5 mil with Martin Brodeur third at $5.2 million) and was second in the Western Conference behind Miikka Kiprusoff, who was at $8.5 mil, and ahead of Roberto Luongo, $7 mil, and Nikolai Khabibulin at $6.75 mil. At the time the deal was signed, many of us felt that Lundqvist may have been slightly overpaid, given what others were making and where he was in his career, especially when factoring the available cap space moving forward. Obviously, as time has showed, he has earned that salary, though many still believe that his inability to carry the team on his back to a Stanley Cup Championship is an indication that he was overpaid and should impact his new deal (editor's note: I am not one who has that thought since without him, no way the Rangers make the playoffs, let alone win a round).
Heading to the 2012-13 season, here is where Lundqvist stood in salary and cap number in the
Top-20 Goaltender Salaries for that season. As you see, salary and cap hit wise, Lundqvist was second in the league. If you flip this for cap hit, the top-10 was Rinne, Lundqvist, Price, Ward, Miller, Backstrom, Kiprusoff, Bryzgalov, Luongo and Fleury. The raises for Lehtonen ($5.9 million cap hit) and Quick ($5.8 mil cap hit) don't take effect until this season.
RK Player Team 2012-13 Salary 2012-13 Cap # 2013-14 Salary
1 Pekka Rinne NAS $7,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000
2 Henrik Lundqvist NYR $6,875,000 $6,875,000 $5,125,000
3 Roberto Luongo VAN $6,714,000 $5,333,000 $6,714,000
4 Ilya Bryzgalov PHI $6,500,000 $5,667,000 $8,000,000
5 Cam Ward CAR $6,400,000 $6,300,000 $6,600,000
6 Ryan Miller BUF $6,250,000 $6,250,000 $6,250,000
7 Niklas Backstrom MIN $6,000,000 $6,000,000 UFA
8 Marc-Andre Fleury PIT $5,500,000 $5,000,000 $5,750,000
9 Carey Price MTL $5,500,000 $6,500,000 $5,750,000
10 Miikka Kiprusoff CGY $5,000,000 $5,833,000 $1,500,000
11 Rick DiPietro NYI $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $4,500,000
12 Jonas Hiller ANA $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $4,500,000
13 Jaroslav Halak STL $4,250,000 $3,750,000 $4,500,000
14 Kari Lehtonen DAL $4,250,000 $3,550,000 $6,250,000
15 Antti Niemi SJS $4,000,000 $3,800,000 $4,000,000
16 Martin Brodeur NJD $4,000,000 $4,500,000 $5,000,000
17 Nikolai Khabibulin EDM $3,750,000 $3,750,000 UFA
18 Cory Schneider VAN $3,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000
19 Tuukka Rask BOS $3,500,000 $3,500,000 UFA
20 Devan Dubnyk EDM $3,250,000 $3,500,000 $3,750,000
As of this moment, Rinne (seven years, $49 million) and Rask (seven years, $56 million deal signed with Boston this off-season) both have the highest cap hit for 2013-14 at $7 mil per AAV. Lundqvist is third followed by Price (six years, $39 million signed with Montreal last season), Ward, Miller, Lehtonen, Kiprusoff, Quick, Smith (who signed a six-year, $33 million deal to stay in Phoenix), Bobrovsky (signed for two years with Columbus), Luongo, Howard (six years, $31.75 million deal to stay in Detroit), Fleury, Hiller and Brodeur.
Player Team Age Start End Years Amount
1 Rinne, Pekka » NAS 30 2012 2019 7 $7,000,000
2 Rask, Tuukka » BOS 26 2013 2021 8 $7,000,000
3 Lundqvist, Henrik » NYR 31 2008 2014 6 $6,875,000
4 Price, Carey » MTL 25 2012 2018 6 $6,500,000
5 Ward, Cam » CAR 29 2010 2016 6 $6,300,000
6 Miller, Ryan » BUF 33 2009 2014 5 $6,250,000
7 Lehtonen, Kari » DAL 29 2013 2018 5 $5,900,000
8 Kiprusoff, Miikka » CGY 36 2008 2014 6 $5,833,333
9 Quick, Jonathan » LAK 27 2013 2023 10 $5,800,000
10 Smith, Mike » PHX 31 2013 2019 6 $5,666,667
11 Bobrovsky, Sergei » CLB 24 2013 2015 2 $5,625,000
12 Luongo, Roberto » VAN 34 2010 2022 12 $5,333,333
13 Howard, Jimmy » DET 29 2013 2019 6 $5,291,667
14 Fleury, Marc-Andre » PIT 28 2008 2015 7 $5,000,000
15 Hiller, Jonas » ANA 31 2010 2014 4 $4,500,000
16 Brodeur, Martin » NJD 41 2012 2014 2 $4,500,000
Rask’s deal has mild upswing and then drop in salary, starting at $6 mil this year, rises to $7.5 mil for the next four years, then down to $7 mil in 2018-19 and $6.5 mil the last two years of his deal. The difference is Rask is 26, four years younger than Rinne and five years younger than Lundqvist, so the belief is the best is yet to come for him with little degradation as he ages. The challenging part now is how many years to give Lundqvist and how much?
