The Toronto Maple Leafs have reached a critical point in their off-season, as the arbitration hearing for defenseman Mark Fraser is scheduled to take place on Tuesday.
Fraser stands to be the first player to not reach a compromise deal with his club this summer and the outcome of his contract squabble may have consequences for him but also for defense partner and fellow restricted free agent Cody Franson.
21 RFA's qualified for and chose to file for salary arbitration in early July, six of those settled with their clubs before the date of the hearing was determined, while another 12 players reached a deal before scheduled date.
The 26-year-old blueliner turned down the Leafs one-year qualifying offer(which would have been a two way deal), in hopes of negotiating a one-way deal. According to the Toronto Sun's Lance Hornby, the two sides have had no contact in the past week and are unlikely to reach a settlement before the hearing.
Only three RFA’s remain on the hearing list; Fraser, New York Rangers forward Mats Zuccarello and Winnipeg’s Zach Bogosian.
Of the 18 players who settled their arbitration cases, four were defenseman:
Carl Gunnarsson(TOR) - $3.15 Million x 3 Years
Paul Postma(WIN) - $712,500 x 2 Years
Alec Martinez(LA) - $1.1 Million x 2 Years
Jake Muzzin(LA) - $1 Million x 2 Years
TSN's Darren Dreger reported on Sunday that the Leafs and Fraser are miles apart on the amount of a new deal. The club is offering $855,000, while the defenseman is asking for a $2 Million award.
Based on the deals negotiated so far, if the two sides went through to the end of the arbitration process, the Leafs offer of $855,000 would appear to be more in line with the other defensemen, but whether the arbitrator comes to the same conclusion is why both sides usually opt for a settlement.
Assuming Fraser and the Leafs reach a deal before Tuesday, it will likely be in the neighborhood of $1 Million per season, on par with Martinez and Muzzin’s deals and the amount that Toronto signed veteran blueliner Paul Ranger to last week.
That would leave around $4.5 Million left under the salary cap to sign restricted free agents Cody Franson and Nazem Kadri.
After the signings of Gunnarsson and Ranger, rumors of Franson being shopped emerged, as his salary demands were thought to be in excess of $4 Million per season, but based on what has happened so far this off-season, it is hard to imagine the Leafs moving a player who thrived under coach Randy Carlyle over someone like John-Michael Liles, who struggled to get into the lineup.
It is a Mikhail Grabovski – Tyler Bozak scenario all over again.
Liles has three years left on his deal at $3.875 Million per season, but has valuable qualities as a puck moving blueliner and power play quarterback.
The Leafs do not have the compliance buyout option available to them after using their allotted two on Mike Komisarek and Grabovski and there is no window available for a regular buyout until next summer, but the Leafs can retain salary on one more traded player this season.
John-Michael Liles buyout from CapGeek.com
2013-14: $875,000
2014-15: $875,000
2015-16: $2,375,000
2016-17: $1,250,000
2017-18: $1,250,000
2018-19: $1,250,000
If the true agenda here is to get Fraser and Franson signed for as economical an amount as possible and moving Liles, the Leafs may be willing to pay up to what it would have cost them in a buyout to clear $3 Million in clear cap room.
If Fraser goes to arbitration and wins, then GM Dave Nonis has painted himself into a corner.
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