The consternation that existed right after the season has seemingly been addressed with Tortorella getting fired. Of course, Lundqvist said all the right things that he didn't want him fired etc., but his lukewarm responses about returning after the season sparked a firestorm about will he or won't he be back. That seems to have dissipated, further evidence of which was the remarks at the Stadium Series by assistant GM Jeff Gorton, who said that some issues need to be worked out (meaning $ and years) but “Henrik wants to be here and we want Henrik…at the end of the day… it shouldn’t be too difficult to get a deal….I think we will get one done."
Right now, the highest cap hit in the league is Alex Ovechkin at $9,538,462 followed by Malkin and Crosby at $8.7 mil, Perry at $8.625 and Staal/Getzlaf at $8.2 mil (Malkin's new deal takes effect next year, where his cap hit is $9.5 mil for the next eight seasons). The highest salary for this year Shea Weber at $14 million (which was his salary last year as well as well as for the next three seasons, before dropping to $12 mil for two years, $6 mil for four years and then to $3 mil for one and $1 mil the last three seasons of his 14-year deal). Behind Weber is Crosby, Parise and Suter at $12 mil. So where does Hank fit him?
We can use the argument, backed up by his placement in the Vezina Trophy race, that he has best the best, having been nominated for the Vezina the past two years, winning it in 2012, along with nominations in 2006-2008, and possibly most valuable goaltender in the league (winning Team MVP for the Rangers the past seven years). He will be 32 during the season and believes he can play another 7-8 years. The Rangers are shifting styles, moving from a defensive oriented, shock-blocking style to one of a hybrid approach, where offense flows from defense, puck-possession and strong O-zone play is key and players are utilized differently based on the situation to succeed. I would expect the shot attempts to drop slightly but quality chances to rise a bit as less shots are blocked. In addition, the team should score more, which will take some pressure off Lundqvist to stand on his head nightly and hope 1-2 goals hold up but will also call for him to make more big saves, since the team could struggle to hold leads based on the style change.
Based on the above, Lundqvist's pedigree to date, his ability to play for stretches at a clip with little decline in play, going 7-8 years does not seem so far-fetched. Now the really hard part, the dollars. If Lundqvist expects to have an Ovechkin or Malkin cap hit per year, especially given the slight decline in cap room, even with expectation of rise next year and beyond, I just don't see the Rangers doing it. Can I see them giving him a higher AAV than Rinne and Rask? Yes, as that would seem to be the starting point. Can I see them paying him Weber-like money for the first several years of his deal? Unlikely, but I can see them front-loading the deal a bit with declines over the balance of the deal. One key to remember is that per the new CBA, the variance from year to year in salary is 35% (However, the lowest number can only be 50% of highest (so if one year the max is $10m, the lowest figure in the deal must be $5m). For example, what about 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6 and 6 for a total of $65 over eight years or slightly over $8 million per. Of course, Lundqvist may have the view that his play won't degrade that much and therefore his salary shouldn't decline that much over time and his cap hit should be higher. In addition, Sather has done a good job of re-signing his players to lower-than-expected amounts, and maybe the lure of remaining in NY as well as the endorsement deals he receives here may be enough to reduce the salary and cap hit, but I doubt it. If the Rangers do sign him to this type of deal, he would be top-five in salary for next season and his cap hit would be seventh in the league next year.
In summary, sign Lundqvist for eight years with an average AAV of $8.125 per season, broken down by year at 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6 and 6 million.
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